Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've been looking at these polls and while there had been some gradual gains by "reopen" from initially low levels, this is a much sharper shift and could plausibly reflect the protests and the messaging from public health officials around them. Need more polls on this, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a BIG shift toward reopening in a Pennsylvania poll. Independents went from 30/57 against reopening in April to 48/40 in favor of reopening now. Republicans went from 50/26 in favor to 78/8 in favor. Democrats went from 4/92 against to 9/76 against. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @shom_mazumder: My latest for @FiveThirtyEight on what political science can tell us about why protests work and when they might come s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks, be VERY careful with those headlines about "WHO says asymptomatic transmission rare". They may not mean what you think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... not quite sure what to think about this one. These numbers would ordinarily be pretty encouraging, but Mondays are typically slow days. In fact, the numbers are a bit *worse* than last Monday. On the other hand, last Monday was unusually good, even for a Monday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 640 Yesterday: 453 One week ago (6/1): 478 Newly reported cases T: 16K Y: 20K 6/1: 16K Newly reported tests T: 380K Y: 447K 6/1: 404K Positive test rate T: 4.3% Y: 4.5% 6/1: 4.0% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

True. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And ultimately, it is the job of governments and the political system, and certainly not the job of individual experts, to sort out these competing claims, since they require expertise in a lot of areas that no one individual has a monopoly on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is an important addendum. The leadership vacuum makes all of this much more difficult. Not only do experts disagree, but they have different types of expertise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump's approval rating generally doesn't move much, so this is really one of the steeper shifts we've seen, even though it's only a couple of points. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/Nl63Hj4wcr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggiekb1: The two autopsies of George Floyd don't actually disagree, experts told me. "Take away the compression, and he doesn't die."… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AnnieLowrey: breaking news: we're in a recession https://t.co/bC8P7L9WDg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: Some good news today: the incredibly talented @elenamejialutz is joining us @FiveThirtyEight as an Associate Visual Journali… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There perhaps is something to be said for maintaining the appearance of nonpartisanship in public health messaging. e.g. I wish this article were simply about the need to proceed cautiously on vaccines and not framed around a Trump "October surprise". https://t.co/MdJ1lOyVhA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And, yes, there are individual members of the public health community who have smart, coherent plans. But the consensus collapsed a long time ago. Everyone agreed on locking down for 3-6 weeks as a first step (and it saved lives) but not really on what came after that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

TBH, I don't have much idea right now what the public health community thinks our strategy is supposed to be. This is only partly due to the protests. Even before then it wasn't clear on which conditions they favored re-opening, even as ~all states/countries began to open anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think you could probably get some new lockdowns if there are big, steep, sustained spikes. And to some extent, people will alter behavior on their own if they hear about friends, neighbors, etc. getting sick. But otherwise, it may be hard to build a consensus for them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There continue to be some states where cases are NOT decreasing ... and in some cases, are increasing even once you account for increased testing. Mostly in the Southwest or the Southeast. https://t.co/jA3xSY4iCa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sundays are typically slow days for reporting, so be careful about extrapolating too much. Nonetheless, this is the fewest deaths reported in a day since March 28. Cases also down a tick from last Sunday despite slightly more tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 453 Yesterday: 746 One week ago (5/31): 667 Newly reported cases T: 20K Y: 23K 5/31: 23K Newly reported tests T: 457K Y: 547K 5/31: 406K Positive test rate T: 4.4% Y: 4.3% 5/31: 5.6% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If instead now the framing is more like "risk of death/long-term illness vs. well-being" I don't know which "side" has the better part of the argument politically, especially if welfare improvements from opening up are broad but the health harms fall on a small % of the populace. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Generally speaking, framing lockdowns vs. opening up as a question of "economy vs. health" did a lot of favors for the lockdown side of the argument. People are usually going to choose health when you put it to them like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So far, no backsliding in New York. Just 1.3% of tests were positive statewide yesterday. Slightly higher (1.8%) in NYC itself. https://t.co/MtU6toy8TO https://t.co/xveInfUY3b — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, this paints a somewhat uncertain background as we wait to see the impact of various events (Protests! Crowded Vegas casinos! Memorial Day weekend!) that likely involve larger number of people coming together than the one-off breakdowns of social distancing we saw before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of things going on here. Deaths continue to fall with the 7-day average now down to 859. Cases have mostly plateaued rather than continued to fall; however, tests are increasing, so the positive % has declined. But, there are states where things don't look so great. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 746 Yesterday: 1,100 One week ago (5/30): 970 Newly reported cases T: 23K Y: 29K 5/30: 24K Newly reported tests T: 547K Y: 550K 5/30: 431K Positive test rate T: 4.3% Y: 5.2% 5/30: 5.7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SusanPage: Exclusive: In the space of a week, the positive perceptions of the police by white Americans have dropped by double digits.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: .@YohuruWilliams taught me a lot just in this 40-minute discussion. Very much worth a listen if you want to get smart abo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So without wanting to wade too much into certain debates, it's worth noting that the consensus may have been fragile. Distancing is hard, we're all improvising and making educated guesses about the trade-offs, and it requires fairly broad buy-in among a highly polarized society. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Personally, I'm surprised that the consensus around social distancing lasted as long as it did. Yes, there were partisan splits but something like half of GOPers along with large majorities of Dems and indies supported it. So maybe 70% overall. That's high as far as the US goes. — PolitiTweet.org