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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@phl43 @beenwrekt @davidzweig I don't know anything about Flaxman so this isn't about him, but I think the problem with intellectually dishonest people often is that they aren't that smart, so they take shortcuts, usually in service of a politically popular (among academics) claim that will get less pushback. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@phl43 I think people particularly give themselves permission to exaggerate/lie about things that are happening in their peer groups. Two good friends and a few acquaintances out of 100s of social contacts having COVID becomes "everyone I know has COVID right now". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AGHamilton29 And I'm aware of the irony of that since abortion and guns were classically issues that united *Republicans* but pro-life and pro-gun Democrats have mostly been sorted out of the party and Dems have been losing ground on these issues and losing motivates more than winning. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AGHamilton29 I think the activist base is a liability in general for Democrats but this is exactly the sort of where they might have a big enough tent despite themselves. Abortion and guns are two issues that really unite the different factions of the Democratic Party as currently construed. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yes, Roe has electoral implications. Major, unpopular policy changes get punished by the electorate. This is Politics 101. Enough to stop the GOP from winning the midterms? Probably not but it makes it less certain or may decrease their margins. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@RossBarkan I mean yeah maybe it's not the most important thing right now but a city like Denver (and maybe other parts of the Southwest depending on which states stay blue) might become attractive relative to cities like Austin for tech firms and knowledge workers looking to relocate. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@phl43 @sc_cath It's also true though that some of the flatten-the-curve people did understand this but then, once any discussion about herd immunity came to be associated with The Bad People, abandoned the initial premises of flatten-the-curve. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@phl43 It has been surprising how few people, experts and nonexperts alike (and dilettantes like you and I) have internalized this fairly basic point. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @lxeagle17: @NateSilver538 Yeah. Roe v. Wade’s repeal was a 50 year project for the GOP that involved recruiting for and winning a metri… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If you're a progressive concerned about conservative judicial overreach then frankly a) it's probably just getting started; b) there's not a lot you can do about it in the short term (other than win elections). So maybe it's time to expand the time horizon to 5, 10, 20 years. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's true in many aspects of life that having a longer time horizon is rewarding. But it's easy to forget that in politics especially in a social media era where you can get algorithmically-rewarded instant gratification. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Good thread from yesterday. Under the 5-4 Roberts majority, the Court largely remained within broad guardrails of public opinion. With 6-3, it's not doing that, trust in the Court is way down in polls, and the consequences are hard to predict in the long term but may be profound. — PolitiTweet.org
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
History shows that the Supreme Court is not fully insulated from public opinion, and it can only push its luck so m… https://t.co/lTeBZZ4wOX
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Jason I guess I *think* you don't do this unless you feel *pretty* good about next steps? But, it's the Knicks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Jason They basically traded the 11th pick, Kemba Walker, and a bunch of future 2nd round picks for 3 future protected 1sts and $14m in cap room. Seems decent enough. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm pro-sportsbetting in general but having markets on draft picks is a scandal waiting to happen. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's probably people with inside information not the oddsmakers per se. — PolitiTweet.org
Marc Stein @TheSteinLine
Vegas might have missed on the Nets and Lakers, but the oddsmakers appear to have known something last night: Paolo… https://t.co/NmGhzRysnl
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
👀 https://t.co/qVscjnRYeu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @GallupNews: Americans’ confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court has fallen to a new low of 25%. https://t.co/7QcmrGKs7F — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Nate_Cohn @davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 Our density calcs are at the census tract level so you can do it by e.g. zip code. It definitely adds a lot if say you're doing a big multivariate regression on CCES data. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Nate_Cohn @davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 Population density definitely adds something especially if you measure it in a smart way. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@thehowie I tend to think the explicitly anti-Trump faction isn't big enough to win many primaries, even in a winner-take-all system, as the GOP has in many states. And some of the anti-Trumpers will be on board with DeSantis. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In certain ways, Trump's position in the primary is most analogous to Hillary Clinton, and the question is whether it's 2008 or 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's still something of an open question whether Trump would have won the GOP nomination in 2016 had the opposition not been so fragmented, so the fact that *one* clear alternative has already emerged for the next nomination, DeSantis, potentially makes 2024 a different story. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's also more utility-maximizing. Given that there hard trade-offs in a pandemic, and also lots of cultural/geographic etc. variables in how the virus speads, tending to let New York City have a different response than South Dakota would seem much better than one-size-fits-all. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The idea that the US pandemic response was too disaggregated seems like a weird conclusion given the various screw-ups made by the CDC. Personally I thought the response by NYC (where I live) was much better than the federal response, for instance. https://t.co/oANY6l6Z2g https://t.co/ALQMJTeEXm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Kind of wish I'd retained a better pre-COVID baseline for how often people cough and sneeze in public. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Matching is easier on the Internet—e.g. finding a romantic partner who shares your personality and interests—but there's also nemesis matching. Twitter exposes you to people you'll find uniquely, incredibly, WTF-level annoying: your anti-soulmates. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Stapes In my chart-topping power ballad "(Highway to the) GTO" I'll explain that JJ often benefits from a mixed strategy so in a sense there's no *wrong* way to play jacks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DougPolkVids Overall much better to have it on the Strip and has been run more smoothly than in past years IMO. Lot of COVID-related issues that mostly aren't WSOP's fault but I think there are things that could be done re: better ventilation, and protocols for when players are sick. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias If I ever get COVID again there's no way in hell I'm gonna tweet about it. — PolitiTweet.org