Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC's COVID data has been screwed up lately so here's what the state's data shows for NYC: Cases (7-day average) Current: 3921 1 week ago: 3854 2 weeks ago: 3797 3 weeks ago: 3999 Positive test rate (7-day avg) Current: 4.3% 1 week ago: 4.3% 2 weeks ago: 3.9% 3 weeks ago: 4.2% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not to get TOO takey here, what feels somewhat perverse is that make-up calls are in the economic best-interest of the league; they keep the games closer. So you have an employee taking the fall for admitting to a common practice that benefits management. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So an NHL ref got fired for saying on a hot mic that he was looking to make a make-up call (Nashville had scored a power play goal in the 1st period after a Detroit penalty). Make-up calls are VERY common in hockey, though: https://t.co/NVlP2KTVqt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DLeonhardt: Great question. Two points: 1) The researchers say that the negativity spans outlets with conservative audiences and liber… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is it the Pfizer vaccine results that's the inflection point here—when COVID media coverage begins to become less negative—or is it the presidential election on 11/3? Hard to tell but if anything, the election would seem to line up slightly better with this data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan @mattyglesias @GaryParrishCBS @CBSSports @EyeOnCBBPodcast It seems like the slowest places of all are where you have a mix of Republicans (high hesitancy) and a substantial Black population (modest hesitancy + structural barriers to access). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think you're starting to see the impact of GOP vaccine hesitancy in the data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: Diff age groups in Israel have a similar pace of vaccination and face a similar variant landscape. Differences in the cur… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Our March Madness real-time win probabilities --> https://t.co/QbNxcSzRew — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In news that shouldn't be too surprising if you've followed the empirical literature on this topic, moderate candidates tended to outperform the presidential ticket in House races this year. https://t.co/ElAESFJuaG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing that strikes me is that employers—including, importantly, gig economy employers like ride-sharing services—could really be doing a lot more to help their workers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Everyone concerned with vaccine equity and access should read this, lots of super useful on-the-ground observations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: The FiveThirtyEight Store is back! https://t.co/RbJWsb0wfo https://t.co/ak6qhtZqyh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm just sort of gobsmacked at why AstraZeneca thought this was a good idea. (I don't think I've ever used the word gobsmacked before but that's just how gobsmacked I am.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think it's more fun without the blue-bloods! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Since it's sort of self-contained and was played (more or less) in its usual spot on the calendar, it's the first event that hasn't felt "disrupted". Also, people doing more in-person socializing is likely favorable for sports consumption. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC FWIW, the state's data is generally reported with less of a lag than the city's and is probably more reliable overall. It's also less detailed... but for cases and tests, it's good. https://t.co/1w2Vrzkth6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: We looked at how presidential approval, presidential voting and the House popular vote were so tied together in 2018 and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One piece of evidence that when public agencies are irrationally risk-averse about vaccines in the hopes of averting vaccine hesitancy, it winds up only increasing vaccine hesitancy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

tbh this is the Big Ten's long-delayed karmic punishment for adding Maryland and Rutgers instead of happily being the conference of the Upper Midwest, as it was meant to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @NateSilver538 This looks a lot like a dampened version of the "pandemic yoyo". People step up precautions when there's a s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @NateSilver538 Direct quote from a piece I wrote today: "We shouldn’t expect the road to herd immunity to be smooth." The p… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm someone who's been worried about knock-off consequences from lockdowns and increases in obesity would be one of them... but at the same time this really calls out for a control. How many Americans have undesired weight gain in a typical (non-COVID) year? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Random question: Could the White House mandate (via executive order) paid time off for employees to get vaccinated? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MaxCRoser: @NateSilver538 Also interesting to look at it by age group. This chart is indexed to the peak of cases and shows the relativ… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess my somewhat nuanced takeaways here are that: 1) We should perhaps expect a bumpy landing, especially if there are inequities in who's getting vaccinated 2) Nonetheless, a plateau or a small rise doesn't necessarily portend a "4th wave" 3) Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like the US, Israel has been reopening quickly and is having issues with variants. So there are a lot of currents pushing in both directions and you may not get a perfectly smooth ride. And although the US is vaccinating quickly, we're at only about ⅓ the rate of Israel's peak. https://t.co/APaSVLrU1R — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perhaps instructive that, amidst a very sharp decline in cases overall as it's now fully vaccinated 50% of its population, Israel also had a couple of plateaus that lasted 10-14 days at a time where its progress stalled out. https://t.co/67EeaivUUp https://t.co/GIY3LdenvO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@minakimes Like 9. I got a hairline fracture or something but it was mostly just embarrassing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@minakimes Fell off the elevated 18th hole green of a Putt Putt course. — PolitiTweet.org