Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm someone who thinks NYC's response was much too slow but this thread is nonetheless sorta dumb because it mixes clips in all the way from early February through mid-March and the correct public health measures were quite different in early February than in mid-March. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Referring to NYC Metro as a "developing" hot spot isn't really accurate. It's fully *developed*. The peak will probably come sooner there than elsewhere. Need to think 10 days ahead not 10 days behind. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile, Italy has increased testing quite a lot over the past several days (look for "tamponi" in these tables) so what looks like a *plateau* in new cases may in fact be a slight decline. https://t.co/3mA6RYQQON — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These hospitalization numbers remain vital because, as I've stressed many times, the number of positives is highly related to how many people are being tested. NYC metro is testing a LOT which is good (several times more tests than Lombardy at a comparable stage of the epidemic). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know New York State / NYC are trying their best and providing more data than other states, but there have been a lot of spikes in their hospitalization and ICU data from day to day... it remains important to take a multi-day average here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah this seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik Even the polling might be a *little* bit useful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Somebody should set up a pilot program to test 10k randomly chosen Americans a day, that could tell us quite a lot (although the possibility of false positives could be a concern). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I tweet some version of this every day, so here's today's version: It's still very hard to make overly precise interpretations about where you are on the curve unless you know a lot about tests: how many tests, who's getting tested, how and when results are reported. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@docrodwong Italy has had a pretty rapid increase in tests over the past few days which may be making it appear as though there's a bit less progress than there actually is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Almost nothing about what Joe Biden is doing for the next few weeks is gonna matter much for November. And almost everything about what Donald Trump is doing is going to matter a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think you're underestimating how long the ~flat period is before the curve turns around especially if testing is increasing as it is in Italy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, blue states are doing more testing, so the gap in how many cases there *actually* are may be smaller than it appears. https://t.co/qkvajjNqCC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

9 of the 10 states to report the biggest % increases over the past three days were states Trump won. https://t.co/MJHdafBoqA https://t.co/s8DXfuJLWG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are more detected coronavirus cases right now in blue states. But they're increasing faster in red states. https://t.co/T27jU86PYt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't have super strong opinions on the "how many undetected cases of COVID-19 are there?" question but it does seem like the bigger issue there *for right now* is a lack of testing among symptomatic or at-risk people, and not necessarily the number of asymptomatic people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're betting, yeah, of course. But I like when leaders are like "let's take it a few weeks at a time and see how we're doing" since it emphasizes the idea that the first priority is to get the disease under control and you need to be driven by the evidence, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The UK's coronavirus situation is pretty similar to the US's. About the same number of tests per capita. (17 per 10k people in both.) Similar number of positives (2.2 per 10K in UK, 2.5 per 10K in US). Considerably higher death rate in the UK than the US. https://t.co/cU257eNuYq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do **plenty** of media criticism when warranted and there are questions to ask about coronavirus coverage but if your take right now is "actually, this is the media's fault as much as the government's" then you should probably sit this story out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC is dense. It's social. It has a lot of people who travel a lot from all around the world. Those may also have been factors—a lot more likely than "pundit-world". That said, the initial sparks that trigger outbreaks in some places but not others may be somewhat random. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a silly critique. Blaming "pundit-world" for NYC's problems? Most of the data suggests that NYC residents were more alert to risks & doing voluntary social distancing sooner than most places. But voluntary is not enough. Mayor was slow to respond. Federal leaders slower. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if you sweep COVID-19 under the rug it stays under the rug for like ... maybe 2 or 3 days! Then the bill comes due. Then another bill comes due in another 3 days, which is double what the first bill was. And then another bill 3 days later that is quadruple the first bill. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Look, I get the broken incentive structures where you can sweep a problem under the rug and it doesn't have effects until years later when someone else is in a position of power. That's a big problem with our political system and a lot of things in the country generally. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comments by Dr. Birx tonight were really disturbing. Here's why: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the medium run, the number of undetected cases is relevant in forecasting future spread/ICU strain and is one reason why there's a lot of uncertainty in all forecasts. In the long run, undetected cases are potentially relevant in figuring out when herd immunity kicks in. 😬 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the short run, having lots of (mostly undetected) cases but fewer of them require hospitalization, and having fewer cases but a higher percentage of them require hospitalization, are both about equally bad. So either way, the # of hospitalizations is the best short-run metric. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ScottGottliebMD: I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among ot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It continues to be worth noting that testing volume in the US is ramping up very quickly. Results from 100,000 new tests were reported today (some tests are still not reported so this is a floor), versus 27,000 a week ago and 2,200 two weeks ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @TulsiGabbard: Without almost universal testing, it will be impossible to determine whether or not a city/county is high, medium, or low… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: The eye-catching number is probably actually *undercounting* the true number of Americans out of work in the middle o… — PolitiTweet.org