Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the Northeast and the Midwest, Democratic districts are growing faster (or shrinking less slowly) than Republican ones. This is NOT true in the South, though, where some majority-Black districts are losing population relative to their states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Did this quickly so possibly some errors but this is a quick summary of where Democratic districts (based on House membership, not the presidential vote) are overpopulated relative to Republican ones or vice versa based on 2020 Census data. https://t.co/sdDPT4BD4T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DrewSav: So what does this mean for Jared Golden? Well it means Trump's margin in ME-2 could go from 7.5% down to 5%. That may not seem… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like the very blue 1st district in Maine grew by around 6% while the Trump-leaning red district shrunk by around 1%. So about 25,000 1st district voters will need to move to the 2nd district, which Trump won by 28,000 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Redistricting implications here, Democrats maybe not as doomed as the conventional wisdom (which tbh has been a little underbaked and oversold) may have held. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC growing almost 8% over the decade to 8.8m is a surprise. 2019 estimate was just 8.4m. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not necessarily vouching for the specific prediction here but it's better than most people's COVID forecasting heuristic which is to take whatever was happening 2 weeks ago and extrapolate it out into the indefinite future. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah. Politically I don't know that it's going to be tenable for the US or other rich countries to argue against boosters for their own countries, even if there's a trade-off with doses for the developing world. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah, and think the revealed preference of vaccinated people under Delta is that i) they'd really prefer to live with VERY low risk instead of PRETTY low risk and/or ii) they don't necessarily have that much patience for non-vaccine NPIs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred I think one can be not as pessimistic as Topol but still favor boosters from a risk-management point of view. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about boosters is the smartest people I was reading from always seemed to regard something like the current scenario as the base case. Things improve over time, but the virus evolves, it's a bumpy road to endemicity, with boosters along the way. https://t.co/KMKWhOdfXM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not sure people realize that the White House already purchased Pfizer & Moderna booster doses for everyone. https://t.co/N8gDUqhn6i https://t.co/rRBdsaAG5h https://t.co/PPpCrWVqwa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They might have been easily preventable if you'd waived away political constraints, if human nature wasn't what it was, if social trust were higher, and if we'd known everything about the virus in Jan. 2020 that we know right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A very popular but possibly dubious genre of COVID take is the one that asserts (or assumes implicitly) that the problems we've suffered from COVID were easily preventable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also: 11. Some studies have small samples. 12. If you're interested in Delta, make sure you're not using pre-Delta data. 13. There may be complicated statistical effects if people vary in the extent to which they're protected by the vaccines, see e.g.: https://t.co/6bX66iUn7d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol @ashishkjha But REACT isn't (at least I'm pretty sure) controlling for the seropositivity of the unvaccinated group, which is likely pretty high in the UK and plausibly makes a big difference. It's also not distinguishing Pfizer vs AZ. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just off the cuff, here are 10 things to think about when you read competing claims about vaccine effectiveness. Several of these can plausibly change the numbers quite a lot, which is why it's not surprising that there's disagreement from study to study. https://t.co/Y5ceLEq0Ti — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol But your original tweet categorically said it *isn't* 80. That's a very strong assertion, especially when there are plenty of studies, including some of the more rigorous ones, that do that level of protection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @notdred: @NateSilver538 @EricTopol Yeah it seems pretty premature to call this truth-telling at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol I think there's a lot of uncertainty. A lot of these studies don't have rigorous controls in place as compared to e.g. clinical trials. Relatedly it's an issue that a decent chuck of the unvaccinated population in some countries likely have some immunity from natural infection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Congratulations to Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A final variation: maybe the CDC thought it needed to get a message out about Delta and but it assumed it would be tempered by the time the public heard it, when instead e.g. the New York Times amplified all the scariest parts and played down conflicting evidence and caveats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Were they trying to make it seem like they had very robust evidence for their reversal on masks? Were they trying to get people's attention? Or, say, did the slides represent a minority/heterodox view within the CDC, some individual who disagreed with the agency's take on Delta? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I want to know more about the provenance of the leaked CDC document that *emphasized* the comparison to chickenpox and made a lot of other claims (e.g. about vaccinated transmission) that spun uncertain evidence about Delta in a very scary light. https://t.co/ohLXsxc7Ni — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Parents are also less likely to be vaccinated themselves (~60% vs ~70% in the overall adult population) which probably reflects the fact that they're younger than the overall adult population and conservative states have more children per household. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Gallup found similar numbers. Parents are mostly in favor of mask requirements in schools but moderately opposed to vaccine requirements. https://t.co/f8O2XXmQks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, and when in doubt (if public opinion is on the fence in our state) say you'll empower local communities/businesses/schools to make a choice. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Gesturing to the idea that we can't go back to lockdowns is probably a decent message (though the White House is saying the same thing). But on *specifics* the GOP often gets things very wrong. Tying the hands of local school boards is likely to be VERY unpopular for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Enthusiasm counts in midterms and maybe the minority is more vocal on some of these issues, especially masks. But GOP messaging—in addition to often being somewhat incoherent from a public health standpoint—is also often out of line with public opinion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about this is that vaccine mandates for adults are fairly popular (though not for children). Mask mandates are somewhat popular (and very popular in schools). The CDC is still decently popular. https://t.co/DCeJdh1xnc https://t.co/V883SISnPA — PolitiTweet.org