Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LemieuxLGM I don't know if it's a bigger violation of norms so much as that the norms are dumb and it would generally be better if journalists leaked the primary source material they're reporting from (save for cases where say there's a lot of sensitive or private information). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I thought it was something particular to my Twitter feed (lots of sports nerds) that everyone is suddenly really into F1, but it looks like everyone is suddenly really into F1. https://t.co/eMG2MknaJ7 https://t.co/pMkVcyrsP0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RichardHanania Yeah I have little interest into wading his particular claims but vaguely alluding to foreign influence is generally a sign of poor argumentative quality. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I think one can argue that leaking the doc is *more* honorable, particularly if (like most conservatives) you have low trust in the media and don't trust a journalist to neutrally describe its contents. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've been trying to understand the pearl-clutching over the leaks and I think it stems from the naive idea that the Supreme Court is supposed to be "above politics" when instead parties select judges for the Court because they're extremely clever motivated partisan reasoners. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AGHamilton29 What's interesting is how overt it is. It's not some complicated dispute subject (inevitably) to some bias despite best journalistic efforts. In one case they're literally saying that up is down! https://t.co/hcKVmkmSmK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I do think Minneapolis is the sort of city that could struggle with greater remote work, but not to this extent so I'd surmise that it's partly a data artifact. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I've cited the OpenTable data before and I think it's useful in the aggregate but also potentially subject to a few biases, namely selection effects from restaurants departing for other platforms (e.g. Resy). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why Roe could matter, electorally: Voters like the status quo, and usually the party out of power doesn't get to enact major policy changes. Roe being overturned would be a *major* exception and would remind voters how much power Republicans have via courts and state governments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Alternatively, blue-collar voters could regard him as a phony and suburbanites could regard him as a yokel. Anything that can be the best of both worlds can conceivably also be the worst of both worlds. Vance is a pretty heavy favorite but mostly because Ohio is red now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can learn a lot about people based on what makes them completely lose their shit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't see how one can rule out Republicans attempting to ban abortion if they win the Senate with a few seats to spare (not unlikely by 2025). They've been very aggressive about pursuing anti-abortion legislation even in purple states. https://t.co/TzQls3Kept — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe Susan Collins truly believes she was misled by Kavanaugh and Gorsuch. But *~conveniently~* she voted for them when a primary challenge was on the table, GOP leaders cleared the field, and then she voted *against* Barrett in the midst of her general election run in 2020. https://t.co/ASkeJBUjb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a lot of hockey. 145 shots. https://t.co/pdhNYutZCP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are undoubtedly 100s of crowded indoor gatherings across the United States every day. Not to mention millions of people dining at restaurants, going to work or school, etc. It is kinda weird to focus on the WHCD as though it's some sort of outlier; it is very much the norm! https://t.co/CKHoS1GaVH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I get the journalistic intrigue but honestly the story of how the decision leaked really, really, really isn't the most important part of story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Apropos of nothing exactly but I found it hilarious that the Times thought it was important to describe the woman interviewed in the article quite precisely as the "UPS Foundation Professor in the School of Social Science at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J.". https://t.co/iVfsWRwhx7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Worth noting that for cyclical reasons the left-of-center coalition was poised to be very large in ~2008 so Obama had an "all-of-the-above" coalition of 1) leftists 2) liberal centrists, and 3) working-class socially conservative Dems. But, those groups often don't get along. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg Something like ~50% of student loan debt is for graduate school. So one alternative would be to forgive debt associated with *undergraduate* instruction at *public* universities. That might capture a more lower-to-middle-income (and FWIW less Democratic) group. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg I don't think we're in any disagreement! I'm just saying the motivation for this is pretty cynical: 1) it can be done by executive action and 2) it serves narrow political self-interest (people with mid-to-high incomes but student loan debt are quite likely to be Democrats). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg Of course you could do better. There are probably no coherent moral or economic objectives under which forgiving student debt would be the optimal way to achieve the objective. But, student loan forgiveness can be done via executive action whereas others require acts of Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @conor64: The degree to which that tiny faction is out of touch with how unrepresentative their views are and their inability to communi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias For sure, but articles like this aren't framing the issue as "We all agree with the idea of free speech, but the devil is in the details" (sure). Instead they're putting "free speech" in scarequotes and eyerolling at the tech bros' thoroughly middlebrow appreciation of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This article gets it entirely backward as a matter of public opinion. Free speech is a very popular idea with near-universal buy-in across the US political spectrum. The new trend to view it as cringey is confined to a tiny number of journos & academics. https://t.co/StClaLJil5 https://t.co/vKQ6Jbhasc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just total indifference toward any attempt at honesty. It was ~30% and we were way more bullish on Trump's chances than nearly anybody else. https://t.co/rQwVBTnT4Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview @mattyglesias @chrislhayes I sort of agree but I think that mostly presents downside risks for Democrats as there are relatively few direct beneficiaries and a lot of political objections can be raised to forgiving certain types of debts that happen to benefit select, Dem-leaning constituencies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: @mattyglesias @chrislhayes It's not clear that limited student loan relief would be electorally advantageous either, but… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @chrislhayes It's not clear that limited student loan relief would be electorally advantageous either, but you can certainly make an argument either way. Universal relief is what you do if you want to max the chance for President DeSantis to have a filibuster-proof majority in 2025. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @chrislhayes Limited student loan forgiveness polls pretty well, universal student loan forgiveness polls terribly. Given actual or perceived inflation risks and general public resistance to policy change, you've really got to means-test it or it's a complete political disaster. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whatever you think of this as a matter of economic policy, it's probably worth noting that upper-middle-income possessors of student debt are an extremely Democratic voting constituency given educational polarization. — PolitiTweet.org