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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@COVID19Tracking @alexismadrigal Yeah, I'm sure they're still missing a lot of cases. But, the number of positives as a share of tests is going down, which seems good. Plus, if tests are relatively constant, that gives us a better idea of the trajectory of the spread. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm a big public transit fan but in cities that rely heavily on public transit, companies probably need to be quicker to adopt work-from-home policies during impeding pandemics, because you're really reducing 2 vectors (workplace and transit) for the price of one. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@fbgchase I think that's a little too high. Cuomo gave an off-the-cuff estimate about the number of tests, and the actual number seems to have been higher. https://t.co/d2iYjMWha2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
While it may be fun to shame people for going to brunch last weekend or de Blasio for going to the gym on Monday, there seems to have been a lot of voluntary social distancing by then. The bigger problems were likely 7-10 days before then when NYC was operating at ~full speed. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, based both on empirical measures and my anecdotal experience, there wasn't a lot of voluntary social distancing in NYC until maybe last Monday (3/11) or Tuesday (3/12). Nor were public authorities especially quick to respond there. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
For some of the same reasons I feel encouraged about Seattle, I am worried about NY. Even though a lot of the new cases reflect more testing, the number of positive tests as a share of all tests is rather high (somewhere between 9-16% in the most recent data vs. ~5-6% for WA). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The numbers in Washington state, which has done far more testing per capita than any other US state, are mildly enc… https://t.co/NzoYTMM0uO
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Major employers in Seattle were also well ahead of the rest of the country in asking employees to work from home. That both helps with social distancing and serves as a signal to people that it's not business-as-usual. https://t.co/QtbbeHKwt9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @KCPubHealth: @NateSilver538 44 is indeed what we posted in our 3/11 release: https://t.co/pZJ3n8I6tJ We post daily case updates at htt… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @elonmusk: @NYCMayor @NateSilver538 Sounds good, we will connect with your team to understand potential needs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The other lesson from Seattle is that—based on e.g. restaurant reservation data—widespread social distancing took… https://t.co/qZonii1IaT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dr_ilardi @COVID19Tracking I don't know if that's right because deaths are going to lag new positives by quite a b… https://t.co/H2pvtkjE0o — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On the less happy side, new cases in Italy, which had appeared to level off, have risen again in the past 2 days in… https://t.co/AeZFKpRQb4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, here are the daily numbers for King County, WA (Seattle), per @KCPubHealth: 3/8: 12 3/9: 33 3/10: 74 3/11: 44* 3/12: 36 3/13: 58 3/14: 60 3/15: 32 3/16: 68 3/17: 30 3/18: 44 * Having trouble tracking down 3/11 so the number is imputed based on the cumulative case count. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The numbers in Washington state, which has done far more testing per capita than any other US state, are mildly encouraging: new cases by day per @COVID19Tracking: 3/11: 105 3/12: 70 3/13: 120 3/14: 111 3/15: 74 3/16: 127 3/17: 135 3/18: 108 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Kansas 18%, Gonzaga 12%, MSU 9%, Duke 9%, Baylor 7%, Dayton 5% — PolitiTweet.org
Sara Ziegler @SaraMZiegler
If the world had not turned completely upside down, we would be settled in for a long day of basketball right now.… https://t.co/tOGxCVvcSU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One of the things we *know* about coronavirus, which has been quite consistent from country to country, is that it afflicts old people much worse. So if a lot of the people ending up in ICUs in the US are young people, it means there's a lot of *undetected* spread among youngs. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, if there are a lot of young people ending up in the hospitals, what that probably means is that the distribut… https://t.co/Awy3MVMM6A — PolitiTweet.org
Josh McCrain @joshmccrain
somebody smarter than me explain how this isn't misleading given lack of denominator, especially with what we know… https://t.co/X1WypzBsgS
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There are *some* things you can say. WA has done more tests per capita than anyone and still has a fairly high posi… https://t.co/kMo0JdW5jF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What's the answer? Which states are safer / have less community spread? The answer is—it's hard to say. You'd have… https://t.co/1LHRRfFaME — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Well, maybe not. *Of the people who get tested*, 9% of cases come up positive in the low-testing states, on average… https://t.co/GFqXDdg7S8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Which states have more spread? Well, the high-testing states report an average of 0.03 cases per 1,000 residents. T… https://t.co/O1VK0DZsXN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
2) Low tests-per-capita states. These states reliably report negative results but have conducted less than 0.2 test… https://t.co/2mycRWXzPF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
For instance per @COVID19Tracking, let's take two groups of states. 1) High tests-per-capita states; these states… https://t.co/S1sv6fNLiJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of the differences in the number of reported coronavirus cases from state to state are the result of testing… https://t.co/maJSbsBEov — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @juliefahey: @NateSilver538 @elonmusk There are a total of 688 ventilators in the state of Oregon. For 4.2 million people. So yes, there… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BenjySarlin Oh see I thought the reaction was the clearest sign of normalcy in a week. That video really needed to be mocked. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @NYCMayor: @NateSilver538 @elonmusk New York City is buying! Our country is facing a drastic shortage and we need ventilators ASAP — we… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @sonof425: @elonmusk @NateSilver538 Children's, Evergreen, and Swedish in Seattle are on the edge. Friends of mine who are nurses there… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
(Or that's @NYGovCuomo, I suppose.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I know @andrewcuomo needs a lot of ventilators in New York. https://t.co/gR2vvvFMTE — PolitiTweet.org
