Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not quite sure what we're doing when on the one hand, we're retweeting a tweet that calls for "bipartisan action" and on the other hand, we're being intrinsically suspicious of any policy that has Republican support. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general in political situations where there's either a shortsighted and trivial reason for a particular tactic or a "hidden" smart reason, it's almost always in fact because of some shortsighted and trivial reason and not because of any proprietary knowledge or ideas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @marcatracy: A friend who is smart and plugged-in said he assumes there is something the public doesn't know that helps explain the Demo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@antoniogm In my experience the number of Thomas Friedman Cab/Uber Experiences is way higher in South Florida than anywhere else. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wordle 205 14/6 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛ ⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛ 🟨🟨⬛⬛⬛ ⬛⬛🟩⬛🟨 ⬛⬛🟩🟨⬛ ⬛🟨🟩⬛⬛ ⬛⬛🟩⬛🟨 🟩⬛🟩🟨⬛ 🟩🟨🟩🟨⬛ 🟩🟨🟩⬛🟩 🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩 🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi For sure. My working assumption is that things will get pretty bad at least for parts of the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi It potentially has implications for how long the wave lasts, though. If we're showing 700k confirmed cases a day and that's only like 10% of the total, that means 7m *infections* daily and you burn through the population pretty fast at that rate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Yeah. I also think things like the *extremely* high rate of cases among NBA or NHL players tells us something. Yes, it's an unusual group of people in important ways (with high COVID exposure) but it is a controlled sample of people who are constantly tested. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A problem with analysis like this: It's likely there's FAR more underreporting of cases than last winter. Why? * At home tests now likely >=50% of overall volume * Huge demand overwhelming in-person test facilities * Omicron milder = cases easier to miss https://t.co/a2M6ldWY6A https://t.co/bIxOSSXIF7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Usually when presidential candidates lose elections, their parties look for a fresh face in the new cycle. But the eviden… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Currently, about 20% of ICU beds are available, which is similar to during the worst of last winter's surge. However, there are fewer total patients in the ICU than last winter. And that may be the better indictor, since capacity can scale up to meet demand to some extent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's an interesting chart: the number of ICU beds available and occupied in NYC (for all reasons, not just COVID) from April 2020 onward. Data extracted from here for those interested: https://t.co/XqEqI93ZCQ https://t.co/9QQIAuhnIS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: “Usually when presidential candidates lose elections, their parties look for a fresh face in the new cycle. But the eviden… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@umichvoter Coming around to the view that however many major regions you choose to divide the US into, we also need some notion of "microregions" like South Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, and maybe New England if you don't consider it a major region on its own. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson @mattyglesias @baseballcrank It didn't really, though. Protection still remained extremely strong against severe outcomes, is also true under Omicron. The post-Delta freakout by people who harbored unrealistic ideas about zero COVID was how you got the squandered opportunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Are you really challenging a guy with an h-index of 49?!? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NAChristakis @ScottGottliebMD The 10% currently PCR+ might sound crazy but that's apparently the number they hit in London. https://t.co/tlz9OGKGqf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NAChristakis @ScottGottliebMD The math doesn't seem too crazy. For instance, if 0.1% of the population is in the hospital for reasons other than COVID, 10% of people in a city like NYC are COVID PCR+, and 1% of Omicron cases require "for COVID" hospitalization, you wind up with ~50% incidental positives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maya_sen: Historians of the future: “surprisingly, people at the time did little to stem the slow creep of authoritarianism across the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@K_G_Andersen Sure, but pressure ranges from "longer waits & other mild annoyances" at one end to "triaging patients who will die as a result" on the other. So far NYC (and maybe other blue metros?) look more like the former. Could certainly be problems elsewhere with lower vax rates, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@K_G_Andersen NYC came out with data today showing roughly 1/2 of its COVID hospitalizations are "with COVID". That's part of why, as you can see in the chart, its ICU admissions aren't rising nearly as rapidly as cases. And why NYC hospitals aren't under as much pressure as you might think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's part of why you're seeing, in London for example, a nearly complete decoupling of the number of people in the hospital from the number of people on ventilation. https://t.co/sh8WRFLlKt https://t.co/02NNNl9R61 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a poor analogy. A broken leg is inherently serious. COVID sometimes isn't. People who are *incidentally* diagnosed *with* COVID while at the hospital are less likely to have serious cases than people who's cases were serious enough to require hospitalization *for* COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mckaycoppins For me: no side effects after first dose, fairly bad after second dose, fairly mild after booster. But I took away after the second dose that I needed to take it easy for a day or so and not try to go at full speed... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky Even the papers they are skeptical about long COVID seem convinced that lingering problems with taste and smell are common... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Yeah, the people who claim Omicron has an intrinsic R0 of 16 (!) or something (even if Rt < R0) are showing they have rather poor intuition for how exponentials work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi @PropterMalone @RiverTamYDN It looks like it's from a curated list of 2500 words. But I'm not clear on whether the words are randomly chosen from within the list each day and whether words can be repeated.... https://t.co/EnOWV27b8A https://t.co/kmjAv1i1hp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi It's only a matter of time before someone builds a good Wordle algorithm. The goal is definitely to minimize the average number of guesses, though, not just get it within 6! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias IDK, I think "highly-educated liberals are more conformist than I thought*" has been one of my bigger revisions over the past few years. * Though less than you'd gather from social media. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro IMO: 4 clues = par, 3 clues = birdie, 5 clues = bogey — PolitiTweet.org