Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jodyavirgan Boston, Las Vegas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about this case is it's glaringly obvious that the data was fake, so even if the authors didn't create the fake data they shouldn't have put their name on a paper without having spent even 30 minutes running some basic descriptive statistics. https://t.co/0xK0oL3Thf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. My critique is not so much that people are making bad choices given that the information they have. It's that they're getting bad information because of anecdotal evidence in the media or otherwise innumerate media framing. See here for more: https://t.co/2XIvqBuiNj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner "As much as possible" certainly allows for a fudge factor, although it's a reasonably strong statement. Hard to know. What's also weird is that few people I know IRL are "avoiding people as much as possible" even though they're mostly vaxxed, college-educated liberal-ish types. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The fact that vaccines **greatly** reduce severe outcomes from COVID is often treated as a footnote or afterthought, when it has profound implications both for society's response to COVID and for your personal risk calculus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm a little skeptical of this result, since it doesn't match all sorts of observational data (e.g. restaurant reservations or air traffic numbers) showing people's social activities back to maybe 80-90% of pre-pandemic levels. So maybe some social desirability bias. But still. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If nearly half of *vaccinated* people are "avoiding other people as much as possible" then public health and media messaging about the risks COVID poses to vaccinated people has been badly miscalibrated. https://t.co/oJh1xzbxgj https://t.co/U24wJ5f5hq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Move the capital back to Philadelphia. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People in Melbourne have been in lockdown for 200 days and public health experts are "shocked" that they want to meet their friends in the park? https://t.co/ql5TmP3OVf https://t.co/rRY8ImsALv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kareem_carr And I've been following the various COVID experts/pundits for many months. I think this person has consistently failed to recognize how harmful most people find it to avoid in-person social contact. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kareem_carr Nobody is "diverting" vaccines. I do not buy that there is necessarily a trade-off between boosters and first doses elsewhere, or at the very least I think that point needs to be proven. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kareem_carr I don't think that's what she's saying and I also don't think that's true for a virus that is very very likely to become endemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @Yadav_supplychn I have tons of respect for you (and University of Michigan!) and deeply appreciate your civility too... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren I guess I'd just say the answers to these questions *certainly aren't obvious*. And they require input from people with expertise in economics, politics and supply chains, etc. in addition to public health experts per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren The US *has* bought a lot of doses for the rest of the world while *also* buying boosters for ourselves. And another reason why there might *not* be a trade-off is because "and/both" is a much easier sell to the US taxpayer than "we must sacrifice". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: A special edition of Model Talk... How climate models work and what they're telling us, with @FrediOtto, @baylorfk & @Nate… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @Craig_A_Spencer But it's not clear that the queue is the right concept if first-world demand for boosters leads to doses being manufactured that would not be manufactured otherwise. Moreover, increasing manufacturing capacity because of greater demand may have long-run benefits to supply. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Craig_A_Spencer I don't think it's very clear that there's a trade-off internationally in that greater demand for vaccines very plausibly leads to greater supply. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's still remarkable how many anti-booster arguments posit some sort of trade-off between giving booster doses and giving 1st doses—including a trade-off of vague quantities such as "focus"—without really making any effort to prove such a trade-off exists. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @NateSilver538 @ClaraJeffery @jdesmondharris Here's my roundup of what we know about Abbott rapid tests. https://t.co/1gNZ6… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery @jdesmondharris So they're a good tool when your probability is pretty low but not *super* low (if your probability is 0 then all positives will be false positives) which is in line IMO with "I'm vaccinated but feeling a little off". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery @jdesmondharris I don't know that's quite right. The one I took (Abbott BinaxNow) has about 98.5% specifity and 85% sensitivity. The specific chance you get a false negative or false positive depends on what your prior probability is about how likely you are to have COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery @jdesmondharris The at-home test kits are pretty good for the "probably fine but just want to be careful" circumstance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The better argument (I don't know that I agree, but it at least recognizes people's strong desire for normalcy) is the opposite one. That people *can* get back to ~normal because vaccines << hospitalizations/deaths so we can take our time figuring out how to boost the right way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can't think of a better example of elites being in a bubble detached from the rest of society than the attitude that people are just so *silly* and *naive* for wanting to get back to normal and/or will happily abide another year of sharply limiting in-person socialization. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, empirically, most people *have* resumed their social lives. Even with Delta concerns, restaurant reservations are ~90-95% of what they were pre-pandemic, for instance. Air travel is back to ~80% of pre-pandemic norms. https://t.co/KWA3ItuZTh https://t.co/aU7tjKF8MA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of all the critiques of boosters, this seems like the worst/weirdest one. Boosters would help us get back to normal—see family and friends more, pursue a wider range of social activities—but for some reason we don't want that? https://t.co/CvKjKckczj https://t.co/8mTT6SdN0n — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Furthermore, nearly all criticism in hindsight (I can think of one or two exceptions but not many) is that they moved too slowly. So that should probably figure into how you calibrate your assessments in real-time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My criticism is that they're generally too slow and too unwilling to make reasonable inferences based on incomplete information. So I will *not* be criticizing them for the booster shot decision, although I'm glad there are still further steps in the process (i.e. FDA review). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Public health officials have made their share of mistakes, but they're really sort of damned if they do and damned if they don't in that they'll get criticized if they make decisions "too quickly" or "too slowly". So at least try to be consistent. — PolitiTweet.org