Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other nice thing about a lottery is that you could easily conduct the lottery by e.g. zip code to help ensure a more equitable distribution without creating too many bottlenecks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lottery system would also avoid tech disasters like the one in DC this morning where everybody crashed the system trying to book appointments. https://t.co/lytG0rX7X6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are always confounders; notably, the UK has had a quite strict lockdown. Still, given that they've given ~30% of the population a first dose and almost NOBODY a second dose yet, this may put at least a tiny bit of empirical weight in the "first doses first works" bucket. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People point toward the (encouraging) Israel data a lot, but COVID deaths in the the UK are also now falling VERY quickly despite the presence of B.1.1.7. Their vax strategy has been 1) first does first and 2) use simple criteria that focus heavily on age. https://t.co/NnmjVlI6m8 https://t.co/CCw6jyxpPa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Siri, show me the place I'd least like to be during a respiratory pandemic. https://t.co/8vV3dGvWGs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

An encouragingly low 4.1% test positivity rate today. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Yeah, I'm convinced there's a lot of low-hanging fruit on testing given how big the disparities are from state to state. Rhode Island has conducted 2.8 tests per person (and NY has done 1.9 per person if you want a bigger state) as compared to just 0.4 in Kansas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb I came up with a new statistic called POINTS (Precisely-Optimized Innovative New Tremendous Statistic): 1 POINTS per successful free throw 2 POINTS per successful field goal 3 POINTS per successful 3-point attempt Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the career leader in POINTS (38,387). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A couple of counties are using a lottery system to distribute vaccines (among people in eligible categories), which seems like an improvement over who-can-click-on-the-appointment-the-fastest. https://t.co/dLQ5UmMFH7 https://t.co/LMRfteyESj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of me whether the White House nominated Tanden as sort of a lighting rod to create a low-stakes, high-drama controversy that gives people an outlet for dissention rather than over higher-stakes stuff like the stimulus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC's positivity rate calculation does not include antigen/rapid tests, whereas I believe that NYS's does, which may explain some of the difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York City's data reports a 7-day average COVID positivity rate of 7.15% in New York City, whereas New York State's data reports a 7-day average of 4.45% for New York City. That's a fairly big difference! https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/1w2VrzC4FG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With spring training underway, we published a very cool interactive tool today where you can compare Negro League players' stats against those from other major leagues. Go check it out! https://t.co/0LxOqDCPIO https://t.co/hhVXfhmQTu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kareem_carr Yeah that would have been super helpful! The UK does do a version of this and it's given them a lot of smart insights about e.g. the incidence of long COVID or how COVID is transmitted. https://t.co/2RPZZteWwC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden What I'm mostly skeptical about though is in the idea that there's some sort of nonlinear change in behavior, i.e. enough that R has just gone from 0.8 to 1.05 overnight. When you see that sort of thing, it's often a reporting artifact. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden The USC survey did show a slight uptick in "visited a bar, club, or other gathering place". I wish they'd included restaurants in that category because it's somewhat ambiguous otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While I've seen some (reasonable) speculation that people are starting to relax their behavior as COVID cases have declined, there's not much evidence of that yet in polling and mobility data. Maybe a slight uptick if you squint but not too much there. https://t.co/BT47WuNxZ4 https://t.co/X0Ry2wTx3u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @wiederkehra: MLB announced that the statistics of over 3,000 Negro Leagues players would be elevated to Major League status. Some of ba… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes No problem! I do think it's plausible that there have also been some behavioral changes or some issues with variants. But IMO I'd wait a week or so before coming to very many conclusions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes No meaning that severe weather (+ the holiday last Monday) prevented people from being tested and states from fully reporting data and now there's likely some catch-up from that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes It is likely weather-related at least in part, as you can see from the regional distribution of cases. https://t.co/ppNh5jfbs8 https://t.co/bg2J42abxN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: If you want to be a professional athlete in most sports, it helps to be born at the right time of year. https://t.co/X… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AlexSamuelsx5: This is my first week covering race and politics for @fivethirtyeight! Please say hi, or send tips, polls, contacts, pre… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BlakeMurphyODC: "Shoutout to 538, man, whatever that is" - VanVleet on advanced metrics being so high on him Also says he's gonna prot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan I think between the holiday and the weather conditions that there is not currently much reason for panic. Check back in a week tho. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois The rapid decline in COVID cases in California also seems like relevant context, especially given that the claim is not that the variant is a new threat but rather that it's already somewhat firmly established. https://t.co/1Ln0rCwvEy https://t.co/MSmLF5bYCX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good to see this data. If you look carefully at the various surveys on this, Black and Hispanic Americans express a fair amount of vaccine *hesitancy*, i.e. a wait-and-see approach, could be persuaded, etc. But the *hard* nos tend to be from white conservatives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 I think ‘we’ are doing better than even that. Positive rate continues to drop despite testing NOT at new highs… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My pet theory is there may be a bit more lockdown fatigue in NY than elsewhere. Unlike most of the country, which peaked in the fall/winter, our (awful) peak came last spring. So the memories are a bit more distant and feels like we've been in a holding pattern for a long time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The weird pattern over the past week or two looks like a blip related to winter storms reducing testing volume. Although it's also true that NY's numbers aren't declining *quite* as quickly as other places even once you smooth that out. — PolitiTweet.org