Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure quite what's left to count that Wasserman doesn't have yet. Much of the Westchester absentees, I believe, which should be quite blue. Maybe some provisionals in NY State, which can take a long while to count? And various bits and pieces elsewhere (IL, for instance?). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOL this is going to wind up being realllllly close https://t.co/JmpTe6HpRq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@umichvoter99 This is Lansing erasure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katienolan @williamfleitch @Medium Katie, You certainly have my empathy and appreciation. It's clear there's a wide spectrum of behaviors both IRL and on Twitter. I think the centers of the spectrums are a bit different. But I wished people talked about all of this more, including coping strategies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@williamfleitch @Medium Appreciated this, Will. It feels a lot more like the conversations I'm having with my IRL friends, where nobody's partying like it's 2019, but it's also not going to be healthy to just sit at home for a year, so everybody's always making these complicated calculations about risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More data on this from Google. A modest increase in visits to residences over the Thanksgiving holiday, but a big decline in visits to workplaces. There are some blind spots on this platform because most journalists/elites can work from home whereas most regular people can't. https://t.co/YY13XzAQgq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also data here on how many people saw people at their households/had people over in the past 7 days. A slight increase (to ~45%) over the past week vs. a week ago, but 45% is fairly typical over the long run. Also a slight decline in gathering at bars. https://t.co/BT47Wv58QC https://t.co/JHm6YWeTMN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah, the travel (although that *should* show up in the mobility data?) and the intergenerational mixing would seem like reasons for concern. In the other direction, I suspect some people who ordinarily are seeing people outside their household were being more careful than usual. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why? * Some people stayed home. * Some businesses that are normally open were closed for the holiday. * Many people see friends and family anyway during a typical week—so a Thanksgiving where some people see friends/family and some don't is not so different than the baseline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Everybody is understandably concerned about COVID spikes caused by Thanksgiving but if you look at mobility data, there was really no increase vs. previous weeks; arguably a decrease depending on how you squint at the data, in fact. https://t.co/m1gOxoNtX2 https://t.co/OfC0D1YPXb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom Like, I took some phone photos during a blackout in NYC last year where the colors were surreal and alien (not in an especially pretty way, either) and didn't at all resemble what you saw with the naked eye. It clearly didn't seem to know what to do under those conditions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom My lay understanding: I don't know about proper digital cameras, but I think a lot of phone cameras have algorithms that are designed to really draw out color to produce Instagram-worthy pictures, and they can go sort of haywire in low or unusual light. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'd think some will but that's just a lot dicier. Maybe they should play games outdoors. Nets and Knicks can play at Arthur Ashe Stadium. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen So the context would be: the numbers are likely improving, a significant portion of the high-risk population has been vaccinated, and people are tired of restrictions after a rough winter. I think it may be hard to sustain momentum to keep stuff closed, especially outdoor stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen By April you may not have a ton of vaccines ready for the general population, but it's not crazy to think ~20% of the population will have been vaccinated, plus perhaps a roughly equal fraction will have antibodies from a COVID case. That + spring weather could curb spread a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Well, this might spoil the survey, but I think people are maybe missing low here. ~Half of NFL teams allow fans—through a very bad phase of the pandemic—although they're a bit more concentrated in red states than baseball teams and some of those are <20% capacity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not really a question about baseball but about the pandemic; I'm just curious about what people's expectations are for what the spring will look like. How many MLB teams will allow fans in their stadiums at at least 20% capacity on Opening Day (~April 1)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some states/countries were better than others, but in general the quality of COVID data in the winter and spring was very poor. Even now, there's a lot of ambiguity because many (probably still most) infections are never confirmed with a positive test. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of this is underwhelming—3,456 vs. 2,986 isn't "the starkest [of] discrepancies"—and seems to fall into the category of things that many countries (not just China) were doing, especially early in the pandemic. https://t.co/n9OGwcav6d https://t.co/tm2i2xwQdh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of all the dumb claims in dumb threads like these, there's always some point at which the dumbass discovers that Democrats win high-population urban counties by big margins but chalks it up to "statistical abnormalities" rather than "Philadelphia reported its votes". https://t.co/xYrZou1NA8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ne0liberal: PredictIt right now https://t.co/WuuYCrWQRr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Important to note though that "the suburbs put Biden over the top" isn't the same as saying "college-educated white voters put Biden over the top". A lot of the key suburban counties are pretty racially mixed. Not in Wisconsin I guess but certainly in Georgia, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is just plain as day. The suburbs, especially high-education suburbs, are where Biden really outperformed Clinton, in a way that was likely pretty decisive in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: .@NateSilver538: “Those suburban votes were key to putting Joe Biden over the top in the Electoral College.” https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, important to distinguish between the theory that the pandemic cost Trump the election (maybe not) vs. that incompetent handling of the pandemic cost him the election (maybe so). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

SOLD OUT OF HAMILTON https://t.co/DnYvaw2oeP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @BenjySarlin idk I think normie Dems also recognize that just getting Trump out of office is a hugely consequential event and that take has been significantly underweighted in the punditry about the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I've noticed too is my real life Democratic friends are happy that Biden won and aren't obsessed with the question of how did Trump beat the point spread or got sorta-kinda-close. It's a more grounded perspective than you get on here or on the op-ed pages. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How Did the Atlanta Falcons Score 28 Points? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's what I'm left wondering: Why Did Even More Americans Vote for Biden? https://t.co/grW4k1bXGX — PolitiTweet.org