Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't quite get how you run this headline and then run a chart right below it that seems to (partly) contradict it. (New cases are indeed increasing in Singapore but they they seem to be decreasing in Hong Kong and Taiwan.) https://t.co/VbTqpcFfCb https://t.co/q0ZL4uDS1N — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Italy—where the testing situation looks much like here (gradually increasing with fluctuations)—had a period of 10-12 days where new cases were roughly at a plateau, before taking a more unambiguous turn downward. The US has now been at a plateau for 7 or 8 days. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://t.co/MCYvY9tv5m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Things have flattened out quite a bit. It's hard to tell whether they've flattened but still sloping up, flattened but now sloping down, or what, and it depends on how you account for testing volume, which does continue to increase some but with fluctuations from day to day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly-reported deaths: Today: 1,904 Yesterday: 1,867 One week ago (4/2): 1,089 Newly-reported cases: T: 34K Y: 30K 4/2: 28K Newly-reported tests: T: 163K Y: 140K 4/2: 119K Share of tests positive: T: 21% Y: 22% 4/2: 24% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The media should also recognize that "2016 is the new normal" led to a lot of really 💩 takes on how 2020 would unfold. This isn't that complicated, folks. Look at a larger sample of elections and not just the most recent 1 or 2. You'll still be wrong a lot, but way less often. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2016 is not the new normal. And assuming it was led to Bernie's campaign to make a lot of poor strategic choices. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/cmHfTFZtAQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But while I think it's good to think about how laypeople will interpret scientific or statistical evidence, some of the takeaways that seem crafted for public consumption seem too far removed what the underlying studies say. I'm not in love with it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sympathetic to what's happening here. Scientists don't want people to treat temperature as a cure-all. Also, there's a lot of uncertainty/disagreement in the studies. And it doesn't seem like any suggest that temperature will stop the spread (reduce R to <1) all on its own. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Mentioned this yesterday, but the conversation around the effect that temperature has on COVID-19 is strange. There's a lot of stuff where the headlines say be "nope, no effect" but you read the details and they seem to say there probably is some effect. https://t.co/FZLDOR86y6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a selection: Belgium 17.7 deaths per 1M people yesterday Spain 16.0 UK 13.8 Sweden 9.5 Italy 9.0 France 8.3 Netherlands 8.6 Switzerland 8.6 USA 5.9 Ireland 5.1 Portugal 4.3 Germany 4.0 Austria 3.4 Denmark 2.6 Norway 2.2 Finland 1.1 Poland 0.9 https://t.co/9fFIJJjqhz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's this notion the US is lagging behind Europe in death rates and is "catching up", but I'm not sure that's true. Yesterday was a really bad day for the US. 2nd-highest number of deaths reported here. But a lot of European countries were worse on a per capita basis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe people should shame Sweden and not hipsters standing 5.9999 feet from one another in Prospect Park. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This continues to follow a very predictable course, where the share of tests that come up positive in NY has declined a bit each day. State just posted its data and 40.2% of newly-reported tests were positive, down from 41.7% yesterday & 48.1% a week ago. https://t.co/MtU6toy8TO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd really love to see some fly-on-the-wall reporting about the Sanders campaign's strategy at this point in time (one day before the Nevada caucus). This tweet wasn't a fluke; it was very much also reflected in Sanders's messaging at rallies, etc. https://t.co/nlTmPUVU2J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lowest number of net new hospitalizations in New York since 3/18. And it's on a middle-of-the-week day, so shouldn't be any day-of-week effects. This is good news. https://t.co/Rjnlq19RwB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn I'm just saying you don't have to go too far out on a limb to get to, say, the IHME projections. I don't know if they'll ultimately be right, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn The US has done more testing than W. Europe as a whole, meaning that our true infection rate is likely to be considerably lower. That + a younger population + interventions coming at a slightly earlier stage in the process, will probably keep our death toll lower than theirs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BenjySarlin: There’s going to be a lot of this, especially since there’s already some kind of vote by mail in most states. But it’s als… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One lesson of the Democratic primary is that people on this platform mistake things they find personally annoying for being electorally important. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik Well, yeah, that's the thing... you have to know enough about the subject to give an article a critical reading *or* to know it's from an extremely reliable source. (Wouldn't say you have to do both.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not such a high a bar. I'm not asking you to teach a university lecture or take a pop quiz on the subject. Many posts in this vein are not clearing the "competently explain it to your parents" bar, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Don't share scary-seeming headlines with stuff like "SCARY!" and then a quote-tweet of the article unless you understand the underlying subject matter well enough that you could competently explain it to your inquisitive parents. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since Biden wound up winning the primary mayyyyybe this is evidence that Facebook advertising is extraordinarily overrated in its importance some of us (well, me anyway) have long maintained. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Every 1 case in mid-February becomes something like 10-20 cases by March 1st. So this would make a pretty big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways, although it would make de Blasio look even worse, an earlier introduction would be good news for NYC in the sense that it explains why there's so much COVID-19 in the city for reasons that may have less to do with density or other intrinsic properties of NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... now there are a pair of studies confirming by suspicion that coronavirus was spreading in NYC by mid-late February. https://t.co/GMxLyCxdaE https://t.co/xyyL32vcvS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, and it's like... there was a lot of academic/epidemiological discussion about coronavirus and weather a month or so ago. And now there should be a *lot* more data on it (with outbreaks or lack thereof in more countries) and there's much less. It's a bit weird. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias weather* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias To me, the communication around whether has been poor. The fact that it's almost certainly not a cure-all (not enough to push R<1 on its own) does not mean that it can't have meaningful effects, enough that it should arguably be a consideration in our medium-range planning. — PolitiTweet.org