Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There HAVE been *lots* of people saying there's "no evidence" that they work though (see below). There are other arguments against them, like the ones that you're making... but it's time to retire the "no evidence" claim is all I'm saying. https://t.co/LNcBu9YIOZ https://t.co/kcQASqioAU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DougPolkVids: The podcast will be joined tomorrow by @NateSilver538 at noon pacific time. Looking forward to talking about his recent f… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general I'm suspicious of the term "no evidence", which is rarely literally true. When people say that it often means they're setting the bar extremely high because they're clinging to arbitrarily-chosen null hypotheses, sometimes for political reasons. https://t.co/Cjam8kMXIA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sure there are a lot of potentially unaccounted-for confounders here, but at the same time, people need to stop saying there's "no evidence" that boosters work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Israel, somewhat controversially, is putting a heavy emphasis on booster shots as part of their Delta/post-Delta strategy but they're *also* strongly emphasizing testing and doing somewhere around 5x as many tests per capita as in the US. https://t.co/sFWZf7CJis https://t.co/CR2OiSo5ra — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner It's not, particularly. Its case and hospitalization rate is about at the US average. High vaccination rate but, since it did very well in curbing previous waves, low levels of disease-induced immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pregnancy isn't contagious. COVID-19 is. Thanks for coming to my MasterClass. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren There are exceptions for sure but in those cases I'd want to see both some replications and a pretty good causal hypothesis. I just think the bar is high for this sort of result to be "true" especially when replication rates are quite low overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting thread here. Whenever there's no difference (in this case, between the rate of Delta vs Alpha hospital admissions) before you introduce statistical controls, but a large difference once you introduce those controls, there's a good chance you screwed up the controls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie @JamesSurowiecki I think it's technically like 102 or 103% of age 65+ in Miami-Dade County based on the latest Census data (although obviously a lot of ambiguity since a lot of people there live in multiple locations). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @felixsalmon Yeah. The lack of federalized vaccine records is yet another fairly annoying issue with our COVID response. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah, that's my hunch. That it's data anomalies + travelers/part-time residents more than actual behavioral differences. Although, also possible that some states are better about following up to encourage people completing their sequence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon Oh gosh that's a pain. It's nice to have Excelsior and not have to carry your vaccine card around, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some hypothesis: —If people get 1st and 2nd doses at different locations, states may mistakenly count them as 2 first doses. —Authorized or unauthorized booster doses may be incorrectly counted as 1st doses. —Some states allow or even encourage travelers to get vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm curious about the data on people who have reportedly received one vaccine dose but have not completed their sequence. In some states, very few people fall into this category (4% of adults in Indiana) but it's quite a lot in others (21% in Hawaii). Why? https://t.co/KzISbdaYKE https://t.co/ljLNqvf1uk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Choose your fighter https://t.co/fuRB25P23y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZingherPolisci @Nate_Birkhead @germanrlopez I think a lot of news coverage has scared the eff out of parents in pretty irresponsible ways rather than providing them with the information they need to responsibly assess risks—and harms from e.g. social isolation and learning loss—among children. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@germanrlopez It's hard to figure out if people are being risk-avrerse or if they misunderstand the risks. If you read e.g. the NYT you might vastly overestimate how often severe outcomes occur in certain groups or how often vaccinated people transmit (can happen but much less than unvaxxed). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK good. Didn't think they were going to do this but it's the right move. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliexdean No prob, always appreciate hearing from you on this stuff! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliexdean I think my tweet was confusingly worded! The study cited in Science seems good on that point. More worried about when people make claims about vaccine efficacy based on e.g. case rates in the vaccinated vs. unvaccinated population in [insert state/country here]. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More specifically, they'll tend to understate vaccine effectiveness since at this point lots of the unvaccinated population will have had COVID. (Though it's not quite that simple: some of the vaccinated population will have had COVID too and they seem to have extra protection.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As more data comes out showing natural immunity provides fairly durable protection, studies of vaccine efficacy are going to be hopelessly confounded unless they account for previous infection status of both the vaccinated and unvaccinated population. https://t.co/tQZvhhQhZB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Update to this data: * COVID growth nationwide still positive but decelerating * Delta surge in the relatively well-vaccinated West and Northeast has been tame as compared to the South outside of certain pockets (Southern Oregon) and is also decelerating * Midwest worth watching https://t.co/CuTKYjoB6h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The phrase "with the coronavirus" is kind of superfluous in this headline. https://t.co/xamfzf30Hb https://t.co/e3RkfjwaFq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If this disobedience persists then you'll have no more exercise hour, Josh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Candidates still have until Aug. 31 to file as write-ins in the California gubernatorial recall. For better or worse, decent chance to become the next governor if you're some highly recognizable gal/dude who can blanket the state with ads. https://t.co/I2vcrV37O8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Yeah having been there a couple of times this spring I think there's a lot of YOLO self-selection among both tourists and locals in Florida. And also there's an in-between category of new perhaps temporary arrivals that may be especially YOLO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp In some ways the weather and culture theories feed off of one another. If parts of the country where it's pleasant to be outdoors in the winter do "surprisingly" well in winter relative to the cold Northeast where the media is based, it may acquire a false sense of invincibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp It's not fashionable to blame weather conditions but IDK this looks like a pretty strong relationship. https://t.co/dZuJo0TQ0m — PolitiTweet.org