Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Fri Mar 27 00:37:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the medium run, the number of undetected cases is relevant in forecasting future spread/ICU strain and is one reason why there's a lot of uncertainty in all forecasts. In the long run, undetected cases are potentially relevant in figuring out when herd immunity kicks in. 😬 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the short run, having lots of (mostly undetected) cases but fewer of them require hospitalization, and having fewer cases but a higher percentage of them require hospitalization, are both about equally bad. So either way, the # of hospitalizations is the best short-run metric. — PolitiTweet.org

It implies that there are more mild/asymptomstic cases than maybe we otherwise thought. But does that imply that… https://t.co/VRa58GBJGK

Posted March 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comments by Dr. Birx tonight were really disturbing. Here's why: — PolitiTweet.org

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on t… https://t.co/KEBTfGAjyJ

Posted March 27, 2020 Hibernated