Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DukeStJournal @conorsen I kind of wonder what would happen if the White House had said something to the effect of "Just give us 30 days here. Then you can open up most stuff but keep mask mandates in place for a bit, please." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus It's more logical than the Census Bureau regions tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen 35 might be too low. It looks like ~45 states permit indoor dining statewide now and the other 5 do so in some counties? https://t.co/3umYWi2e3t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The sense that DeSantis's star is on the rise might be contributing to this among other GOP governors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems good! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron Right now, for instance, there are HUNDREDS of available appointments TOMORROW at basically any Walgreens in Midtown for anyone age 65+. How many people might be interested in one of these appointments but not aware of this? I don't know. But I assume a lot. https://t.co/lk6pVCRajn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron Yeah, I can only speak to the situation on the ground here. NY is doing some things well, including e.g. opening up some sites only for people in certain zip codes. But there are also big technology/awareness gaps in terms of navigating the system. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron I basically think this IS a targeted campaign. The fact is that in NYC/NYS, distribution isn't really restricted right now. The list of qualifying preconditions is fairly expansive and loosely enforced, and there are various workarounds (e.g. standing by for spare doses) anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe it's time to open up the vaccine to everyone in (largely poor, nonwhite) zip codes that have had low vaccine uptake so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden @carlzimmer The cartwheels that people will go through to try to justify the 76% number, instead of just acknowledging that a nonrandom sample may be pretty unreliable, has been something to watch. A good real-world example of where applying Occam's razor would help too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro He's sort of a cross between Biden (de facto "moderate" with a normie appeal that media elites don't get) and Trump (trolls media into constantly giving him attention in a multi-way race; has potential appeal to irregular voters). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AlexSamuelsx5: .@FiveThirtyEight let me make my debut (!!) writing about TX. Republicans’ handling of the storm probably won’t hurt th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@alexismadrigal Yeah, it wasn't like things were completely impassible for more than ~12 hours or so, but test volumes in the city look like they were maybe 25% below usual for a few days. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/ZkR0WLcUuu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@alexismadrigal New York had a pretty significant winter storm on the 17th through the 19th or thereabouts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The most rational *workable* policy at this point might be: Currently eligible people are still recommended to get 2 doses, which means Pfizer/Moderna until the J&J 2-dose trial is complete. Open up a 1-dose lane to everyone else now, with an option to get a 2nd dose later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To put it another way, while it's likely that even one dose of J&J is highly effective against the *most severe* outcomes (hospitalizations & deaths), that would likely also be true for one dose of Moderna or Pfizer. But the US isn't doing "first doses first" for Moderna/Pfizer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like the real issue is not really J&J vs. Pfizer/Moderna—they're all similarly effective—but that because of how the trials were conducted, people assigned to Pfizer/Moderna are entitled to get a 2nd shot whereas people assigned to J&J are not. https://t.co/ckNUIFqGiE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus Yeah, I'm very much talking about media elites (especially on social media) and not party elites (e.g. elected officials). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD I mean... I think it's also the case that most public health officials think of it is being their job to advocate for/nudge people to safer behaviors rather than to merely lay out the risks and let people make their own decisions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, in the US, there's probably enough of a latent capitalistic/libertarian ethos that *even in blue states*, the governors' default position is that the state should not interfere in private commerce (whereas *public* services like schools would be different). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, they probably think of public health officials as *always* wanting to keep *everything* closed without clear timelines. Now, the rationale is about new variants. I (Nate) think that + timing of vaccines is a good rationale! But governors may see this as moving goalposts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Two obvious points. First, governors don't think of public health officials as having balanced all equities and considered all costs/benefits. They think of them as one side of "the argument", advocating for a position, with business owners, "citizens", etc. on the other side. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I, too, wish states kept restrictions in place for another few weeks until we're more caught up on vaccinations etc. But I think it's worth thinking about why states (recently including lots of blue states/cities) are opening up despite the CDC and others encouraging them not to. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sorry if this is a bit random, but the fact that Biden easily won the Democratic primary despite having little support from blue-checkmark liberal elites is something that ought to have been a pretty big wake-up call but doesn't seem to have been. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to figure out what's going on but I suppose I remain mostly unpersuaded that we're seeing some sort of a rebound in US COVID cases. Hospitalizations keep falling and the positive test rate has been at ~4% for several days in a row now. But, worth being nervous/cautious. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @conorsen @Cmpttnlly Since J&J is also conducting a 2-dose trial, my guess is that the CDC will eventually say you can go back and get a second dose if you want one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah. And also liberals are supposed to care more about urban amenities that tend to be the first things that get closed during lockdowns. And they're supposed to care more about inequality, which—complicated debate here—but lockdowns probably exacerbate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Another way to put it is basically that I thought that all of the country would react like red states did. Lock down for a month or two, take some half-assed measures thereafter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'm kind of in the same bucket. I was worried about the virus to the point of annoying friends/etc. But I didn't think that people would tolerate so many disruptions to everyday life for longer than, say, 3-6 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I don't think there's an excuse for any of those problems BTW since they're all eminently foreseeable, but do I think states/major counties are going to bat 1.000? Probably not. — PolitiTweet.org