Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The two most overrated COVID terms right now are "spikes" and "second wave". We never really exited the first wave! And in particular, the places that are seeing big increases right now tend to be places that *didn't* get hit all that hard in March/April and maybe got complacent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Deaths below 1,000 on a mid-week day, which is good news (that didn't used to happen very often). But otherwise... not so great. It's really looking more like a plateau than a decline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 898 Yesterday: 889 One week ago (6/4): 884 Newly reported cases T: 20K Y: 21K 6/4: 21K Newly reported tests T: 420K Y: 420K 6/4: 460K Positive test rate T: 5.1% Y: 5.2% 6/4: 4.7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Herring_NBA: My latest for @FiveThirtyEight, with @Neil_Paine: Maya Moore Gave Up More To Fight For Social Justice Than Almost Any Athl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump net approval (-14.0) now his lowest since the shutdown in January 2019. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/NVLujFeKPW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @geoffreyvs: President Trump’s approval has fallen back to 41% in @FiveThirtyEight’s tracker. Turns out, Trump’s actions and events can… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Deaths continue to slowly decline. But, although some days (e.g. yesterday) reflected improvement, the other numbers have generally been at more of a plateau nationwide, with improvements in some places offset by worsening numbers elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 889 Yesterday: 941 One week ago (6/3): 971 Newly reported cases T: 21K Y: 18K 6/3: 20K Newly reported tests T: 420K Y: 413K 6/3: 459K Positive test rate T: 5.0% Y: 4.3% 6/3: 4.4% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jazzmyth: We have a excellent @FiveThirtyEight interactive for you this morning by @ryanabest and @KaleighRogers illustrating the wide… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MysteryPollster: Nate's point is illustrated by my newly published analysis, which shows that in those areas affected early — with *ver… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of it is that as media has shifted from being dominated by centrist outlets to more ideological/partisan ones (not necessarily a bad thing!) the idea of turning out your base to win elections has gained esteem because it implies you don't have to compromise on policy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JamesSurowiecki: This is similar to a point I made about the way the coronavirus death toll is now spread out across much of the countr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @atmccann: Only the worst disasters completely upend normal patterns of death — Hurricane Maria, 9/11, the Spanish flu. We looked at how… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there's a potential disconnect between constant media discussion about "spikes", and the fact that in an area where e.g. 0.5% (but growing) of people are currently infected—many of whom don't get tested and don't know it—you may not personally know people who have it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These numbers are still potentially quite worrying if sustained and/or growing over a long period of time. Also, even in a lot of places where cases have declined, there's still a high background level of transmission. Rhode Island is at 2.1% currently infected, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By contrast, a sample of the number of people currently infected in some of the hotspots that are getting media attention today: 0.6% (Georgia), 0.7% (Los Angeles), 0.6% (Arizona), 0.4% (North Carolina), 0.4% (Dallas), 0.4% (Florida), 0.2% (Utah). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other places were also VERY high. 5% were simultaneously infected in New Orleans, Boston and Detroit at their peaks. When this many people are sick at once, you really notice it. Why? Friends and family get it. You may have to self-quarantine, etc. https://t.co/A5Pfpmbqt3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something I don't think is appreciated is the extent to which current coronavirus spread in the US is occurring at a medium-high level in many places, as opposed to a super-high level in some places. At the peak in NYC, an estimated 11% of people had an active COVID infection! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KevinQ: New in today's Upshot, we contextualize the large shift in voters' attitudes about Black Lives Matter. In the span of a couple… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sfrostenson: Many of these polls (although not all) were conducted in the days after George Floyd was killed by police. You'll note tha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @daveweigel: This NY Post column, which argued that the PA results showed lagging Dem enthusiasm, was premised on initial numbers that d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tuesdays have historically featured high death counts, so it reflects progress to see a Tuesday with deaths below 1,000. Also a decent decline in cases from last Tuesday. The numbers have been a real mixed bag lately, so we'll see if this holds. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 941 Yesterday: 640 One week ago (6/2): 1,168 Newly reported cases T: 18K Y: 16K 6/2: 24K Newly reported tests T: 433K Y: 380K 6/2: 420K Positive test rate T: 4.2% Y: 4.3% 6/2: 5.6% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: A related lesson, for me, is that Trump should be treated like an ordinary candidate for electoral-analysis purposes. He was… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure I entirely trust polls this early showing Democrats running competitive Senate races in deeply red states. There tends to be a lot of reversion toward the partisan mean. Still, the GOP seems to have pretty bad problems. https://t.co/Se0HiYBvAx https://t.co/TQMZzTkOga — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

South Africa is another country where lockdowns are being lifted even as conditions are getting worse. Quite a few of these now. (Arguably also true for some US states, though not the country overall.) https://t.co/Lbh0XHo8jB https://t.co/vu6ndMgbyb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattZeitlin: every story about campaign strategy is like "they need solid turnout from their base and to reach out to swing voters," it… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryanmatsumoto1 I'd prefer the poll were a couple of days later. But there were also a lot of stories along these lines during the survey period. https://t.co/9Duw6CLR0G https://t.co/pEIzawdlPo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, we've gone from 87% (!) of Republicans having a good/great deal of trust in medical experts in April to 35% (!) now. Also a decline (88% to 66%) among independents, though smaller. Not as much decline (99% to 91%) among Democrats. https://t.co/lnExdAl9CT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if you're a public health expert and didn't recognize that mixed messaging around the protests had the potential to erode GOP and independent support for distancing—even though the protests themselves are quite popular!—this data ought to be a bit sobering. — PolitiTweet.org