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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, as with a lot of other COVID policies, the lack of an off-ramp was much of the problem. That it came to be tolerated as a default. I have less of an issue with e.g. schools closing for a week now b/c of staff shortages if there's reason to expect the situation will improve. — PolitiTweet.org
Kostya Medvedovsky @kmedved
@NateSilver538 To some degree, it wasn't a single policy choice. Rather, it was a rolling series of "keep schools… https://t.co/3klPGGWdtj
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yep. I'm usually sympathetic to policy failures because, hey, life's complicated, and we don't get all the evidence in advance. But on **closing public schools for a year or more**, the harms were pretty obvious all along. — PolitiTweet.org
Mary Katharine Ham @mkhammer
Two things that will probably always shock me about all this. 1) That people were surprised a year of missed in-pe… https://t.co/2WcKJFm0Ag
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@emilyakopp @zeynep I think our coverage was pretty good? The idea that vaccinated people could spread COVID wasn't news, but the implication that they spread it "just as easily" was hugely misleading, and the Provincetown study had lots of limitations and shouldn't have changed our priors much. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The thing I'll remember is people yelling at folks (me but also others who made the point more often) for merely suggesting we needed to consider the costs to closing schools as well as the benefits. If someone won't engage in cost-benefit analysis they're usually full of shit. — PolitiTweet.org
David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt
3. Suicide attempts have risen, slightly among adolescent boys and sharply among adolescent girls. The number of E.… https://t.co/jze2FJgDcL
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbarro I'm afraid that he's highlighted a phrase and there's not really any way to recover your dignity after that. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@julia_azari The other day my partner and I randomly happened upon a CVS in NYC that had dozens of COVID tests of every possible variety (this has very much not been the norm recently) and it felt like a Trolley Problem come to life. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@peterdaou I'm bullish on him in part because I think he understands how to appeal to normie Democrats and not people on Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AstorAaron We also have lots of people with hybrid immunity and/or boosters. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AstorAaron It's hard to know. Our positivity rate actually been pretty similar than the US as a whole! Wild guess is that we're ascertaining 2x better than the rest of the US, so catching about 1 in 5 cases. So maybe ~50% attack rate by the time the wave is over but probably not yet. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AstorAaron We do way more testing than the rest of the US though, so even with testing shortages here, I'd guess we're picking up on a considerably higher share of cases. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@smotus If we're talking about anybody who had presidential aspirations, the denominator is bigger than 4, but then there are also way more than 8 candidates per cycle. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The "former mayors of NYC have a bad track record" talking point is also really underpowered. If something like 10-15% of presidential primary campaigns are successful (assuming ~8 candidates per cycle) and NYC mayors are 0-for-4, that tells you basically nothing statistically. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@sewellchan Still a really small sample size. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People aren't thinking about this quite right. Other than Kamala Harris, nobody is more than ~10% to be the right answer to this question. They're all inherently long shots. So you'd rather have someone with obvious strengths and obvious liabilities rather than a "generic" D. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
He's going to be good at getting media attention and he has a chance of carving out a niche that's different from what other Democrats are offering. That's a potentially powerful combination given how primaries are conducted nowadays. Also, the competition isn't great. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ChrisConnelly: @NateSilver538 FWIW: I think this year is the 50th anniversary of Breslin writing something quite similar about John Lin… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's probably foolish to think a NYC mayor will successfully translate into being a national political figure, but I still think Eric Adams would be in my top 5 for "who will be the next Democratic presidential nominee after Joe Biden?". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Wertwhile @conorsen When I looked at this a few days ago, about 15% and rising of NYC's COVID hospital population was being discharged each day, as compared to 9-10% during last winter's wave. So I do think that speaks to shorter stays, though the numbers bounce around a lot. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen @Wertwhile Yeah, I was confused why the number of *new* hospitalizations seems to be leveling off, but the total # in hospital isn't. But it looks not many patients are discharged from NYC hospitals on weekends, so hospital counts tend to rise in Sun/Mon reports then fall during the week. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Yeah, I'm sure there'll be some panicky NYT alert about whatever tomorrow's # is (probably a big one assuming a big surge in tests processed after the long weekend). But pretty sure when the data is reanalyzed later, we'll see a late Dec. peak in Manhattan, maybe other boros too. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The number of tests and cases fluctuates from day to day, but test positivity rates have really flattened out in NYC too. Jan. 2: 23% Jan. 1: 23% Dec. 31: 23% Dec. 30: 23% Dec. 29: 23% Dec. 28: 22% https://t.co/NhlUAF6xeY https://t.co/7pr1rxeHm2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Noahpinion: Guys, if Republicans offer to change the ECA, you TAKE THAT DEAL. You do not hold out for a bunch of other stuff that proba… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kmedved Yeah, I'm still curious why there doesn't seem to be that much effort into developing better models. (I know there's been *some*.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm @TimFullerton Yeah, and London seems like a particularly apt comparison for NYC. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Decline in Google searches for COVID symptoms in NYC metro over the past week. Makes me wonder if the peak of *infections* in the city has already passed or is happening ~now, though *reported cases* will probably take longer to peak because of testing backlog and reporting lags. https://t.co/YptmdZG8kc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DKThomp: You don’t have to be a Let-Er-Ripper to see that omicron’s effect is milder than previous strains, and yet we still have peopl… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Only in the 13th paragraph do you learn that only about 300 people are hospitalized with COVID on an island of 3 million, which is exceptionally good news and testament to the power of the vaccines (PR has a very high vax rate). https://t.co/jdjA7TS6QN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We can control COVID so long as we take ambiguous steps that we didn't take before and that nobody could ever really agree upon. — PolitiTweet.org
Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden
We have the power to control Covid, but it means doing more than we’re doing now to vaccinate, mask up, ventilate, and test.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Timodc @Noahpinion Have narrowly avoided some Curb Your Enthusiasm moments over the years when a (presumed?) straight friend referred to his/her (romantic) partner or a lawyer friend referred to his/her (business) partner. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 There are fewer people (33, to be exact) in ICU in NYC from covid today than last year, same date. This is not… — PolitiTweet.org
