Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think most of the more prominent GOP pols, certainly including DeSantis who is presumably running in 2024, are governing for the median GOP voter in their states (not the median *overall* voter). Even among the GOP base there's not that a big market for austerity politics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi I think that's probably right, but there's also some horseshoe theory thing where people who want to maintain NPIs forever* sometimes wind up talking down the vaccines. * I don't know if the reporter is in that camp, but the experts she cites tend to be hawkish. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly kind of baffled by why this study, which seemingly has extremely good news (vaccinations highly effective against critical outcomes in children), is being framed in way. https://t.co/mCPdy9oTlG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Well, and voters bought that to some extent in 2016, but not in 2018/2020 after the GOP tried to revoke Obamacare and enacted a huge corporate tax cut. And the current crop of high-profile GOP politicians aren't really moderating on much at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Such a result, however, would not really be a refutation of "popularism". Neither party is really playing for the center. I do think popularist critiques of the left sometimes neglect that there are two sides of the coin and that the GOP is very right-wing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Both Republicans and Democrats take lots of unpopular positions. And to some extent those balance out so Republicans are probably on track for a merely good rather than superlative midterm—about in line with the average midterm, which is good for the opposition party. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not breaking news here, but people have way too low a threshold for citing academic work that flatters their preconceptions. Doing good research is hard. The median paper is mediocre, leaves out lots of confounders and complications, and shouldn't change your priors much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @MattZeitlin The challenge is that poker rooms and sports books aren't where the big $$$ is made, so you're not going to rake in the same kind of licensing fees. Though it does look like one of the Manhattan proposals would offer only table games (likely including poker) and no slots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the likely applicants specifically mentioned poker in an earlier proposal so that would be cool. https://t.co/PMY21OgQYj https://t.co/UXTNLgOYe4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's bad in some individual European countries such as Germany but overall the BA.2 wave in Europe is leveling off and starting to look more like a ripple. https://t.co/mT4OLpt4j2 https://t.co/mgLfkqQn0J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I've been thinking lately that people mistake being Very Online for having Cable News Brain. A lot of what gets attributed to the former is really the latter. Though some people have both and they are basically the superstrain of Twitter annoyingness. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @allahpundit: Chief Wiggum: You wouldn't happen to know anything about a cigarette truck that was hijacked outside of town, would you?… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I just literally laughed out loud at "approximately 72 other tournaments" and now people are awkwardly staring at me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGrossmann: Yes & negative effects of gas prices on presidential approval are not dependent on high levels of media coverage: https… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sahilkapur: @ForecasterEnten @NateSilver538 also, narratives have more of an impact on public opinion when they’re about distant or int… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah, I suppose you could argue e.g. "given wage growth, the media ought to devote more time to mediasplaining the difference between real and nominal prices". But instead, people are insisting that consumers don't notice nominal price increases! That is a wildly incorrect claim! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They have not devoted an inordinate amount of time to it. They have devoted rather little time, on the contrary. https://t.co/Q08zo5dxhR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If gas costs more or food costs more or rent costs more, ordinary people notice that a lot. It is frankly super elitist to suggest otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, the media vastly underplays inflation relative to how much the public cares about it. And maybe that's OK; there are a lot of other important issues, too. But it's the canonical example of something people care about whether or not the media covers it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People encounter high prices for gas and other items literally every day. There is a long empirical history of inflation affecting presidential approval. And people talk about high prices all the time if you step outside of the liberal bubble. It is not just a media fixation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: Could GOP response to Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination backfire? @NateSilver538 has the analysis: “Reflexive partisan… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ForecasterEnten: The media mentioned "inflation" 1/20th as much as "Ukraine" and 1/6th as often as "Supreme Court" early this week, eve… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say media coverage should be dictated by a popularity contest. The media is right IMO to exercise its judgement on which stories are most important. But the idea that the media is *driving public concern about inflation* has it totally backwards. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's common on this platform to hear critiques such as "the media devotes way too much attention to inflation". But voters care about inflation much *more* than the media does. It outpaces all issues, including Ukraine and (now by a wide margin) COVID. https://t.co/2K4plGPFcW https://t.co/LLofPF4uqX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He was impeached twice, and he was the first incumbent to lose reelection in 28 years. And the idea that Democrats are struggling because they haven't spent enough time litigating Trump (as opposed to inflation, COVID, etc.) isn't grounded in any evidence, to put it politely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonst0kes I guess what I'm not sure about is whether Twitter is creating these new axes or activating those that were latent all along. Like, the 2nd/Nth dimension conflicts usually map pretty well (often better than the 1st dimension!) to which people I tend to get along with IRL. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonst0kes Maybe by revealing what Everyone Thinks About Everything All The Time, Twitter provides more axes for conflict? Often I'll find people who I align with on some 1st dimension (left-right?) axis but who *always* seem *completely* opposite on some hard-to-define 2nd/Nth dimension. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias This is adjacent to my Efficient Take Hypothesis, which is that a take should make you *less* convinced of the taker's position as often as it makes you more convinced; otherwise you're just ping-ponging back and forth based on what you happened to read most recently. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good thread, and it cuts in both directions: people mistake criticism for mean-spiritedness, and they also mistake mean-spiritdness for cogent criticism (especially on Twitter). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@drvolts @jbarro I'm not even sure what this means. You have prominent public health experts acknowledging that their critiques come from a highly ideological (in this case, left-wing/socialist) point of view. That seems interesting as someone interested in American politics and public policy. — PolitiTweet.org