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Showing page 369 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's probably true that presidential popularity moves less in response to *all* stimuli these days. On the other ha… https://t.co/ymGP7JLu3U — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
See, I think the "everything is different now!" response (common in markets and a lot of political analysis) is mos… https://t.co/IuW0WdEUN3 — PolitiTweet.org
Masked Mao Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld
This is typically true and likely to hold true but many standard responses have wavered in recent years. Possible e… https://t.co/gTuoa2qCFU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I know a lot of other news this AM but FWIW a lot of new polls coming in any they are not promising for Sanders's h… https://t.co/YfnhkvzOZM — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also don't give me 13-dimensional chess explanations like "a Q2/Q3 recession will yield catch-up growth in Q4 thus helping Trump". The relationship between economic activity and incumbent performance is nowhere near that precisely defined. Recessions are bad for the incumbent. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't get why prediction markets think there's a ~60% chance of a recession this year but that Trump is a ~55% fa… https://t.co/9D2efPwn6o — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
When people who think similarly to one another, who follow another and who are influenced by one another make simil… https://t.co/WKGCxH9kPE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Taniel Yeah, IMO (one case where the polling matches my priors) Biden and Warren were always going to be relativel… https://t.co/arpmPeKh4N — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Overall, your analysis of this primary will tend to have been stronger if you *did* believe in ideological "lanes"… https://t.co/VTMWbYTjK0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If Sanders was only leading Biden by a couple points in head-to-head polls at a time after NH when a lot of when na… https://t.co/gDsjTSnvBQ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People (including me to some extent) interpreted head-to-head polls showing Sanders tied with/slightly ahead of Bid… https://t.co/RrynkKromg — PolitiTweet.org
David A. Hopkins @DaveAHopkins
Still no "lanes"...yes, there's a non-Sanders vote that consolidated, but Bernie was tied with or leading all other… https://t.co/8kuLFeurSV
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Seems like everyone is too scared to poll Michigan — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ABCPolitics: On Tuesday, is Michigan make or break for the Bernie Sanders campaign going forward? @FiveThirtyEight's @NateSilver538 cru… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Basically, I think the Biden campaign is likely to want a trusted name. The "step in on Day 1" test is quite pertin… https://t.co/taum1Dlznq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think Harris is the 2nd most likely pick! But Klobuchar arguably wore better with voters over the course of the… https://t.co/4MO0WDcHgF — PolitiTweet.org
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
She'll be on the list, but why pick Klobuchar when you can pick Harris, who is both more liberal and a person of co… https://t.co/d341cAAdWE
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@baseballot I think Klob is the most likely pick — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This seems more likely to be the result of turnout than voters changing their minds, i.e. center-left voters are tu… https://t.co/gV6QnYeLPc — PolitiTweet.org
Matt Grossmann @MattGrossmann
Across Super Tuesday states, exit polls of the Democratic primary electorate averaged 7 % points more moderate/cons… https://t.co/Ikuqep9QNF
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
*Net* number of Biden vs. Sanders delegates by state VA—Joe Biden +36 AL—JB +34 NC—JB +31 SC—JB +24 TN—JB +14 MN—J… https://t.co/E0liK2Tcc1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here are fresher numbers reflecting more up-to-date statewide data in Texas and district data in California. Biden… https://t.co/yX5Heoe8RE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, here's what we show using currently-reported state totals as of an hour or so ago and reallocating statewide… https://t.co/r5WpCIp6Nk
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is why Sanders needs to turn things around really soon. https://t.co/A9PbzHq1KO — PolitiTweet.org
The Artist Formerly Known as Debate Tracker @TrackerDebate
How favored is Biden? Hypothetical scenario: Biden and Sanders win the delegates in 538's current forecast through… https://t.co/ZSKRBVX2du
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We have Sanders netting out 56 delegates over Biden in California based on currently-reported results. If late-repo… https://t.co/FnIftg6ZbL — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, here's what we show using currently-reported state totals as of an hour or so ago and reallocating statewide… https://t.co/r5WpCIp6Nk — PolitiTweet.org
G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
Update Democratic primaries delegate projections through Super Tuesday states: Biden: 704 Sanders: 637 Bloomberg:… https://t.co/F2xWYuVUDN
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Seems like Bernie's best argument right now—certainly the one his campaign is pushing most consistently—is on Biden… https://t.co/RQKfNOHDkt — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I suppose I don't think it's likely that Bernie *lost* California (though it shouldn't have been called). But as la… https://t.co/gcy659Mq9d — PolitiTweet.org
G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
Biden is gaining ground in CA as the state continues to count votes. Was 9 points behind Sanders on election night,… https://t.co/5J7Boutp13
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
:eyes emoji: https://t.co/joIlF7urtD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One county in CA: a) says no mail ballots left; b) has new results since I pulled Weds. It's tiny Amador County, wh… https://t.co/IzihdHj8MB
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Don't get me wrong, the Democratic primary could easily turn out to be a fight to the finish after all, but I think… https://t.co/rUr0CPczav — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @JonWalkerDC: I don't know why people think it is clever not to have a pollster when trying to win at the polls. Election are popularity… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One other caveat: the model is making a lot of guesses about how Super Tuesday and the recent dropouts will affect… https://t.co/x6ZgzISItl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's an explainer on why Bernie's position is tough (not impossible but *tough*) as well as a change to the model… https://t.co/Md55BUCpmt — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The model is back on! It's quite good for Biden; 88 percent majority chances. https://t.co/TWt3mPQ55N — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's still (spoiler alert) gonna be quite confident in Biden. He's in a very good position, maybe even more so than… https://t.co/MYhCt6BSUC — PolitiTweet.org
