Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the seeming paradoxes that comes through in this Bill Gates interview is that the more optimistic one tends to be about vaccines and treatments the more one tends to be *against* opening back up right now—and hence one can seem more pessimistic. https://t.co/mvZrKQHS0V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not clear whether you're referring to the medium run (what happens while COVID-19 is still a threat) or the long run. In the medium run, sure, we'll have to make all sorts of accommodations. In the long run, it's not obvious how many we'll like/keep. https://t.co/fgJRUWTDMj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, there are a lot of unplanned experiments being performed. But in at least some cases, it seems like people are unhappy with the digital replacements for the physical experience. Education is one example. Live performance (concerts, etc.) maybe another. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A severe thunderstorm disrupts most of these categories (+ others such as energy). The question is whether to expect a new equilibrium when the storm recedes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The equilibrium could shift. It's likely a bit nonlinear. It already seems to be different in different countries. These are hard problems with hard trade-offs. It's not like the current equilibrium is some longstanding practice; we're all improvising as we go along. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "even if you open stuff back up, people won't come" take is smart IMO in the short run—indeed, I think people generally underweight the importance of voluntary social distancing. But possibly overrated/overconfident in the medium run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, one issue where I really only want to hear from well-credentialed experts is on the probability and timeline for a vaccine. And the experts seem reasonably optimistic. (Though all caution about at least a year-long+ timeline). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik I think we'll get to the point soon where people will prefer a plan with caveats to no plan. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways blue-state governors may be fortunate that "end the lockdowns!" sentiment is associated with (unpopular in their states) Trump and Trump supporters. It may mean that support for lockdowns among Clinton, etc. voters will stay higher for longer than it might otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Canada had seemed to be off to a very good start on coronavirus but it's now recording death tolls that are about ~2/3 of the US rate on a per-capita basis. https://t.co/ZtcplJfYgb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Public support for lockdowns remains quite high in the US. And people were realistic; they didn't expect them to last only a few weeks. But that also doesn't mean they signed up for indefinite lockdowns without a reopening plan—so states may need to articulate those plans soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd imagine that we could see similar timelines in the US, though note that Italy's peak came sooner than in the US epicenters and therefore their timeline for reopening might be earlier also. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MKWilliamsRome: #Italy PM @GiuseppeConteIT releases details of end to lockdown. May 4: manufacturing, construction & wholesale for cons… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Same caveats as usual apply though: * Reporting of death tolls can be low and a bit erratic on the weekends. * A lot of the improvement we're seeing is in NY, where death tolls are now ~1/2 of their peak. Degree of improvement (if any) outside NY varies from state to state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

An encouraging day. Lots of tests! Fewest deaths since 4/6. Lowest share of positives* since 3/16. * Since some states don't report negative tests at the same time they report positives, it's really more like "ratio of newly reported positives to all newly reported tests". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths: Today: 1,184 Yesterday: 2,194 One week ago (4/19): 1,654 Newly reported cases: T: 27K Y: 41K 4/19: 27K Newly reported tests: T: 256K Y: 298K 4/19: 167K Share of tests positive: T: 11% Y: 14% 4/19: 16% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are people on here who (correctly) scream about how important it is to increase testing, but then freak out because a state detected more cases because it increased testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's largely because Wisconsin is now doing about twice as many tests per day as they had been before. The rate of positive tests is holding roughly steady. You've got to account for increases in testing capacity or you can really mislead people. https://t.co/SiO52rDwL8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Y'all can do whatever you want but I'm going to a fuckload of concerts, baseball games, restaurants, etc. as soon as this is over. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BruceFeiler @COVID19Tracking Appreciate it Bruce! (Even the grammar tip!). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something I'm not sure about: does improving test capacity also lead to correctly identifying more deaths as having been from COVID-19? It seems possible that's true in some edge cases, but I have no idea how widespread. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The rise in the number of cases shouldn't be alarming. We're suddenly doing about twice as many tests as we were a week ago, which is good, so we're finding more cases. Still, back over 2,000 deaths, and on a weekend no less (usually slower for reporting). That's not good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US numbers via @COVID19Tracking. LOTS of tests today. Newly-reported deaths Today: 2,194 Yesterday: 1,772 One week ago (4/18): 1,774 Newly-reported cases T: 41K Y: 31K 4/18: 28K Newly-reported tests T: 301K Y: 224K 4/18: 141K Share of tests positive T: 14% Y: 14% 4/18: 20% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Yeah it might not even be possible yet to have the proof they'd require. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

WHO has fucked this up on other issues too, such as masks. Definitive proof is hard to come by in the early stages of a new disease. So you have to work through priors, probabilities, incomplete evidence. https://t.co/TlbKyT8SwU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The consensus of the evidence, as best as I can tell, is that there’s very likely to be some degree of immunity, although we don’t know how absolute it is and for how long it confers and there's still a lot to be learned about it. https://t.co/VKIyTMK2Eu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

WHO needs to improve its communication on this. When they say “no evidence” they mean something like “no definitive proof, yet”. But the average person is going to read it as “there’s no immunity to coronavirus”, which is likely false and not a good summation of the evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now that testing is increasing again in many states, you've really got to account for this or any figures you cite may be flatly misleading. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Massive increase in testing in New York; 47K tests conducted yesterday alone. The percentage of positive tests continues to decline. https://t.co/IrAepiRrmO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Eager to buy any product that's like "eff yeah!" instead of "in these challenging times..." — PolitiTweet.org