Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 8, 2022

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Tue Oct 04 12:52:07 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 How people identify is relevant though *especially* if they're going out to hang out in their communities and not necessarily to hook up. So the fact that sexual and gender identity tends to be more fluid in the LBTQ than in the G part of the LGBTQ spectrum is relevant. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Keep in mind that the LGBTQ-identifying population has increased a lot. Semi-informed answer: —Lots of gay-specific bars, though likely a decline from ~15 years ago. —Steeper decline in lesbian-specific bars. —Big increase in mixed/ambiguous bars where many patrons are LGBTQ. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, "most candidates who have scandals survive" is a bad heuristic because most Congressional races aren't competitive. If you look at the margins they tend to make a difference, based on 538's research and others. — PolitiTweet.org

.@PunchbowlNews brings up DesJarlais as a reason why Walker may not be sunk by his abortion scandal. Except DesJarl… https://t.co/XdeqDbhpfo

Posted Oct. 4, 2022