Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Oct 04 16:52:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Without wanting to get into the "where is the herd immunity threshold?" debate (I tend to doubt NYC is there yet), it seems one manifestation of an area that was near the threshold is not necessarily that it wouldn't have outbreaks, but that the outbreaks would peter out quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm seeing a lot of "the second wave is coming!" takes and maybe it is, especially with colder weather. But **so far** the numbers in NYC/NYS are modestly encouraging, as they've tended to be flat after an initial increase. — PolitiTweet.org

Gov. Cuomo conference call this AM: -110,000 test results -4.8% positivity rate for COVID in "hotspot" zip codes… https://t.co/WaBhGeCANg

Posted Oct. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can always import cases from outside the community. And you can always have sub-communities that either have a higher R0, or that have lower levels of immunity than the communitywide average. So you could have spread within those sub-communities but not so much beyond them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2020 Hibernated