Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What percentage? There's some uncertainty there and estimates vary. @youyanggu estimates that 10-25% of Americans had gotten COVID as of late November: https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 Scott Gottlieb thinks it could be as much as 30% by year-end. https://t.co/DrLHqFPKc6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Discussions of how many people need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity often omit that the pandemic has been really awful in the US and it's not a pleasant thing to discuss, but a decent minority of the population has naturally-acquired immunity. https://t.co/pCJIeJBkcE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It's very rare that someone is interested in a constructive conversation once they've played the credentialism card. (Especially given that, in theory, a journalist who has spent many years writing about public policy should indeed have some domain knowledge here.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Instead, especially in that New Hampshire/Nevada period where Sanders seemed to be on a really good trajectory, he was thumbing his nose at the establishment rather than building bridges. Here's some reporting I did at the time. https://t.co/Ru5vZGhlLy https://t.co/zds97z5CDy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are ... a lot ... of issues with this story ... but one thing it gets completely wrong is the notion that Sanders was trying to appease the Democratic establishment more so than in 2016. He was pointedly not doing that. https://t.co/4HVaJpCryz https://t.co/rpApSR53m9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. I'm not advocating for any particular "side" in the lockdown debate, though I think a short-term, circuit-breaker lockdown right now would be highly worthwhile. But as someone who lives here, NYC/NYS have taken a fairly moderate, pragmatic approach as compared with say CA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1) FL's true number of infections is likely ~50% higher than NY right now once you adjust for the amount of testing: https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 2) NY is not mostly closed. Schools (re)open, gyms open, indoor dining at 25-50% capacity (+ creative interpretations of "outdoor" dining) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@briankoppelman The thing people don't account for enough is the rate of COVID spread in their area. Indoor tennis with one person is gonna be relatively dangerous in North Dakota, but relatively safe in NYC (for now, but monitor as caseloads rise). https://t.co/m9TYnTDXUG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JosephRFriedman: New evidence that COVID-19 may be drastically exacerbating the US opioid crisis: "Overdose-Related Cardiac Arrests Ob… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's true that for issue polls, you don't have to model turnout, which is one fewer complication. But : 1—It's not clear turnout modeling is a big source of recent poll error 2—Issue polls have challenges election polls *don't* have, e.g. question wording is much more important — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, it's the pollsters who do election polls who put their necks on the line. So I have little patience for polling firms that *don't* do election polling saying that somehow the problems that affect election polling don't affect their polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp There's also an argument (I'm not 100% sure I buy it) that shorter polls that focus on horse-race questions are going to have fewer problems with low-trust voters than longer ones that ask dozens of questions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think polling is broken. But I also don't buy this *at all*. If election polling isn't accurate, there's no reason to think public opinion/issue polling is any better. At least with election polling you have a way to validate the results. https://t.co/jjZukaCiAR https://t.co/PeYaceQOt3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not that I had a particularly high opinion of it before, but the irrational and not-very-science-driven regime of COVID policies in California, coupled with the hypocrisy of so many elected officials there, has really lowered my opinion of the quality of governance in that state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This poll implies a drop-off in Republican turnout. It has Biden +4 among the likely voter electorate for the runoff, when Biden actually won by <1. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @espiers: This lady is basically Cecily Strong's Girl You Wish You Hadn't Started A Conversation With At A Party https://t.co/pfzM8FpOnw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Kansas (Trump +14.7) now less red than Missouri (Trump +15.4) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ashishkjha: Agree and have been saying as much By end of January, 50M Americans might be vaccinated Population immunity should be ove… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Laurie_Garrett I'm a fan and it's not a big deal but I didn't mean to imply it was new ("AGAIN starting to see"). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes There are definitely some confounders and other idiosyncrasies. But, I don't know. I think a lot of it comes down to who can work from home and who can't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like we're again starting to see a big rich-poor gap in COVID spread in New York City. Wealthy parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn have fairly low positivity rates. Other parts of the city are struggling more. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/PTIqIYKzF8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@aaronecarroll Yeah.... I think in a perfectly rational world, people with a previous infection (especially a relatively recent previous infection) would be lower in the queue. But also worry if you create too many layers/rules/exceptions, you could also wind up with less efficiency overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I was wondering this too, and saw in the NYT today that it was suggested people who had already had COVID might not get early access. But haven't seen it discussed elsewhere and imagine it could become a thorny issue. https://t.co/Eqig4BhOgP https://t.co/KNApzP0rqt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think people, if anything, *aren't optimistic enough* about how quickly vaccines could improve things by early-mid spring—although that's probably an argument for maintaining more restrictions for the time being. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @SeanTrende @ReubenR80027912 Also once we've vaccinated older and vulnerable people, death totals should fall a LOT even if there is still some spread. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Listen with the sound on and this bridge sounds like some foreboding alien spacecraft in a sci-fi movie. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm There's a lot of stuff though that is probably narrowly rational but may not be collectively so because of the risk of community transmission. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Really bad. California has had the strictest regulations throughout the lockdown, often keeping schools and outdoor stuff closed in a way that hasn't been particularly science-driven, and they've been undermined by Newsom and now Breed in a public, ostentatious way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Redistrict: In my view, what's remaining in Suffolk/Westchester etc. will easily be enough to push Biden over 7 million. https://t.co/D… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if you're interested in big round milestones, my guess is there's probably just enough out there for Biden to get to >7.0 million and >4.5% (meaning his lead rounds up to 5 points rather than 4) but we'll see. — PolitiTweet.org