Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To some extent what's weird is that Democrats are going through names that failed in the past, and/or would replicate the reasons they're worried about Biden and Harris, instead of elevating new names. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jdickerson I don't think the number of times you're told that your wrong is necessarily so relevant, though, so much as being told you're wrong by a diverse range of experts who have studied the question in different, independent ways (and ideally also don't all share the same politics). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jdickerson How often one should persist in a belief against the expert consensus is a super interesting question. The "right" answer is probably some version of "rarely, but not never" since the consensus sometimes gets things very wrong. But figuring out when the exceptions are is hard. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CitizenCohn Yeah I relied on some overly optimistic arrival time projections from the rideshare company I used LOL. "Fortunately" my flight is *also* quite late so turned out to have plenty of time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Never fight a land war in Asia or try to get to Newark Airport from Manhattan in the late afternoon of a summer Friday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias *Revealed* is also not really the correct word since it implies that something previously unknown was disclosed. You could use a word like "demonstrated", I suppose. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@adamdavidson There's a constant sense of impending doom on Twitter! Maybe not IRL although I don't think basking in a sense of impending doom is a good strategy to affect political change. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are definitely exceptions. But in general, the things that people say aren't taken seriously are taken more seriously than the things nobody says that about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Betting markets say there's a 28% chance that Trump gets elected in 2024 (as compared to just 22% for Biden!) so the conventional wisdom takes the possibility of Trump winning pretty seriously. https://t.co/3LzridpDpN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, when I say "Jan. 6", I really mean "Jan. 6, and all of this other bad stuff, too". But maybe historians need a better shorthand. On Wikipedia, the category is "Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election", which isn't very snappy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The policing of the boundary between what is "political" and what isn't is something nearly everyone is hypocritical about, including me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The policing of the boundary between what is "political" and what isn't is someone nearly everyone is hypocritical about, including me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 They also played the Al Pacino "Every Given Sunday" speech while the game was tied with like 5 minutes left in the 3rd and were drawing completely dead from that point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These people really don't understand that if you're trying to build a broad, bipartisan consensus on a certain issue (Jan. 6 was bad; threats to democracy are serious) it necessarily requires building coalitions with people who disagree with you on other issues like abortion. https://t.co/ciq6vK4nC4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not that hard for Democrats to back into holding the Senate if there are subpar GOP candidates in a couple of key states or they just happen to win the races that are decided by a point or two. House is much trickier and requires an unlikely change in the nat'l environment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The problem with a lot of Democratic messaging about Jan. 6 is that they want to persuade people that it was uniquely bad but then they also strike the same tone about a lot of other things. (I'm in the camp that says Jan. 6 / The Big Lie were indeed uniquely bad.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think what these treatments miss is that the boss/managerial class probably gains from remote work more than younger employees. They have nicer homes, and are more established so they don't have to rely on the office as much to make professional and personal contacts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon @MattZeitlin Oddly enough I also spent a year in Palo Alto as a tween and I think I disagree. SF was a place you'd certainly go to visit but was also seen a little ambivalently (very liberal, lots of hippies and gays, cold and windy, not where you want to be in an earthquake). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow I've been on Offensive Rebounds Are Underrated Island for a while now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD I don't agree at all with blaming the leak for it, but yeah it's sort of crazy that it's not being treated as a bigger story (NYT homepage screenshot presented for posterity). There's often more bias in which stories are deemed to be salient than how they're written about. https://t.co/aNJZAdmUG8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Yeah it's actually former Lakers combo guard Alex Caruso (running on a platform of forcing Rob Pelinka to resign for the Westbrook trade). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Crime decreased, other than murder" is sort of a literal "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln—". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss I think they should throw a curveball and have one Jurassic Park where there are some minor, comical mishaps (oops, they served the raw meat meant for the T-rexes at the buffet!) and the adults complain about how the FastPass costs $199 but mostly everyone has a great time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten Also, a mile is a nontrivial unit of distance where as a kilometer is a weird in-between amount that nobody likes. Compare: "My car broke down and I walked 3 miles to get here." "Oh wow, I'm so sorry." "My car broke down and I walked 4.8 kilometers." "Oh yeah? Fuck you, buddy." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten Screw the metric system. Take Fahrenheit, for instance. 0 means cold and 100 means hot, that's awesome. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn I think I'm not mentally adjusting enough for weaker game types where guys will limp with A4o and T9o. The WSOP should be fun! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn What do we think of 3-betting small, like to 1500? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn I guess my thinking is like: Although would be standard to continue with this hand in some fashion against a HJ open, it's not printing EV either (e.g. we're often folding KT or A9o) and so even IDK a ~10% of a LRR pushes it into the red. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn Feels like this is going to be super sensitive to EP's limp-reraising frequency. Seems like even habitual limpers are occasionally mixing it up with some traps (and occasionally even bluffy limp-reraises) these days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Many media outlets, even those that aren't explicitly partisan, have highly partisan audiences. And most social media platforms have left-leaning audiences, except for Facebook which is roughly neutral. https://t.co/Vt0xTXqDQs — PolitiTweet.org