Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidzweig @bariweiss It's very important context that Berenson not just a "skeptic" who's had his hits and misses but really is out on a limb as far as promoting dangerous misinformation (IMO) about vaccines. None of that context is in your article and that makes it much less trustworthy IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidzweig @bariweiss Berenson is not a credentialed scientist, he's the rare case of someone who *unambiguously IMO does engage in misinformation* (I'm *very* skeptical about that term generally) and yet he made up the lede in both your tweetstorm and your article at Bari's site. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly @bariweiss as someone who I'd imagine views herself as valuing transparency a bit pathetic that you have no response to this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tchanpoker @RealKidPoker @WSOP A slight counterpoint: most mixed games players play many of the mixed games; not like there are that many e.g. Razz specialists. I'd love to hear more about what WSOP could do to attract new mixed games players (e.g. add events w/lower price points & faster Day 1 structures?) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AGHamilton29: @NateSilver538 @bariweiss @davidzweig As someone who has been very critical of how Covid debate was limited on social med… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yo @bariweiss @davidzweig as someone inclined to be sympathetic to critiques of how Twitter handled COVID information, you couldn't do more to turn me off than to center your case around Alex Berenson. https://t.co/rBNB9VsxJG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I dunno but I don't think Berenson is a convincing example. If you're ever going to suspend an account for actual misinformation, that one qualifies! I also think some of the worst errors were sins of omission (e.g. failing to flag "no immunity" or "Mpx is airborne!" nonsense). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum Yes, absolutely! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People don't distinguish enough between: 1) A ~random cross-section of communications from person/organization X 2) A cherry-picked set of favorable examples from a ~comprehensive set of communications from X The threshold to move your priors should be **MUCH** higher under 2. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

10/10 I thought this was easy TBH! Maybe I can get a new job as a chatbot detector after the AI apocalypse. Fun quiz though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@steveschale Dude he only plays once a year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JCMacriNBA This year's Knicks have huge "reliably beat the worse teams and lose to the better teams" energy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Haven't seen this flight status before. Everyone's doing their best but "BEHIND SCHEDULE" seems to be a euphemism for "LOL, you thought it was a good idea to fly out of a Polar Vortex on Christmas morning?". https://t.co/lzKtbNhaBA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tszzl The personal computer also notoriously took ~15 years to show up in productivity data. Even with optimistic assumptions about GPT-4, there's a lag until such technology might be commercialized effectively. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Blue states losing population to red states could shrink the Electoral College - popular vote gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Don't forget SBF, Putin, Xi/"Zero Covid" or the Los Angeles Lakers! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2022 was a big year for mean reversion. Across quite a few domains, a lot of people and institutions who flew a little too close to the sun, with unsustainable long-term strategies, paid a price for it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen Well as I thought was reasonably clear from the context but I guess wasn't if you're trying this weird dunk on it? the impetus for this Tweet was the major election reform initiative that was part of the budget package, which definitely isn't SOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden has a LOT of significant bipartisan accomplishments in this term. Doesn't fit neatly into the narrative of ever-increasing partisanship. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro What a monster! Only likes to work 11-hour days and wants her weekend mornings undisturbed! https://t.co/aUXmMjiR0s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I find all the "Why didn't opposition research pick up on George Santos?" discourse weird when the more pressing question is why the media didn't. We don't want to rely on campaigns to do basic vetting and fact checking. And this is in NYC, which still has a robust local press. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And I say that as someone who would probably say "acting out of politics" myself. But again, the poll doesn't tell us anything at all about how widespread knowledge of this issue has become because people are forced to give a response no matter how much they know about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a bad use of polling. The poll *forces users to respond* on an issue many of them probably know little or nothing about. There is no option for "don't know" or "not sure". Many of them are just going off the limited information provided in the question prompt. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I take no pleasure in reporting this but COVID fear porn has reached the armadillos and corpses phase. https://t.co/Tlwjf84ykC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SamGreenwoodRIO @PhilGalfond Thanks for the reply! Yeah, maybe my question is less about a good player and more about a very active player. e.g. I'm not thrilled in a game where the player to my left is the only player straddling. Of course it's -EV for him, but the EV mostly goes to players on his right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PhilGalfond It depends a lot on the player and their position I think? I may fare OK against this player but there are second-order effects on EV. If I'm at a table of loose passive fish and a good high VPIP player sits on my left, that's going to completely blow up my spot against the fish. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whole thread worth reading. What's surprising (though it shouldn't be surprising: it's a predictable consequence of how they're trained) is how much AI language models will flatter user's sensibilities without any ground conception of truth. Fundamentally, they're bullshitters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @Redistrict Not crazy! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes leading roughly 62-38 in last 1.2 million votes. What say you @Redistrict? https://t.co/1csuPCVsaV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AutismCapital I mean that's what David Cameron thought would happen with Brexit. — PolitiTweet.org