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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm in that weird overlap on the Venn diagram where I think: 1) Recessions shouldn't be a defined by a committee 2) Recessions shouldn't be defined solely by a 2-quarter decline in GDP — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@TheStalwart Yeah admittedly I'm going off subjective impressions here but the "NYC really clears out in August" thing has felt very true in July this year. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@TheStalwart I think work-from-home might beget more seasonal cyclicality in NYC than other metros. It's always been a place where rich people "escape" for the summer but now it's much more feasible for people to escape for weeks or months at a time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Yeah it's not perfect (I'd put Houston ahead of Dallas for instance) but this list is approximately 100x better as a ranking of US cities than any "best cities" list I've ever seen. https://t.co/PxOfMcpLQt — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Many of these cities are awesome, I'm sure, but these lists tend to be biased towards cities that are cold, expensive, or boring, which suggests that the listmakers have a shitty definition of "livability". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@helaineolen Yeah I think work-from-home is fascinating in part because it is such a glaring exception. Very strong revealed preference that the "market" didn't seem to appreciate pre-pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"People will have a strong desire to return to the pre-pandemic 'normal'" was one of the easier predictions of all-time IMO. — PolitiTweet.org
Ethan Mollick @emollick
People are harder to predict than viruses In 2020, virus experts were too optimistic about stopping COVID, social… https://t.co/qcc7Lxrp8C
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Jason Also, misinformation to say that "most Tweeters don't post replies like this". It is basically the modal Twitter reply *especially* with the grammatical error. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dmorey Poker hands overall aren't *that* bad but *bad beat stories* probably ascend to No. 1 IMO. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MariaHo I was at a wine bar at the other day and had a sharply negative reaction because there was a dude who looked like a German GTO LAG* seated at the counter on my direct left. (* Turned out just to be a random hipster) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Telling a stranger how often you did or didn't get COVID is approximately as interesting a conversation as telling a stranger about your fantasy football draft. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@espiers Yeah podcasts are pretty great for filtering for people who are willing to listen to the longform version of your point-of-view and are usually at least moderately sympathetic toward it, even if they disagree on particulars. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@bendreyfuss More true than false, though I'm data-driven to the extent I try to avoid furniture stores without pricetags which are always hella expensive. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The job of the president is not to demonstrate best practices for working while sick, it's to be the President of the United States, it is not a normal job and not a good one to extrapolate from. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
e.g. "COVID continues to extract a major burden, but we recognize people have returned to their social lives and that's healthy and understandable. But we urgently need investments in better vaccines, treatments and ventilation. And we do ask that you isolate if you're sick." — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This seems right: people resist "taking COVID seriously" because they fear they'll be asked to make major lifestyle sacrifices. A reasonable fear given the past 3 years. So maybe take-COVID-seriously advocates need to say explicitly they're NOT asking for big lifestyle changes. https://t.co/5Jap579hF9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Was this... written by a chair? https://t.co/esdTROfPan — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
^^ Not a group that did well in subsequent primaries. Only Perry even ran again (and the sequel didn't go well, either). Then again, none of them became vice president in the interim. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The list of candidates who were considered formidable (rough heuristic: would have been an early co-favorite in betting markets) but totally flamed out is something like: Muskie (1972) Glenn (1984) Hart (1988) Gramm (1996) Giuliani (2008) Perry (2012) Jeb! (2016) Harris (2020) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Harris is a weird case because, while there are certainly candidates who came back from a failed primary bid to later win a nomination (Romney, Biden) I'm not sure there's one who underperformed so much relative to resources/expectations. She was a frontrunner but quit before IA. — PolitiTweet.org
Ross Barkan @RossBarkan
The Sellers quote is weird because Harris as a presidential candidate never won a single Black vote because she tan… https://t.co/flFoGY5azj
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But seriously, candidates from smaller, "more distinctive" states tend to get re-elected more often, and incumbents in New England have strong track records. Could help Hassan this year. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
New England is weird. https://t.co/F85tR0ropS https://t.co/oyMU3gMLEH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yes and yes? I think reporting on a candidate's mental acuity is strongly in the public interest, both for older candidates and for candidates who suffer strokes or have other neurological conditions. — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Roarty @Alex_Roarty
@julianrouth What's appropriate to ask about a candidate's mental faculties after a stroke? As one neurologist said… https://t.co/n74nij1LMI
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@davidshor @MattGrossmann @PoliticalKiwi I forget in which thread this came up before but I think "entrepreneurialness" would be a good category to measure and I'd guess would be fairly predictive of Republican voting. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I am sure Calgary is great but calling it the 3rd "most livable" city in the world seems to ignore that it's cold and dark for 4 months out of the year and that's a big factor in "livability" for most people. https://t.co/Jzlo9V3wxU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm not really sure what the claim here is. Would the country have been better off had Biden remained extremely physically isolated from other people, avoided travel, etc., a la Putin? I tend not to think so. — PolitiTweet.org
Kristian G. Andersen @K_G_Andersen
I'm just going to retweet this based on the reporting earlier today that @POTUS tested positive for COVID-19. He i… https://t.co/DJQ0LHrcCb
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dancow I think you found the origin of the Virgin vs Chad meme. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Yeah, I wouldn't disagree. It just does lead to some weird disconnects in coverage where reporters seem shocked that people have returned to carrying about as normal. https://t.co/0Bz21Cn3cf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The more closely people follow COVID news, the more likely they are to think "the pandemic is going to get worse" rather than that "the worst part of the pandemic is behind us" (which, with death rates at a fraction of what they once were, it probably is). https://t.co/z47UDk4RoC https://t.co/1GrEJfmtly — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EsotericCD Yeah, this was a huge mistake made by the Expert Class, and this group of people is generally very interested in parsing out reasons and blame for perceived failures. "Let's just move on" is completely hypocritical BS. — PolitiTweet.org
