Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In non-vaccine news, our Joe Biden approval tracker is up! So far he's at 54% approve and 35% disapprove. https://t.co/n2XzvOgs0J https://t.co/v4Z8sJ6wbG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The US and EU have plenty of other vaccines under contract so one understands why they might want to be conservative about AstraZeneca, especially if Johnson & Johnson comes online soon. But other parts of the world are relying heavily on AstraZeneca. https://t.co/UQ9784SGlb https://t.co/6rxXij4t5p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why was AstraZeneca so slow to recruit older people for its trials? Seems like a dumb strategy for a pandemic that is much deadlier among older people. (More context at this link: https://t.co/R0PNv2w6Gf) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not surprising if you think about it, but so far there's been something of an inverse correlation between how effective countries were at combatting COVID-19 and how fast they've been to roll out vaccines. https://t.co/MrxIwfTQKc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What irks me is that, when you tell people not to change behavior after an intervention (vaccinations) that reduces their risk of symptomatic COVID by 20x, it implies physical isolation from others is nearly cost-free—when people are struggling & long-term consequences are scary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is good. https://t.co/54OC0wAIFk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that Moderna is investigating the effects of an *additional* booster shot in case needed against new variants. So it's possible that we'll eventually wind up with people getting 3 doses of mRNA vaccines. https://t.co/HxQPf1bNtQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Important additional context; J&J being approved would still be a huge deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred For sure, but reaching that pace would allow us to put a huge dent in the pandemic by late spring or early summer. Maybe you hope for something like this: Feb: 1.5m/day Mar: 2.0m/day Apr: 2.5m/day May: 2.5m/day June: 2.5m/day July: 2.0m/day Then things slow down, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In practice it's going to be hard to find 300m Americans willing to get vaccinated by Sept. 22. (It's literally impossible until vaccines are approved for children.) And we'll probably eventually mix in some one-dose vaccines. Still, ramping up to 2-2.5m/day is a laudable goal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, this is a substantially more ambitious commitment so good for the Biden administration for moving beyond a prior goal of 1m doses/day. To vaccinate 300 million people (=600 million doses) by Sept. 22 (last day of summer) would require a pace of 2.4 million shots/day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Deleted previous tweet because I hadn't seen this; we're buying more Pfizer and Moderna so we don't necessarily need J&J to come through to cover 300 million people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, we have agreements to buy 200M doses of Moderna (enough for 100M people) and 200M of Pfizer (enough for another 100M). Does this means the WH expects Johnson & Johnson to be approved, which would get another 100M covered (though currently a 1-dose vaccine)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel Yeah. I think it's well-intentioned 99% of the time. But I also think the effects on public behavior may be hard to predict (e.g. downplaying the effectiveness of vaccines may encourage vaccine hesitancy). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel I think there's also a lot of ambiguity among public health experts between just giving people the best information possible and framing the information in a way that encourages people to be careful and that affects the way these stories are reported. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's often a lag between the data and people's mood. If this continues for a few weeks (decently likely IMO as vaccine uptake improves) it'll probably dawn on folks that the US situation is improving. Of course, optimism has mixed consequences (i.e. may make people too lax). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting chart: * Cases are probably declining faster than at any point in the pandemic. * We're now vaccinating more people (1st doses) than there are new infections. * However, caseloads are still VERY high (higher than at any point pre-November). https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 https://t.co/UU3F0B5Szq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart #JNJGuesses? 84%? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @FiveThirtyEight Yep. Within a few days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes That's the one thing we can guarantee, at least! It'll get warmer and stay bright longer and easier to do things outdoors. Never been so glued to the weather report. (Also, we should have permanent Daylight Saving Time.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes It really is a challenge that the news is very anxiety-inducing but a lot of the things that one might do to get a break from it are...also either ill-advised or anxiety-inducing during a pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Possibly bad idea: set up a federal 1-800 number where anyone can call and get help finding how to get a vaccine (if they're eligible). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 - The challenges Biden's agenda will face in Congress - How partisan polarization has evolved from "we disagr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So looks like the vaccine is 95%+ effective a week after the *second* dose based on a fairly large sample of data from Israel. Not entirely clear how they are collecting this data but obviously very encouraging. https://t.co/8eUUWFK18t https://t.co/6c8wEMMhRw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also the failure to consider incentives. In the long run, I worry a lot about vaccine hesitancy and telling people they can't change their behavior even once they get a vaccine is a disincentive for them to get vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd be happy to put teachers higher in the vaccine queue to keep schools open / re-open them sooner. To suggest that schools still won't be operating normally by August/September is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. https://t.co/0BFRDYaX7g https://t.co/oBEiCrGvQh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of these guys would be favorites against any Democrat in a midterm with a D president, but Jordan would give Democrats a much better opportunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In addition to these other reasons for optimism, one other small thing: Many parts of the US have now made it through the coldest part of the year. The coldest day in NYC on average is ~Jan. 17 for example. Outdoor activity will become easier before too much longer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Compared to other surveys, these are pretty good numbers for NYC. 57% in NYC want the vaccine right away ... that number has usually been about ~40% in national polls. Only 4% completely refuse as compared to ~15% in national polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sobering from @maggiekb1 and @ameliatd on the challenges facing our democracy. — PolitiTweet.org