Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean... people should be more precise. Did Russian shitposts on Facebook matter enough to swing the results? Almost certainly not. Always a dumb theory. The DNC hacks? I lean no here but far more plausible especially given the media's obsession with all things email-related. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi @ReubenR80027912 To be clear that part's just speculation. Survey data shows that parents aren't more cautious on average. But I haven't seen crosstabs based on political orientation X parental status. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @BenjySarlin @ReubenR80027912 I can imagine there are interaction effects where liberals with kids are more cautious than liberals without kids, but conservatives with kids are *less* cautious than conservatives without kids. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @ReubenR80027912 @NickRiccardi I don't notice any difference between friends w/kids and those without, though interactions with friends-with-kids may differ based on whether you have kids yourself. But also, polling data pretty convincingly establishes that having kids doesn't produce more COVID caution. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PeterHamby Replace Colorado with New Jersey. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan @QU_MBB @QUAthletics @RiderMBB @MAACSports Is this a conference of basketball teams or of pollsters? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke They kind of do? The pandemic reached crisis levels right as the D primaries were wrapping up, which meant there was less time than usual for reflections and recriminations. And Ds ultimately won the general election. If Pete or Bernie lose to Trump, IA/NH get more scrutiny. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ReubenR80027912 @BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi Yeah it's all super weird. I had a little bit of that happening in my network around the Omicron peak (and a lot pre-vaccines) but not much otherwise. It's almost like I pre-selected friends who would fall into the "vaxxed and relaxed" crowd. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This contrast is interesting: although there's a gap in COVID vaccination rates based on what networks people watch, there's a much *bigger* gap in the perceived risk of COVID. https://t.co/7sqUqnwo4X https://t.co/QQKpcRFlml — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi @ReubenR80027912 Yeah, Google searches for COVID (a good generalized measure of anxiety IMO) are at their lowest point of the pandemic, lower even than during the pre-Delta summer in June. https://t.co/Mla3dbMGS2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, good. People forget what a complete and total shitshow the Iowa caucuses were in 2020, and also how weird it is to have two states as white as Iowa and New Hampshire lead off the nomination process for a party built around a racially-diverse coalition. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JSEllenberg There's a growing consensus that searching Twitter for "growing consensus" is an extremely efficient way to detect bullshit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I was like "oh cool, someone did polling on the defensive shift!" but it turns out that this entire article is just 3 random people complaining on Twitter. https://t.co/Jyzkx3vm8M https://t.co/oRoOO3eZ5g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JPosnanski The internal politics of it seem strange. Even if the subcommittee didn't like the deal and the rank-and-file did, you'd expect at least some to switch their votes to avoid appearing out of touch. Or at least that's what you'd expect if an analogous case came up in e.g. Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As someone who's frozen my ass off at a lot of Opening Day games, starting the season on April 7 and having more doubleheaders/fewer off days is better than trying to play baseball in late March. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sometimes you'll read a headline and say "people can't be that dumb, there must be some nuance I'm missing" but the people working for the Montreal Symphony Orchestra are in fact complete and total morons. (The guy they cancelled is pro-Ukraine FWIW). https://t.co/f2Gd7NIbUu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@karlbykarlsmith Understood but the guy I'm critiquing (Wolfers) isn't writing for traders but instead to a general interest audience. And to that audience, the fact that today's print didn't move markets is largely beside the point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. if the LA Lakers miss the playoffs, that would be in line with *current expectations*. The market now realizes they're pretty bad. But it would be disingenuous to say such an outcome was just as expected. They were the Western Conference favorites at the start of the year! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, when bad outcomes occur, be wary of people writing them off because they were "in line with expectations". Sometimes expectations correctly adjust in real time, but it doesn't mean the outcome was in line with *original* expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lizzywol I mean, it's probably time to update all of these labels. If both the left wing and the right wing in the US are abandoning liberalism, then there's some sense in which the liberals are also the conservatives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jessesingal Noted Putin sympathizer Pyotr Tchaikovsky (7 May 1840 – 6 November 1893) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID-related hospitalizations in New York City are as low as they've been at any point since the pandemic began. If you're arguing that NPIs should still in place, that's fine, but at this point you're really arguing for making them permanent. https://t.co/2zbEjfMbMq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias The entire discourse has become illegible. Leonhardt et. al. argue that NPIs fail a cost-benefit test at this point in the pandemic and the pro-NPI folks *almost never even attempt to refute that* and just talk about how he gives them bad feels. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, I think I buy that "things are going at least somewhat worse than Russia was hoping" but beyond that I can't think of a major news story where it was harder to get a sense of what was really happening on the ground. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York is obviously not very affordable, but you probably wouldn't gather from this article that NYC rents are essentially the same now as before the pandemic. Per https://t.co/1VqomWo0it, the average 2-bedroom is $3,300 now vs. $3,320 two years ago. https://t.co/VYTD6Hfca8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This critique isn't wrong (it would be better if CNN highlighted national average gas prices) but the very very large majority of news stories work this way, where the deck is stacked in favor of a preferred narrative. This just happens to be a particularly unsubtle example. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@adamdavidson @UChicago I went to U of C and I refer to it as U of C! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel Yeah I think there needs to be a name for this phenomenon where far more people are denouncing a position than espousing it, but the denouncers imply that the view they're denouncing is "the conventional wisdom" etc. It happens a lot on this platform. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I keep seeing this tweet shared... and it doesn't testify to Russian influence over social media. Rather, it testifies to the importance of having a sample size of more than 1 day. More recent days on Facebook look just like pre-Ukraine ones. https://t.co/kHfemb2Stp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah, if this guy just wanted to disagree I guess that's fine (I suppose I more or less agree that journalists "have a brand"). But the fact that he first cites his academic credentials to suggest he has *superior expertise about journalism* to *Maggie Haberman* is beyond parody. — PolitiTweet.org