Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2022

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Thu Mar 10 15:59:23 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. if the LA Lakers miss the playoffs, that would be in line with *current expectations*. The market now realizes they're pretty bad. But it would be disingenuous to say such an outcome was just as expected. They were the Western Conference favorites at the start of the year! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, when bad outcomes occur, be wary of people writing them off because they were "in line with expectations". Sometimes expectations correctly adjust in real time, but it doesn't mean the outcome was in line with *original* expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

It depends on when expectations are set. This is *much* higher than economists expected two months ago. To hit th… https://t.co/ZJat5RexP0

Posted March 10, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@karlbykarlsmith Understood but the guy I'm critiquing (Wolfers) isn't writing for traders but instead to a general interest audience. And to that audience, the fact that today's print didn't move markets is largely beside the point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2022