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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nick_bunker: Folks, it's not a very good "conspiracy" if adding the misclassified data makes the decline look *BETTER* https://t.co/oAw… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Still should be a wake-up call that the candidate who led in polls for all of 2019 won the nomination and yet somehow it took many people on this platform totally by surprise. — PolitiTweet.org
Emma Kinery @EmmaKinery
Joe Biden has officially garnered the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination according to the AP
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Without those changes, there would have been 860 deaths 23K cases 506K tests still a 5% positive test rate So it would still be a record testing day (first day over 500K), though not by as much. It would also have been 3 straight days with deaths below 1000, however. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Michigan changed the way it reported cases and deaths (adding probable cases and deaths) and Minnesota changed the way its reports tests. More details here: https://t.co/50UxiIH0jK https://t.co/7o6Gknfr7R — PolitiTweet.org
The COVID Tracking Project @COVID19Tracking
A couple of states in the midwest changed the way they report and affected the topline numbers. Minnesota changed… https://t.co/O9eZOILJyl
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Weird one here, see next tweet. Newly reported deaths Today: 1,100 Yesterday: 884 One week ago (5/29): 1,185 Newly reported cases T: 29K Y: 21K 5/29: 24K Newly reported tests T: 551K Y: 466K 5/29: 492K Positive test % T: 5% Y: 4% 5/29: 5% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm Yeah, there have been a lot of states when things looked pretty bad for a couple of weeks and then abated a bit, as was the case in DC/MD/VA a few weeks ago, for instance. But I wonder if we'll be as fortunate in avoiding sustained increases post-lockdown. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @youyanggu: @NateSilver538 I made a map of the current estimated R_t that helps illustrate your point. https://t.co/nKY34c3QAa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That's part of why the national numbers have looked pretty good even though there are a lot of states to be worried about. The numbers tend to be either high but falling, or low but rising—but not many places where they're high and rising. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One dynamic worth mentioning is that states where there's the most robust evidence of COVID-19 infections rising right now, such as Utah, Arizona and North Carolina, tend to be places where they didn't have particularly bad outbreaks to begin with. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I guess this is progress but, given the weight of the evidence, still seems like WHO is in denial about how bad they effed up on masks. — PolitiTweet.org
Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
2. @WHO recommends people 60 and older and people with underlying conditions wear masks in public in areas where th… https://t.co/XBLxIxdBAO
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's interesting that so many countries wound up doing some version of the same thing (lock down for ~2-3 months and then reopen) somewhat without regard to either their political system or how good/bad their coronavirus situation has been. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Lots of countries lifting lockdowns despite pretty bad coronavirus numbers. https://t.co/VvFkSV5MPY — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One thing I'm unapologetically "both sides" about is that both sides engage in massive amounts of motivated reasoning and confirmation bias around statistical data. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I see it didn't take long to progress to the stage where (some) liberals are questioning the BLS jobs numbers. While one should always hold data up to scrutiny, especially if it shows big, unexpected changes, seems like there's also likely to be a lot of motivated reasoning here. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The numbers for the past couple of weeks have come in a pinch better (fewer deaths) than some of the models expected, which is good news, of course. But only slightly, and they've generally been well within each model's confidence interval. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's actually quite well in line with expert projections from April, etc. The media tends to focus on outlier projections that are either too high or too low. (Not unlike polls!) But the consensus of projections has done a rather good job. https://t.co/c28TxaCJeC — PolitiTweet.org
Ronald Klain @RonaldKlain
Improvement in some places, not others. But big picture: if you had said in April that nearly 1000 people EACH D… https://t.co/de9AWqoIr5
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The usual caveats apply, though. There's a LOT of state to state variation, with clearer declines in the Northeast and the Midwest than in the South and the West. And these numbers are backward looking. We don't yet know much about the impact of Memorial Day, protests, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Folks, this is a pretty good report. Midweek days (Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays) typically feature high death counts. But we've now had two days in a row with deaths < 1,000. Also 3 out of 4 days with a positive test rate <5%. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 909 Yesterday: 995 One week ago (5/28): 1,279 Newly reported cases T: 21K Y: 20K 5/28: 22K Newly reported tests T: 466K Y: 457K 5/28: 408K Positive test rate T: 4% Y: 4% 5/28: 6% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Craig_A_Spencer: Fellow New Yorkers: If you've been peacefully protesting or staying at home, NYC is recommending ALL New Yorkers get… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BenjySarlin FYI, Spain saying it had 0 deaths in a day is complete and total bullshit. https://t.co/ZsEh3WrxSf — PolitiTweet.org
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
NEW: much has been made this week of Spain recording zero new Covid deaths for two successive days. Spanish Prime… https://t.co/RUHEhETpoP
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, and part of the whole Southern Strategy was communicating via subtext, euphemism, etc. Whereas Trump always says the quiet part out loud. — PolitiTweet.org
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes
This captures something under-appreciated about 1968. Nixon ran almost as a kind of moderate, triangulating against… https://t.co/YQK2iU9l7g
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ameliatd: Chauvin & the other 3 officers who were on the scene at George Floyd's death are facing criminal charges. But that's the exce… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @perrybaconjr: We looked at the views of police officers on race and policing, with the help of some great polling from @pewresearch. ht… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @jburnmurdoch: NEW: much has been made this week of Spain recording zero new Covid deaths for two successive days. Spanish Prime Minist… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AJentleson Plausible, though? I guess if Trump is down 10 points in early October and he thinks it might help the GOP cut its losses in Congress... — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @poniewozik: @NateSilver538 Fox News' 8-11 p.m. lineup. Trump's power is more media- than party-based. Even then, the damage might be mo… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @poniewozik: @NateSilver538 Fox News' 8-11 p.m. lineup. Trump's power is more media- than party-based. Even then, the damage might be mo… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen @mattyglesias LOL I was just thinking that. If it were Romney, Hatch and a bunch of other LDS-affiliated politicians, then maybe? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Who's in the overlapping part of the Venn diagram of Republicans/conservatives who (i) could plausibly repudiate Trump and (ii) would materially hurt Trump if they did? — PolitiTweet.org
