David Gauke

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 I accept that no choices were good. But any form of Brexit had to address the problem that divergence required a border somewhere - GB/NI, NI/RoI or RoI/rEU. It wasn't about losing leverage, it was about the realities of trade. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Given the PM's commitment to leave on 31/10 (the basis on which he won ERG support for the Tory leadership), but for the Benn-Burt Act, I think it was almost inevitable that the UK would've left the EU without a deal on that date. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

I think his answers raise a large number of issues. But to pick up just one, if the UK was going to insist on a position of not undertaking border checks GB-NI and said "it's your problem, EU", I cannot see how the EU could've agreed a deal in autumn 2019. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Yesterday, I asked @Dominic2306 about his preferred approach to the NI border issue & whether this could've resulted in a deal with the EU in autumn 2019. He engaged seriously & his answers were clear & illuminating (although IMO his approach reckless). Do read the thread. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Yes, I do recall that last bit! My view was that the experience of a No Deal Brexit would’ve been such that many Leave voters would’ve said “we voted for Brexit but we didn’t mean this.” But if priority was leaving at any price, your approach (on the whip etc) was the right one. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Fair enough. Thanks for engaging. The answers have been very candid and interesting (although, from the perspective of someone who wanted to avoid No Deal, I’m more convinced than ever that the Benn-Burt Act was necessary.) — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Care to put a percentage likelihood on the EU accepting such a deal? (“God knows” doesn’t sound very Tetlock! Or does reflect an ambivalence as to whether a deal was reached?) — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Thanks for the clarity. Assuming that line was held, my view is that the overwhelming probability was that we’d have left the EU without a deal on 31/10 but for the Benn Act. But I assume you think there was a reasonable chance (50%?) of the EU agreeing a deal on those terms? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 But in September 2019, had Benn Act not passed, in the deal you were trying to get before 31/10, what was your intention re goods checks? Not sure if you’re saying “we’d have got a deal in which we didn’t have checks GB/NI & we wouldn’t build anything NI/RoI”. Was that feasible? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Just to clarify does this counter factual apply just to VL running things from 06/16 or also the situation in 09/19 pre Benn-Burt? In other words, was the deal you hoped for before Benn-Burt passed one that meant no GB/NI checks & it’s for the EU to deal with their SM issue? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 OK - that’s a very clear answer. And in those circumstances, do you think the EU would’ve agreed a tariff-free, quota-free trade deal? And do you think this approach would’ve caused UK/US tensions? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 So would the outcome have been? Border checks NI/RoI? A technological solution? Presumably there’d have to be checks of some sort if UK/EU regulatory and customs divergence? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @Dominic2306: @DavidGauke Yes, the deal we signed in 19 obv meant some checks needed. This was consequence of long string of errors in s… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @Dominic2306: @DavidGauke But while some checks were in original deal, any reasonable person can only conclude it is self-contradictory… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 In your eyes, what was the nature of the deal you could’ve got with the EU (but for the mistakes/actions of others) re goods checks? Where would the good checks have been if not GB/NI? NI/RoI? Or a technological solution that meant no border checks? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Some real treats here. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @DavidGauke: Solving problems by creating new problems - how Dominic Cummings left us with a Prime Minister who “doesn’t have a plan, he… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @redhistorian: "He has had extraordinary tactical successes, but these successes have always been essentially destructive. ... His recor… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Solving problems by creating new problems - how Dominic Cummings left us with a Prime Minister who “doesn’t have a plan, he doesn’t know how to be prime minister”, who is “not… the right person to be running the country”. Me for @newstatesman. https://t.co/UNgCVcMADE — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @WeAreBrightBlue: Listen to our director @RyanShorthouse on the @guardian’s Politics Weekly @GuardianHeather asks @RyanShorthouse, @jil… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Putting aside for the moment the debate over the Benn-Burt Act (I think we'd have left without a deal on 31/10 and you disagree), that is an acknowledgement that the NIP involved agreeing to checks from GB to NI. — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 On the specific point of whether the Protocol required checks on goods from GB to NI, was that opaque? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @DavidGauke: My piece for @newstatesman on Dominic Cummings and why, it turns out, the end doesn’t always justify the means. https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @jhawksworth5: Fully agree with this analysis by @DavidGauke particularly where the end is defined by an unelected advisor with evident… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @DavidGauke: My piece in @newstatesman on Dominic Cummings' record - extraordinary tactical but destructive successes; never succeeding… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @JohnRentoul: Cummings “solved” problems by causing more: @DavidGauke Also, this https://t.co/OpabgTfuEq https://t.co/J9jP6m28pB — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

My piece for @newstatesman on Dominic Cummings and why, it turns out, the end doesn’t always justify the means. https://t.co/UNgCVcMADE — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

Unaccountable elites, eh? — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

RT @DavidGauke: What is the result of Dominic Cummings' supposed ceaseless quest to deliver a system of government that is competent and ri… — PolitiTweet.org

David Gauke @DavidGauke

@GavinBarwell @Dominic2306 That’s very kind. Emotions still run high, clearly. — PolitiTweet.org