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Showing page 377 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
My hunch is that the model is overestimating the performance of Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren on Super Tuesday and that these candidates will lose votes to Biden and Sanders (probably more to Biden than Sanders, but both). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
More: * Biden is now the plurality favorite in all *Southern* Super Tuesday states (he already was in the model bef… https://t.co/E9UWVe4tYe — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our model is back on, but it was already pricing in a big South Carolina win for Biden so it isn't much changed. *… https://t.co/oYFtDdVH6F — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Nothing about tonight takes away from Bernie's very strong performance among Hispanic voters in Nevada. It does may… https://t.co/p8LSabfeP4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
THERE'S NO TOM-ORROW https://t.co/07izxo7Lz1 — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
STEYER UP, READY TO GO
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @SteveKornacki: With 59% of SC in, Biden has now passed Sanders in the national popular vote: https://t.co/G7QnYbQ2ZW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @AsteadWesley: I tweeted this a 1000x but a massively impt turning pt in this primary was Iowa and New Hampshire landing on "Biden alter… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Upshot Needle now has Biden projected to win the South Carolina popular vote by ~130K, which would give him the ove… https://t.co/2l1icjA8lk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Looks like the exit poll has been re-weighted based on actual returns to show Biden at ~51% instead of ~45% as befo… https://t.co/SfiVQtqkHO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden went from merely being +4 points or so over Sanders in the SC polling average after New Hampshire to winning… https://t.co/vpncp3Ti0a — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Or if Bloomberg spent Bloomberg levels on money on a Cory Booker SuperPAC. https://t.co/yLoyz3OVFO — PolitiTweet.org
David Byler @databyler
what would happen if someone who was at least okay at politics and not terrible like bloomberg spent bloomberg levels of money
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We didn't get 4 different winners in early states but we did get 4 different outcomes in who won the most pledged d… https://t.co/Y8rwXrAyJk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@databyler @RameshPonnuru If he wins SC by a lot it may be an indication that the race is already closer than you'd infer from national polls, though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Bloomberg FL. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@OsitaNwanevu Similar to 2008, lower than 2016. https://t.co/25DmvZN9qR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
An interesting nugget from preliminary exit polls in South Carolina, via my @ABC colleagues: Although Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in SC, the exits asked voters what they thought of him, and just 25% had a favorable view, based on these preliminary results. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Would be slightly whiter than 2016 but similar to 2008. Older than either year, but note that early exits often underestimate the share of young voters. — PolitiTweet.org
Alexander Panetta @Alex_Panetta
CNN early exit polls from South Carolina: Electorate today 55% African American, 29% over age 65 (vs 10% 18-29), an… https://t.co/xLwdEOFoYy
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @JPosnanski: Quality work. Momentum model puts Bloomberg on the ballot in South Carolina when he isn’t on the ballot in what you might c… — PolitiTweet.org
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers
#SouthCarolina, @GWtweets /GSPM research "momentum model" (Share of vote): Sanders 28.4% Biden 17.5% Bloomberg 18%… https://t.co/aIk1xy6e7q
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I would note: SurveyUSA and Morning Consult tend to be pretty good polls for Biden. So I don't know that I buy that… https://t.co/kBJ6IVWYUG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It is not clear if Sanders is steady, rising or falling. It does seem pretty clear that Biden is rising. We're n… https://t.co/CuJo78xETK — PolitiTweet.org
Nick Riccardi @NickRiccardi
Has Sanders lost ground since winning Nevada? https://t.co/1pKzxsi9Qd
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OMG read these https://t.co/9T0uQNcPgD — PolitiTweet.org
Philip Bump @pbump
How poll respondents described 2020 candidates in one (or a few more) words. https://t.co/I53LZ1dSR1 https://t.co/GbcahfoHCl
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In South Carolina, where Biden looks like the only non-Bernie game in town—especially after having the stronger de… https://t.co/USoxTukYKT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People may be underestimating the degree of tactical voting in this primary. In NH, where Buttigieg and Klobuchar l… https://t.co/osKLvvFcX2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There aren't a *lot* of polls that have >=50% of their interviews since the debate, but all of the ones that we *do… https://t.co/t8Tp2ftxS3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's an example: Biden is up 7 points (while Sanders is down 1 and Bloomberg down 4) in a post-debate poll of Nor… https://t.co/fk5M9vPgHi — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As a corollary, because the model is already pricing in that Biden is quite likely to win SC, he will *not* make ma… https://t.co/VCvS7nuF0C — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Since this question comes up a lot... the model anticipates future bounces. In this case, it anticipates a bounce f… https://t.co/pzzRwsR6lP — PolitiTweet.org
Connor Williams @connorjwills
@geoffreyvs @NateSilver538 @baseballot Question about the model: why does it show Biden winning Texas with 26% of t… https://t.co/uQCxt0Ixtg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We talked to Jim Clyburn about South Carolina and it's clear he's not a fan of Sanders's electability case. https://t.co/z2wVgpiyXv — PolitiTweet.org
Galen Druke @galendruke
"I think it would be very, very hard for us to win," Clyburn says, if Sanders wins the nomination. He compares him… https://t.co/Au6SIKLhPu
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I still have most of these questions from yesterday about the current state of the polls! One thing that could res… https://t.co/5J8uZIllwZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
BIDEN no longer seems to be falling. But is he rising? And if so, is it a broad-based rise, or concentrated among s… https://t.co/7TxhqnfXCP
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattGrossmann @justingrimmer @mattyglesias I don't want to give the paper a signal boost but I think it's unethica… https://t.co/hYBTPtsXEL — PolitiTweet.org
