Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @allahpundit I don't know but some data suggests younger people are actually *more* COVID-cautious because they're more likely to be liberal Democrats. *Overwhelmingly* the best predictor of COVID caution is political partisanship and everything else is probably mostly noise. https://t.co/Ofx7qeh7v7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Yeah, most of the the data I've seen suggests parents are *less* COVID-cautious, on average (despite what certain college-educated liberal parents on this site will tell you). https://t.co/W83tBV7A2F https://t.co/7eA7imYhPL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mirtle Yeah and this was also three straight Olympics where the time zone was terrible for people in the Americas. So even people willing to make some one-off exceptions (getting up early/staying up late) may have gotten out of the habit of treating the Olympics as "must-see" TV. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This year's Olympics had a *lot* of problems but I think people underrate how dissatisfying it is to watch things on tape delay in a world where the expectation (even relative to a few years ago) is instantaneous access to information. https://t.co/wV9JIbF94u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Matt the guy is a *professor* at *Columbia* not sure why you consistently have so much of a problem with trusting the science. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn Sometimes I'll overhear someone say like "Well, I had ace-nine suited on the button..." and will react to myself "Whoa, they're talking about *poker*, that's cool!" then I'll remember I'm at a poker tournament. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Vibes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing about the New York Times is that, while they're actually quite responsive to criticism, they never want give their critics credit. Baquet will never admit they overplayed the Clinton email story but I'd bet the NYT would handle it differently and better today. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryangrim I guess "anti-woke" is a relatively specific faction, but I'd think a large portion (maybe even a majority?) of Biden voters are woke-indifferent and not particularly interested in the things people debate on Twitter all the time, until maybe it affects their kids. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryangrim I'm skeptical that it has its origins in the Bernie-Hillary wars as opposed to polarization along educational lines that accelerated under Trump. I don't even think there's much correlation between who was on Team Bernie or Team HRC in 2016 and who is "woke" or "anti-woke" now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I sometimes feel like people ought to pre-register their takes conditional upon electoral outcomes, e.g. "I agree not publish any 'actually, this wasn't *so* bad for liberals and was just a zany coincidence of local factors!!!' takes if the recalls prevail by 20 or more points." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are some disputes in the comments about precisely *which* unpopular liberal positions were most important in the recall, which don't really serve to rebut the thesis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's sometimes underappreciated how unpopular certain liberal positions are *even among liberals*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, being an survey interviewer is already a hard (and often not very well-paying) job. Can you imagine if the job also involved fact-checking random strangers who gave the "wrong" answers? That would produce a huge amount of hostility toward interviewers, and polls in general. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The purpose of polling is to understand public opinion, even when it's wrong*, and not to re-educate the respondents. * Arguably in this case, since it depends on what type of crime, what time frame and what location we're talking about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang People aren't reacting to the technology, they're reacting to the people they associate with the technology since everyone has to get divided into teams, and left-of-center political/social commentators have mostly decided that people into crypto are the Wrong Kinds of People. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang @MattZeitlin Having randomly done a little reporting on this topic, while the crypto world had embraced digital art, the extent to which the traditional art world has embraced crypto is a lot more debatable and varied. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @chrislhayes The challenge as I see it is that, while a customer might have a high lifetime expected spend, loyalty is a challenge. The sites are all offering the same service and people have incentives to deposit on multiple sites so they can get more bonuses and shop for better lines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @chrislhayes Some of their stock prices took a hit at about the time NY sportsbetting debuted and it's plausible that investors were reacting to the very generous bonuses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @PeterHamby I'm in LA by coincidence and one guy tried to skywrite R-A-M-S. Though I've seen more effective attempts at skywriting tbh. https://t.co/Q9qOwHbN8B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk Yeah it's a pretty weird time for him to bust out that particular critique when the whole point is that in-person socializing is important and that the sort of constraints that the Atlantic article is advocating for aren't going to be sustainable for most people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois Yeah, the public may well be bad at probabilistic risk assessment, as she claims, but there's also a robust body of literature that experts are *also* *really* bad at it unless they have specific training. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC Well, the Atlantic article was trying to persuade people to be more cautious. And I think it failed at that precisely because it wasn't meeting people in the middle and the precautions it was describing would seem unreasonable to most people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC As I said in a different thread, I also just find it sort of uncanny and disconcerting. We're both gay white male writers in NYC and we probably agree on a lot. But COVID-related behaviors in your peer group seem very different from mine. It's weird! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC OK but more objective measures like restaurant bookings and sports game attendance and air travel, all somewhat high-risk activities, are at something like 85-90% of their pre-COVID levels. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC That's great if it works for you. But I'd suggest it puts you in a rather small minority. More importantly, I think a lot of public health professionals are out of touch with how the average person is living because they extrapolate too much from their own circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 There's something disconcerting about it. I can imagine being more cautious (or less cautious: I was pretty cautious pre-vax) within "reasonable" bounds. But the behavior described in the Atlantic article seems almost unrecognizable to me IRL & yet the author assumes it's normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 What's weird is I know hardly anybody who lives like this. Maybe a couple of family members who get some of the way there. And maybe some friends-of-friends or acquaintances if I stretch. But it's a very small minority even though most of my friends are well-educated liberals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I'd also like to know what the base rates are. Lots of people in normal times don't go out much or only go out with their spouses/families. I tend to think there aren't many who went from being social butterflies to rarely seeing anyone outside their household, but I don't know. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ReubenR80027912 Can't speak for DC or Boston but way less than 50% in NYC. One thing I've always found strange about this genre of articles, in fact, is that they treat this sort of behavior as widespread when it's pretty unusual. — PolitiTweet.org