Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 2, 2020

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Sun Mar 01 03:58:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My hunch is that the model is overestimating the performance of Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren on Super Tuesday and that these candidates will lose votes to Biden and Sanders (probably more to Biden than Sanders, but both). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More: * Biden is now the plurality favorite in all *Southern* Super Tuesday states (he already was in the model bef… https://t.co/E9UWVe4tYe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is, voters will behave more tactically than the model assumes and move toward the top 2 candidates, making "no majority" a bit less likely than it says. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of time for polling between now and Tuesday so tbh we may not know a ton until then. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 1, 2020 Hibernated