Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I searched the 12 largest US metro areas on here and all of them had available vaccine appointments. I'm sure there are locations where availability is patchy or you may not get your first choice but appointments are basically available on demand. https://t.co/bStxl915VR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BE SMART: Predict something that is already happening will begin happening in a few weeks. https://t.co/Tj5zHb2naR https://t.co/VRRX2eqmU8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MEPFuller Would you say the floodgaetz are opening? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Possibly a regional thing. CT and NJ also looking a tiny bit better, NYC too although not really upstate New York. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart If the ballots are in random order (which apparently they are) then yes is literally like 1 trillion:1 or something at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @saletan: @NateSilver538 We have evidence in GA that the incumbent-checking pattern failed to hold (albeit narrowly) after the 2020 elec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the fact that Republicans *aren't* rebranding themselves when losing parties almost always do is significant. It's possible that the midterm gains that the minority party typically makes are premised upon doing so. https://t.co/2c1yYn8C7Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why the minority party tends to gain at the midterms is a complicated question, but much of it is simply that voters want to check the party in power. However, if the minority party could use a good midterm to permanently entrench itself, the calculation is a lot different. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By "existential" mean that many Democrats will think that "democracy itself is on the line" between the Big Lie (and the fact that Congressional majorities could make it easier for the GOP to overturn the 2024 election) and the increased attention to voting rights. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of ways to lose a midterm—getting crushed among independents, for instance. But one way is with a low turnout from your base (e.g. Dems in 2010) and I tend to think that won't be a problem for Dems in 2022 because their voters will see the stakes as existential. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @badams78: Podcast 30 with @NateSilver538 and @TomDwan is up! Youtube: https://t.co/Ru0rqHByTK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of you clearly haven't adjusted to the fact that news cycles are much slower when Trump isn't president. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren Sort of crazy how closely it tracks with the state's borders. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York City had a big spike in vaccinations that started on ~February 26, and it wouldn't be surprising if our numbers started improving 4-5 weeks later as a result (given delays in reporting and the vaccines taking effect). https://t.co/Kof84Ejuf1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Starting to see a pinch of improvement in the COVID numbers in New York City. Still safest to characterize this as a plateau. But chances of avoiding another surge are probably improving. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/hAEQH6JnKr https://t.co/gvhZEgswA0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: I'm often asked how someone can contribute an article to FiveThirtyEight. Well, we've written a pitch guide to make that pr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke 5:38. Ok, that's a lie. 8:35. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there's something else to note, too. The focus on the national picture obscures important regional differences. Michigan is currently having a VERY serious surge, for instance (depicted below). NY/NJ/CT seemed to be flirting with a surge but it has since flattened out. Etc. https://t.co/KYc0GkfHsH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The data series, as you may have guessed, is COVID-19 cases in the US. Only 11% of you described the series as "rising" so it's strange to see routine descriptions to that effect, or even references to a "fourth wave", etc. Always check the underlying data for yourself! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Instant poll: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Would you say the quantity depicted in this data series is rising, falling or steady? https://t.co/Zsr1FZnYiV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@grace_panetta Lol I might have ruined it by tweeting about them. But off-and-on availability throughout NYC all day. Probably won't be a lot of difficulty booking appointments by the end of the week. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah I wish there was more focus on this. People really need at least 1.5 days of paid time off for each shot, assuming the possibly of side effects the next day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First day of universal eligibility in NY State and there are currently open appointments at the Javits Center in NYC as well as nearly everywhere upstate. We're nearly past the point of being supply-constrained and need to improve outreach to skeptical and disadvantaged groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Models in the CDC ensemble completely disagree with one another about whether cases are going to go up or down over the next several weeks. https://t.co/1GxXskeUyl https://t.co/b4fC14TToL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Yeah, exactly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin I think there's a somewhat more complicated feedback loop, in that the mainstream news audience mostly leans left, showing how much you supported lockdowns became a partisan signifier to some on the left, and bad news tends to reinforce the rationale for that support. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One article I'd read the hell out of is one on what could be done, either through legislative or executive action, to prevent partisans from overturning or failing to certify election results. HR1 doesn't do much on that but are there other steps that could? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion If you look at the deaths data in those countries, it generally tells a more optimistic story than the cases data, which would be consistent with the idea of the Chinese vaccines being imperfect but still rather useful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I'm just trying to interpret the evidence from that Derek Lowe post, which suggest that they're >> than nothing but probably short of Pfizer/Moderna. If you have ~60% efficacy against COVID 1.0 and presumably less against variants, gonna take longer for the pandemic to slow down. — PolitiTweet.org