Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks, some states have lags in reporting negative tests. They'll report positive tests fairly quickly, and then negative tests after a further lag. This is common in many states. That's what's happening here. The positive test rate in OK isn't 100%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Redistrict: I've seen enough: Lauren Boebert (R) has defeated Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the #CO03 primary. Tipton becomes the fifth Hous… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of us armchair epidemiologists have been wondering about the effects of air conditioning, so it's good to see it get taken more seriously! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@2AvSagas @Neoavatara I'm just hoping for better northbound bike lanes in Manhattan by the time I have to start going back to the office. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@2AvSagas @Neoavatara I *do* think people underrate the importance of duration of exposure. Agree with you there. But I think it's appropriate to have priors that this is one of the harder issues for NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@2AvSagas @Neoavatara Some of the studies about the NYC subway in particular are bullshit but I think we know from other research that tightly-packed indoor spaces with poor air circulation are risky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara The subway is unambiguously an issue. My guess is a lot of NYC employers will be cautious in calling people back to work for that reason. I do think though that masks can offset a lot of the casual contact that you get more of in NYC than in other places. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I think NYC/NJ/CT may be in a slightly different bucket. ~20-25% seropositivity + lotsa masks might get you pretty far. We'll see. But NYC'ers have gotten pretty creative about using outdoor space and I worry about ~November when things start moving indoors again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I think there's a decent amount of uncertainty both as to how high immunity is in these states and where the herd immunity threshold is. https://t.co/2YOsC0idji — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I think it's pretty uncertain. There haven't been many places anywhere in the world that have truly had second waves yet. And high levels of immunity in these states could have a dampening effect. They need to be careful, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd still expect density to be important, perhaps espeically on terms of having a high ceiling for R when no one is taking precautions (e.g. masks). But maybe it's medium-important and not super important. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In light of the latest evidence I wonder if we need to re-evaluate how much density contributes to spread. COVID is now spreading in a lot of medium-density places. And NYC's problems may have had to do in part with multiple, early introductions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Hospitalizations are increasing less rapidly than cases, which seems good, although states are inconsistent in how they report them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another issue is that (despite the record number of tests today) there is much more demand for testing in some of the worst-affected states, creating shortages and bottlenecks. That may make it harder to identify the slope of the curve, when there's a peak, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, I would caution against short term prediction. Once cases start going up and making a lot of news, people may become more cautious. And once they start going down, people may become more complacent. There are lags, of course. But there can be a see-saw effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tuesdays have a track record of being really heavy reporting days. But this one is more mixed. Deaths down again week over week (again, not sure how long I'd expect that to continue). We nearly set a record for new cases, though, although we also set a record for tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 575 Yesterday: 332 One week ago (6/23): 703 Newly reported cases T: 44k Y: 36k 6/23: 33k Newly reported tests T: 649k* Y: 569k 6/23: 501k Positive test rate T: 6.8% Y: 6.4% 6/23: 6.6% * record — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. I do think the time frame is important here. It's possible that a vaccine will be ready in 6 months. But, it won't be distributed instantly, some people may not take it, and it may not be 100% effective. So there could be a sort of thawing period. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People need to be asking these questions more explicitly. What's the next 6-12 months look like in a way that's sustainable (i.e. has enough buy-in from people that there will be reasonably high compliance)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing I'd note too is that Trump's slide is pretty universal between online polls and traditional polls of varying quality and methodology. There's really not much for him to hang his hat on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump disapproval rating now the highest since Dec. 2017. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/RgPYW6qKFv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek Yeah, wish there was more discussion. Some of the new literature seems to suggest some people can fight off COVID through T-cells (perhaps from other coronaviruses) without necessarily generating much of an antibody response; thus, antibody studies may underestimate prevalence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not gonna get too far out over my skis and do an explainer thread. But if you (like me) obsessively read the literature on matters related to immunity and how this relates to various weirdness in the COVID-19 data, these may help to tie a few things together. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These threads describing recent research on the role of T-cells (as opposed to antibodies) in fighting COVID-19 are interesting. https://t.co/xgybenz5yf https://t.co/mFVeIziksu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Telling people to wear masks might be the single thing Trump could do to most improve his re-election prospects. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: If Texas is competitive, Trump has problems. On today's pod, we discuss the slew of new, high quality battleground polls t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, if you look at Google searches for COVID symptoms in some of the hotspots, they're starting to level off a bit after having risen for the past few weeks. But even if people are now being more careful, cases may continue rising based on what was happening 2-3 weeks ago. https://t.co/gPKPGF6i3O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not a clear story in this report. Deaths up from a week ago, but still fairly low. But reporting on deaths is usually slow on Mondays. Cases and the positive test rate down from the past few days, but up from a week ago. And Mondays can be a bit funky for case reporting, also. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 332 Yesterday: 273 One week ago (6/22): 282 Newly reported cases T: 36K Y: 42K 6/22: 27K Newly reported tests T: 569K Y: 586K 6/22: 465K Positive test rate T: 6.4% Y: 7.2% 6/22: 5.8% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DLeonhardt Partly because it didn't get hit as hard before as most of these states (so a higher % of the population is susceptible), and partly because of climate (hot in parts of the state likely forcing people indoors). — PolitiTweet.org