Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 24, 2022

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Tue Jan 04 00:19:37 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus If we're talking about anybody who had presidential aspirations, the denominator is bigger than 4, but then there are also way more than 8 candidates per cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "former mayors of NYC have a bad track record" talking point is also really underpowered. If something like 10-15% of presidential primary campaigns are successful (assuming ~8 candidates per cycle) and NYC mayors are 0-for-4, that tells you basically nothing statistically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron We do way more testing than the rest of the US though, so even with testing shortages here, I'd guess we're picking up on a considerably higher share of cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2022