Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know, it seems like people in the polling world are mostly being pretty careful⁠—reminding folks that it's June, there's the Electoral College, there's uncertainty etc.⁠—and nobody is implying that a landslide is a forgone conclusion (although, it's one possibility). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a really great book by @mkonnikova! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are some meaningful differences in the age distribution of coronavirus cases. In NYC, 24% of known cases are among people 65+, while in Texas, it's 16%. And in NYC, 12% of cases are among people 75+, versus 7% in Texas. https://t.co/rcT8Rqbu1Q https://t.co/YDADL9ahQ0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Can we tell which states will be swing states in November? https://t.co/9iMthduObU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo Not sure there's a natural comparison. Seems like it's had a very long plateau of R~=1 whereas everywhere else in the world has had some peaks and valleys. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be worth noting that countries which are both (i) large geographically and (ii) reasonably populous (so lots of distinct metros/regions) have generally had problems containing the spread. The US, Russia, Brazil and India all apply here. Not sure how you categorize China. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've started to think of the U.S. as 2-3 countries as far as COVID goes. The Northeast looks like Spain/Italy (steep peak/decline). The South looks like Brazil or Russia where things didn't start out badly but have simmered. The Midwest looks like Canada: lots of local hotspots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another day of mixed indicators. Deaths are down week-over-week. Tuesdays are typically heavy days for reporting deaths, so this is welcome news. But, cases are up. And this is one of the higher positive test rates in recent days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 713 Yesterday: 375 One week ago (6/9): 902 Newly reported cases T: 23K Y: 19K 6/9: 17K Newly reported tests T: 465K Y: 449K 6/9: 416K Positive test rate T: 5.1% Y: 4.1% 6/9: 4.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: Some thoughts: - It's still too early to measure the duration and frequency of long-term complications for a new virus, b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, Florida (which has moved into the tipping-point position for now) is highly relevant. If you win in Florida as a Democrat, you can lose in a LOT of other places and still win the Electoral College. https://t.co/uLQgwAOPzw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of these states are really lacking in polling, though. Minnesota and Maine have just one poll each. Nevada has just one poll since February. And not sure I buy the Michigan number for Biden. Polls always an adventure there. But also not a lot of high-quality polls in PA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As in the case of our primary model, states with stale polling are updated based on the trend in national polls and in polls of similar states. Just trying to give folks a flavor for how all of this will work once we officially launch our averages (soon). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Updated polling averages: National: Biden +8.4* CO: Biden +16.3 ME: B +13.1 NM: B +12.9* MI: B +10.3* VA: B +10.1 NV: B +7.4 NH: B +7.2 WI: B +6.5 MN: B +6.1 FL: B +6.0* PA: B +4.4 AZ: B +4.2* NC: B +2.5 OH: B +2.2 GA: B +0.1 IA: Trump +1.0* TX: T +1.2 * State has new polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: Black people are still as cautious about reopening the economy as they were in March. It's white people who have gotten more… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not to say you can't find anything on these. You can read the preprints. And some people without domain knowledge (i.e. economists) seem happy to discuss them. But I have no idea what the *expert consensus* is, in a way I felt like I did know on most Q's back in March/April. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some Q's I have: —How many people suffer from long-term complications? —Is the IFR declining, and if so why? —How much of the population is susceptible to COVID-19? Is there cross-immunity from other coronaviruses? —How much do heterogeneities affect the herd immunity threshold? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I find frustrating is everyone's so interested in debating the politics of COVID that there's less and less public discussion of relevant epidemiological parameters, including/especially by people who are in a position to speak authoritatively about them (i.e. not me). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanmatsumoto1: Overall, polling averages are pretty consistent with each states' 2016 partisan lean. Only 4 of 17 swing states have a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good pod today IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@johnhollinger Yeah. I think they're leaving money on the table if they don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cases are rising faster than tests in a number of mostly Southern and Western states. Not good. And there are various questions about what will happen in the future as social distancing decreases further. But the declining death tolls are positive and important news, for now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There continues to be this ebb-and-flow where people alternatively become too optimistic or too pessimistic in ways that are somewhat detached from the data. Certainly, the death numbers have been better, lately. 7-day average now at ~700, down from ~2,000 at the peak. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 375 Yesterday: 358 One week ago (6/8): 655 Newly reported cases T: 19K Y: 21K 6/8: 17K Newly reported tests T: 449K Y: 485K 6/8: 400K Positive test rate T: 4.1% Y: 4.4% 6/8: 4.3% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mkonnikova: My new book is out next week! Here's a little sneak preview, from @FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/Zhj1WNTmUw https://t.co/zy… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus one can imagine the NBA pushing its season back by 4-6 weeks (i.e. starts in early December and ends in late July). The NFL is adding another regular season game. MLS is a serious rival as a summer sport in an increasing number of markets. The exclusive window is going away. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is... not a great trendline for baseball. https://t.co/zb6qQMUOGn https://t.co/kptH0bXwBc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson It's all pretty complicated, of course. Religious beliefs, religious attendance and religious identity (e.g. there are lots of people who identify as Jewish but would also call themselves atheist/agnostic) may all have slightly different effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @HeerJeet: @NateSilver538 An underrated aspect of Trump's success is he was able to appeal to secular whites (esp. non-college) who like… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a somewhat related aside, it seems like there's been a shift away from coverage of how religious beliefs shape political views and vice versa. Religion is still very high on the list in the factors that best predict political behavior. — PolitiTweet.org