David Gauke

@DavidGauke ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Sun Jul 25 17:05:03 +0000 2021

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Care to put a percentage likelihood on the EU accepting such a deal? (“God knows” doesn’t sound very Tetlock! Or does reflect an ambivalence as to whether a deal was reached?) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2021

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Thanks for the clarity. Assuming that line was held, my view is that the overwhelming probability was that we’d have left the EU without a deal on 31/10 but for the Benn Act. But I assume you think there was a reasonable chance (50%?) of the EU agreeing a deal on those terms? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2021

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

@Dominic2306 Fair enough. Thanks for engaging. The answers have been very candid and interesting (although, from the perspective of someone who wanted to avoid No Deal, I’m more convinced than ever that the Benn-Burt Act was necessary.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2021