Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it's a very "transactional" piece of public policy, directly serving the interests of the people who elected you. That's extremely common, though, in the same way that, say, the Trump tax cuts were. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about student loan debt relief is that, while other policies would be more economically progressive, it fairly efficiently redistributes well-being toward people in the Democratic coalition. Youngish, middle-class-ish college/grad school attendees = a *very* D group. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Yeah the idea that people would be mad because they *only* had $10k forgiven is literally one of the worst political arguments I've ever heard (and I've heard a LOT of bad arguments). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Say for instance that the generic ballot is exactly tied on Election Day and the polls are correct that an equal number of voters would prefer to vote D and R for Congress. Rs would still win the popular vote (by like 1 or 1.5 points back-of-envelope) b/c of uncontested races. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Very technical aside but one thing to keep in mind is that there are quite a few House districts this year where there's no Democrat on the ballot, but not many with no Republican (exceptions mainly in CA). That creates a gap between the generic ballot and the House popular vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sfrostenson: We've now got 4 special elections post-Dobbs, and yes -- they really do show a shift toward Democrats: https://t.co/jOpNcp… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade Certainly fair to point out that this was fairly low turnout (about 1/2 of 2018, though 2018 had super-high turnout for a midterm). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Mechanisms? Trump attracts lots of low-propensity voters. That's helpful in presidential years. But they may not vote much otherwise. And he creates lots of problems for the GOP, including a party that has somewhat given up on trying to win the center of the electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Worth remembering that the GOP has generally performed poorly in Trump-era elections with Trump himself not on the ballot. Meaning 2018 but also for the most part special elections and other one-off elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You don't both respect the vote counting process and declare yourself the winner before any credible news organization has, but that's the type of candidate you're going to get in a district that overindexes on MSNBC viewership by about 10x. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "safe" bet is that the environment regresses for Democrats by November but the environment has been pretty 2020-like so far post-Dobbs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A 2020-type performance is not a particularly high bar to clear for Dems, who had a meh year in races for Congress. But it would be enough for them to be clear favorites in the Senate, and maybe add a seat or two. And the House would be at least a toss-up, probably lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Public colleges and universities have long been fairly popular and efforts to cut their budgets didn't work out all that well for e.g. Scott Walker. But I still expect we'll see an increase in GOP efforts to cut higher education spending as educational polarization ramps up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Feels like there should be a German word for the kind of luck where the security line is a clusterfuck, which would ordinarily cause you to miss your flight, *but* your flight is late. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's an editorial saying 1) a Trump indictment would be highly partisan 2) some of the reason for this is b/c of how Democrats handled the Russian colluson story. I agree with parts, disagree with others but to use phrases like "mainstream media complicity" is way over the top. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not sure it's just politicians and pundits. There was an *enormous* amount of mainstream media reporting devoted to Russia in 2017/18. While most of that reporting was good and responsible not sure it holds up well as a resource-allocation decision given everything else going on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(And yes, I know why.) https://t.co/1ZBtW4CeNi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Use of the term "crudité" is skyrocketing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Atrios I own several mirrors, in fact! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Whether or not it's been good from a sport or economic standpoint I think it's surprising that the MLS cartel has held and we don't have a few soccer clubs in the US trying to compete on a European level. There are surely some billionaires who would be happy to try. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's *also* the case that academics and journalists often mispredict how their arguments will be weaponized over the long run; noble lies often backfire and credibility matters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I feel so old-fashioned but still think both academia and journalism should be scrupulously truth-seeking and "how could this be weaponized politically?" should be a second-order concern at best. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Everywhere you look these days, there’s a poll showing a Democrat tied or even leading in states they were expected to lo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

#TrustTheScience — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tangotiger I am happy to co-sign a petition that all of these should count toward OBP! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tangotiger Yeah I agree, at the very least reached-on-error should count toward OBP, I just think there's often wildly inconsistent enforcement from scorers as you go from doubles to triples to inside-the-park HRs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tangotiger Like ~50% of inside-the-park HRs should probably be scored as base hits / doubles / triples + errors by the rulebook? That's no fun, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @alex_shephard: guy looks like he threw 27 INTs for the Chicago Bears in 2009 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AGHamilton29 Yeah the gap between the grandiose claims made by the authors of these papers and evidence that at best moves their case from the 45th to the 43rd yard line ought to make a person trust them less. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As someone from Michigan I don't like devoting too much attention to Ohio but I did write about its Senate race. https://t.co/Z9CkUnCmiG — PolitiTweet.org