Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, yeah, it's not bad. It's an area where the US has shown a lot of improvement and the media narratives around testing are a little stale. Unfortunately, we haven't made much progress in many other areas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We have tested roughly the same number of people per capita (within +/- 25%) as South Korea, Germany, Australia, Singapore, Canada, the UK, Hong Kong and France. Some are a little higher and some are a little lower. https://t.co/9fFIJJjqhz https://t.co/3F4vWSxYAO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @TheStalwart Probably already past the point where some governors are going to realize that the media largely doesn't bother to account for testing and will avoid increasing testing to make their numbers look superficially better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lowest positive test rate yet, and another day with 300K+ tests. Not bad at all. Still very discouraging to see 1,500+ deaths reported on a weekend, when reporting can be slower. Though that's been less true of Sat than Sun/Mon and this is the lowest number on a Sat since 4/4. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths: Today: 1,529 Yesterday: 1,760 One week ago (5/2): 1,651 Newly reported cases: T: 25K Y: 28K 5/2: 30K Newly reported tests: T: 301K Y: 303K 5/2: 253K Positive test rate: T: 8% Y: 9% 5/2: 12% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like people actually think they're being bold and contrarian by saying "well, Trump might win despite all this..." but it's the most boringly conventional position in the history of political punditry. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is kind of 180 degrees backward. Very few people are saying Trump can't win and in fact the conventional wisdom is much more confident about his chances than otherwise would be because of 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @CMONEYMAKER: Was a fun table gg to all. Especially @NateSilver538 with a strong 2 nd place and tough battle heads up. Good luck in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, I've given to ROAR/Robin Hood myself separately from the tournament to make sure they get something from me just in case I don't make the final table. But, of course, I'm planning to make the final table! 2pm here: https://t.co/npbasjoyO2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The charity I've designated is ROAR, which is affiliated with @RobinHoodNYC and is providing assistance to displaced restaurant and food-service workers in New York. Robin Hood is a strongly-rated charity and I'd encourage you to donate to them here: https://t.co/4sJJpj6cWQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Will be broadcast live here at 2pm: https://t.co/8Jf796f1VE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey all I am participating in this charity poker tournament at 2pm Eastern today with a bunch of people who are actually talented and famous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The problem is these steps require (i) patience and (ii) willingness to listen to experts, things in short supply in the WH. Trump's political instincts are overrated in general but are a terrible match for this crisis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As I wrote earlier, most of the steps experts are urging would *help* Trump's re-election prospects. They're fairly popular unto themselves (for now). And they'll give us a fighting chance of returning closer to normal by November with fewer fatalities along the way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These views aren't particularly common or popular among Trump voters, though. Only among perhaps half of Trump voters or fewer. That is, these positions (strongly anti-distancing or anti-masks) split the Republican base while aligning everyone else against Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah, seems like proximity could be proxy for a lot of things. What if different waitstaff worked that group of tables? Or they used utensils cleaned by a different dishwasher, etc.? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cold (but true) take: Trump would increase his re-election odds, perhaps greatly, if he took more steps that public health experts advised him to take. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have no idea the extent to which sports teams doing testing would "use up" available tests but one thing they might consider is to work to expand testing infrastructure in their cities ways that would also benefit the general population. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery Yep, that was a problem even in pre-COVID America. The rest stops we stopped at were generally clean enough and not very crowded, although we wore gloves and masks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery As someone who had to drive halfway across the country in the midst of this at one point, I don't think driving should put you in many situations where there's much danger, and a lot of the business you might visit (e.g. gas stations) will also likely be taking precautions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think the "things are getting worse" narrative got a little ahead of itself in certain ways this week, in part by not accounting for increased testing... HOWEVER... if there are problems caused by reduced social distancing, it is likely too early to see them in the data yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some positives in here. Tests above 300K for the second day in a row, so this is the most tests in any consecutive 2-day period. The positive test rate has been below 10% for 4 out of the last 5 days after having peaked at ~20% nationally (the peak was around ~16% without NY). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 1,760 Yesterday: 2,746 One week ago (5/1): 1,739 Newly reported cases T: 28K Y: 28K 5/1: 33K Newly reported tests T: 303K Y: 319K 5/1: 297K Positive test rate T: 9% Y: 9% 5/1: 11% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @conorsen On the flip side, I suspect that college-educated people in blue states will initially be more inclined to maintain social distancing since that's they perceive their peers to be doing, but that the equilibrium could flip quickly if they see other people out and about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @conorsen I suspect that whether you personally know people who have recently gotten COVID or (related to this) have had to self-quarantine are pretty big factors in people's behavior. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @conorsen I'd go to a restaurant before I'd get on a plane. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think "at some point, people's risk tolerance will increase" is a decent prediction. But I also think there are a lot of feedback loops. If people let their guard down too much, cases will rise again. You know people who are getting sick, you start being more careful again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @conorsen I don't think there's nearly as much NYC -> FL tourism flow in the summer as in the winter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mlipsitch @MarkSlifka FWIW that New York data is based on people entering hospitals. So selecting for more severe cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Maybe of the late spring but the opposite could plausibly be true by the summer. — PolitiTweet.org