Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just a warning, "what are the chances of nuclear war?" (stemming from the Ukraine conflict) is a rabbit hole you may or may not want to go down, because it will probably occupy a lot of your brain space once you do. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot https://t.co/mWZgOpFwBb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are our receipts. And, yes, the impact is probably smaller now than it has been historically because of higher partisanship. But Walker is already (slightly) down in his race and even a couple of further points of erosion makes it a very uphill climb. https://t.co/AOOCEoWz9M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, "most candidates who have scandals survive" is a bad heuristic because most Congressional races aren't competitive. If you look at the margins they tend to make a difference, based on 538's research and others. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 How people identify is relevant though *especially* if they're going out to hang out in their communities and not necessarily to hook up. So the fact that sexual and gender identity tends to be more fluid in the LBTQ than in the G part of the LGBTQ spectrum is relevant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Keep in mind that the LGBTQ-identifying population has increased a lot. Semi-informed answer: —Lots of gay-specific bars, though likely a decline from ~15 years ago. —Steeper decline in lesbian-specific bars. —Big increase in mixed/ambiguous bars where many patrons are LGBTQ. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's honestly kind of an elitist attitude among other things. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@helaineolen Yeah, long COVID is concerning, but so is long lockdown. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The conventional wisdom has sort of over-adjusted toward LOL, nothing matters. A few points on the margin in a close race makes a big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile @Popehat Yeah, that's probably right. Fairly clear that candidate quality factors move vote share less than they used to, but that doesn't necessarily mean they move win percentages less. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Popehat Generally think that's wrong. Empirically, scandals matter, probably less than they used to, but this is a very close race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What tend to worry you more? a) risks that are at least partly preventable* b) risks that you can do essentially nothing about * The prevention may not be fully effective and may not be "worth it". But you can reduce the risk by making financial, lifestyle or other tradeoffs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen They should just do some big regression analysis to make students ~indifferent toward grade inflation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 @thinkingpoker I mean, yeah. The extremely lassiez-faire attitude of the poker community toward... many things is not without its merits, but I think it would be +EV for nearly everyone for operators to be more hawkish about game integrity issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 @thinkingpoker (Although, I do think examining her other hands is fruitful and glad you guys have started to do that.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 @thinkingpoker I certainly hope livestream operators will not ignore this issue going forward. I guess I'm just saying on the Robbi-GA hand we've reached the point of diminishing returns in terms of how much the community is going to be able to conclude in the absence of a formal investigation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 @thinkingpoker Are we truly getting a transparent investigation, though? This doesn't sound particularly independent, nor is the potential use of polygraph testing (on poker players of all people!) something that builds confidence. https://t.co/t7WwxEISO0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KonstantinKisin: I've tried to explain to people in the West what is actually happening in Russia but seeing is believing. This is fro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateMeyvis Yeah, playing a decent amount of live poker over the past 1.5 years, I can think of 2 prominent instances of a player misreading their hand. It happens, and "prominent" is doing a lot of work there, but it's not an "every time you set foot in the poker room" order of magnitude. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@electricalWSOP Yeah, if you're going to equip someone to cheat, you'd probably prefer it to be someone slightly more competent at poker. That spot vs. Garrett is kind of the nut low in terms of being pretty thin EV wise but having a high risk of arousing suspicion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@scott_seiver Well there goes my day going to listen to 27 podcasts on this like I did for the poker and chess scandals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel I guess it's hard being a subject-matter expert suddenly thrust into the public spotlight. But a decent number of the public health accounts have been pretty toxic themselves. Not the majority, most have been great, but a vocal minority, more than I'd have expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel I guess it's hard being a subject-matter expert suddenly thrust into the public spotlight. But a decent number of the public health accounts have been pretty toxic themselves. Not the majority, most of have been great, but a vocal minority, more than I'd have expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With a bonus discussion on whether I give any weight to what I call the Predictable Democratic Polling Bias (PDPB) hypothesis. https://t.co/i9sceHaCZt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've presented the bullish case for Democratic midterm prospects a couple of times recently—so here's the bear case. https://t.co/evy0bHLRe1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AlexSamuelsx5: NEW: For @FiveThirtyEight, @elena___mejia and I researched how Black Americans are transforming Georgia’s electorate. We… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Really fun playing with you Adam and congratulations, you played great and I was just trying to make you earn it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Made the final table so had to extend my Vegas trip by a day! Tough lineup but should be a fun one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of you need better imaginations! https://t.co/ubmu98M2x8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It wouldn't be surprising to see a GOP rebound in the polls. But it isn't evident yet and claims to the contrary are mostly just confirmation bias. https://t.co/Yyh7hxkoky — PolitiTweet.org