Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 18, 2020

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Tue Dec 01 02:16:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen By April you may not have a ton of vaccines ready for the general population, but it's not crazy to think ~20% of the population will have been vaccinated, plus perhaps a roughly equal fraction will have antibodies from a COVID case. That + spring weather could curb spread a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 1, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Well, this might spoil the survey, but I think people are maybe missing low here. ~Half of NFL teams allow fans—through a very bad phase of the pandemic—although they're a bit more concentrated in red states than baseball teams and some of those are <20% capacity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 1, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen So the context would be: the numbers are likely improving, a significant portion of the high-risk population has been vaccinated, and people are tired of restrictions after a rough winter. I think it may be hard to sustain momentum to keep stuff closed, especially outdoor stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 1, 2020