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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@RichardDNagel Deficits are down 70% in 2022 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Paradoxically it is when markets pull back that governments cash in, as sales cause the realization of cap. gains. When an asset goes from 0 to 3 Trillion back to 0, as wih cryptos, government gains. Taxes are asymmetric: capital losses generate a credit ag. future taxes. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
MONETARY POLICY & Hidden Gains 2022 saw a boost in tax revenues. How? Since 2008, Low rates caused >100 T of asset inflation HENCE unrealized gains. That represents ~10-30 T of future Capital Gain Taxes, vastly more than the corresponding deficit! [Finance is Hard] 1/n — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Ottoman Turkish (particularly the one used in scholarly texts) was much closer to Arabic bef the Kemalist program Turkified the vocabulary. Not only do today's Turks have difficulty w/the Osmanli script, but they have trouble w/the vocabulary, relying on N. Syrian translators. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@rusruskov Also Ottoman Turkish reads much more like Arabic, from the choice of words. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@IbeSaid Also many conflators on the upper end, mostly genetics. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Nation-States destroyed the Mediterranean. [Also note signs in French as the Jewish upper class used French] — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Antonopoulos 🇬🇷🇨🇾 @oulosP
Constantinople 1910 - Note the hotel sign in Armenian, Greek and Ottoman Turkish. https://t.co/2UJmNtdYwT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@jstarklefkowitz @AlexMcDougallMD Also there is a problem saying "athletes live longer", given the selection bias: those with overall fitness become athletes. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
I guess the story abt Nato expansion and Nazi purge has been superseded by one of imperial (re)conquest and glory. — PolitiTweet.org
ian bremmer @ianbremmer
putin compares himself to czar peter the great: both “returning” land to russia and restoring power (one rather… https://t.co/wphsKORxtc
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@KO_Sulli Which Dave? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@omar_ghxd Still is — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
We must thank "Peter Hypochondria" @PeterAttiMD for showing the importance of VO2. However like IQ it is a negative measure; it correlates w/mortality (when low) but there is no evidence the relation continues at high levels. Beyond the "above average" ~no drop in risk factor. https://t.co/eIVeCRU2Tc — PolitiTweet.org
Peter Attia @PeterAttiaMD
1/5 VO2 max is highly correlated with longevity. In fact, few variables are more strongly correlated. Watch this… https://t.co/WET5kVtZfp
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@bthornicroft Did self identifying as Looong $TSLA cause you to be an idiot or were you one before beging Loooong $TSLA? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpawlo @jeffraich @moneandrei @petenajarian @MarketRebels No, I give up ownership. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @MasaSkiba: When someone says about a paper "there is nothing deep or new", it means that 1) it is deep, 2) it is new, & more importantl… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@financequant @Amy_S_K_Wong هاذا تويتر — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@LorenzoWVilla @der_iidiot @ducciolvp @jamil_borgi Actually it was the Bronx — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@LorenzoWVilla @der_iidiot @ducciolvp @jamil_borgi Hush please! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@gabriele_butti Not at all. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@omar_ghxd Both. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@omar_ghxd Esma yunéné — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
3/ Go back and check the numerous times when Tesla was on the brink of going bust. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
INFLATION (again) When discussing the inflation of 2022 (like parrots), make sure you incorporate the deflation of 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@omar_ghxd Ahla min 3indna. East Med. fiyon ba2d rum — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@flaneur_a Much much much more solid, less boldness. But he was helped by the great bull market. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2/2 Explanation: the point is simple; for most classes of probability distributions, you get to the tail by increasing the variance (or the scale) rather than raising the expectation. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Elon Musk illustrates my #FooledbyRandomness point: solid financial success is largely the result of skills, hard work, and wisdom. But wild success (in the far tail) is more likely to be the result of reckless betting, extreme luck, & the opposite of wisdom: folly. 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @black_swan_man: Now would you want Spitz’s returns after 300 rolls? (comment below) Part 2 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #SafeHa… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2/My BTC "black paper" below showed the Pareto distribution of ownership (exponent ~1.15), hence the impossibility of true decentralization of the network. The article reconfirmed it. https://t.co/r9jstDBNZ3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
SPURIOUS CLAIMS OF BITCOIN DECENTRALIZATION A NYT article reveals that in spite of the claims, BTC has never been decentralized, thus making my absorbing barrier risk real (see my paper showing BTC worth 0). The study is much clearer than the NYT article. https://t.co/s8JiKHI6XF https://t.co/uWKtOuYe4d — PolitiTweet.org
