Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

YouGov with before-and-polls taken just before and after the president's COVID diagnosis was announced shows Biden +8 among likely voters in both samples. https://t.co/tcMxJYVZbw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Redistrict: Unsolicited advice to pollsters waiting for major news events to "settle down" before going into the field: it is what it i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can always import cases from outside the community. And you can always have sub-communities that either have a higher R0, or that have lower levels of immunity than the communitywide average. So you could have spread within those sub-communities but not so much beyond them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Without wanting to get into the "where is the herd immunity threshold?" debate (I tend to doubt NYC is there yet), it seems one manifestation of an area that was near the threshold is not necessarily that it wouldn't have outbreaks, but that the outbreaks would peter out quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm seeing a lot of "the second wave is coming!" takes and maybe it is, especially with colder weather. But **so far** the numbers in NYC/NYS are modestly encouraging, as they've tended to be flat after an initial increase. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kakape: So Trump is now also receiving dexamethasone. @WHO guidelines very clear that it is to be used only “in patients with severe an… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other problem with the White House (and Trump's doctors!) trying to put a positive spin on Trump's condition is the election is in 30 days, and a 74-year-old hospitalized patient is likely to have some persistent symptoms for weeks after discharge. https://t.co/n2FwQL2aWv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. That, plus the news that the president has started on dexamethasone, is hard to square with the picture Conley was trying to paint of his condition improving, especially since it's well known that COVID can take a see-saw trajectory. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden leads in national polls since the debate; it's quite a weird distribution. +14 +13 +10 +10 +9 +7 +3 +2 https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BallouxFrancois: "There is no getting 'back to normal,' experts say. The sooner we accept that, the better" This is possibly the most… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NBC/WSJ polls typically come in very close to national averages, so notable for them to show Biden with a 14 point lead. Post-debate, pre-Covid. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I make fun of political betting markets a lot but one moderately amusing thing is that they somehow think that Hillary Clinton is the 3rd-most-likely person to become the next president rather than Mike Pence or Kamala Harris. https://t.co/qpmkmPY6Y5 https://t.co/YDggcJ1FO5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner @LPDonovan @chrislhayes Isaac. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot of bad stuff happening but one small good thing is that there's a LOT of high-quality polling this year. Much credit to folks who are conducting the polls or paying for them. But, any one poll generally doesn't make that much difference in our averages or forecasts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW we've updated our polling averages to reflect the corrected version of the USC poll and it doesn't make much difference.... Biden +7.4 nationally vs +7.3 before. https://t.co/cy51vbNH49 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @politico: Since last Saturday's Rose Garden SCOTUS announcement, these people have tested positive for Covid-19: • President Trump • M… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And while the president, having access to the best medical care available, might go to the hospital out of an abundance of caution when a regular citizen might not, reporting suggests he generally tries to avoid hospitals. https://t.co/y0lVLRUBtv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most COVID cases do not result in hospitalization. Only something like 10% of confirmed cases and 2% of all infections do, in fact. (Keep in mind that many infections are never officially detected.) So that suggests something about his condition. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What we *know* is that the president is in the hospital, that he's receiving a regime of experimental treatments, and that we aren't seeing or hearing from him all that much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: USC updated its tracker--fixing a technical error--and now shows Biden gaining, rather than steadily losing his lead. He's u… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggieNYT: A key thing Conley said is that the course the virus is taking in the president will reach a critical period where it become… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggieNYT: For his entire life, the president has been phobic about illness and extremely wary of hospitals, according to people who kn… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggieNYT: Conley has now jeopardized his own ability to be believed by the public. It is in part because he is adhering to the wishes… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, apparently a lot of people got infected at an event last Saturday. I understand that it takes a few days to test positive after infection. But, was everyone testing negative until Thursday/Friday, when suddenly there's a rash of positive tests? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RyanLizza: It was Mark Meadows. https://t.co/L3YuRn9tck — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We also have a Trump +5 in a post-debate poll of Missouri, versus Trump +8 in a mid-September poll by the same firm. Overall, the post-debate polls aren't spectacularly different, but I'd say a bit stronger for Biden than the pre-debate polls. https://t.co/zjj1micDVC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A +7 for Biden in PA and a +5 in FL are good results for him, although Times/Siena has shown good numbers for Biden in those states for Biden previously (+9 in PA in September; +6 in FL among registered voters in June). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pvolpe @taraparkerpope It's a great story and beautifully presented. Have a good night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pvolpe @taraparkerpope That happens like 5,000 times a day, I'd guess? It seems like it's a late night\and you didn't initially notice that I linked to your story in the first tweet in the thread and we should just move on. Love your team's work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pvolpe People post our graphics without any attribution at all, all the time. Usually without referencing our story in the first tweet in a thread, which is pretty reasonable attribution IMO. Y'all might want to add a watermark to your visuals, though. — PolitiTweet.org