Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, turnout tends to be low in local races in NYC, so ordinarily, politically-active progressives would represent a higher share of the "likely voter" electorate. But for various reasons, Yang holds appeal to voters who don't ordinarily turn out in local races. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of media coverage implicitly or explicitly centers around the preferences of youngish, college-educated, politically active progressives. That's certainly a sizable contingent in NYC. But maybe it's 10-15% of the electorate in a city where 67% of voters are Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing to remember about the NYC mayoral electorate is that 2/3 of registered voters in New York City are Democrats! They're incredibly diverse in all senses of that term: race, class, language, LGBTQ+, and certainly in their political orientations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While it may not be safe to treat donors as a leading indicator, one of the bigger problems for Trump's 2024 chances is simply that people will be bored by his shtick when he's no longer the most powerful man in the world. https://t.co/zLvr4Rqdb2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Private-sector vaccine messaging involves much less hedging than the public-sector version on getting back to normal. https://t.co/H3NJ5878Lo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sorry, forgot the link to the story: https://t.co/wiVEYVExaY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hard not to see parallels between the NYC mayoral race and the 2020 Democratic primary. Politicians read into "the zeitgeist" and it pushes them to the left. But the zeitgeist differs quite a bit from what rank-and-file voters want and so you have two moderates leading the race. https://t.co/aKf3eo7TWX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not only is there not a surge but all COVID metrics are declining in New York City. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/RIcMK9P8KQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nature is healing. https://t.co/Plsg0U8Axp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Give it time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

deGrom has struck out 14 batters on 95 pitches and is training 1-0 heading into the bottom of the 8th. Mets baseball is back, baby! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @davidshor: @agraybee @NateSilver538 Back of the envelope with conservative assumptions, your per hour risk of killing somebody driving… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Jacob deGrom start and vaccines going at the same time, 'ya love to see it. https://t.co/DfMtFskoyd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's pure gaslighting at this point to say we don't know whether vaccinated people spread the virus. Tons of studies—including from the CDC!!!—show that vaccines massively reduce (though probably not entirely eliminate) transmission. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What are the best adjectives for people who receive different types of vaccines? Pfizerian? Modernese? Johnsonite? Zenecan? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc You've done astonishingly great work throughout the pandemic and I'm happy to agree to disagree for now! Have a great weekend. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc I love nuance, complication, etc! I'm just saying the survey data suggests the nuance isn't working. And for various reasons, including reducing hesitancy, I think "you can go back to normal after completing your vaccine course" is the best non-nuanced message. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc It's late and I'm not going to get into it right now, but I think you're significantly underestimating the harms that stem from people not seeing family and friends, not going to school or church, increased social isolation, lower quality of life, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc I don't know. The message from the media and from public health officials about how vaccinated people should behave has been incredibly muddled. Maybe it's time to simplify down to "once your vaccine course is complete, you can go back to normal". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc It's not surprising that people who aren't planning on getting vaccinated underestimate the risks of COVID. I think it suggests a communications failure that people who *have* been vaccinated are still so worried about COVID. I find that a bit surprising but mostly discouraging. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah in some ways it's crazy that the guidelines are so proscriptive when people vary greatly in their risk-tolerance, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I went to a baseball game the other day and it was Really Good. Outdoors though and NYC sports venues require vaccination or a negative test. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit I do wonder if there's a little bit of response bias toward weird-introverts-who-read-too-much-news in online polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

54% of people who *have already been vaccinated* are still very or somewhat worried about catching COVID. But only 29% of people who *refuse to get vaccinated* are very or somewhat worried about catching COVID. Great job, everyone. https://t.co/U6DN7GCNIg https://t.co/07Eu4v5qqU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden It's weird to me that you'll have these vigorous, in-the-weeds debates among epidemiologists and then for some reason the debate dies down once it becomes a subject of public attention. The (still largely unresolved I think?!) debate about seasonality was another one like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's something analogous here to the "wet bias" in meteorology, where TV meteorologists semi-deliberately overpredict rain because reputationally they tend to get more criticism for false negatives (it rains when they say it won't) than false positives. https://t.co/EnBiuQgufG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You see something similar now where the mainstream press treats it as all but inevitable that the US will experience a new surge. Certainly possible and *some* experts do expect one. And yet, the models tracked by the CDC are *all over the place*; there's no consensus at all. https://t.co/xzBFcRk38w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a non-expert on this stuff, I don't necessarily trust my judgment to sort out competing expert claims. However, I do find it interesting when there's a range of expert opinion and only a certain portion of that range tends to make it into popular media coverage about COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I'd add is that contact-tracing data from the UK found an advantage of ~33% (as compared to the 50-70% that you sometimes see cited elsewhere) and I can imagine contact-tracing is more robust than methods based on statistical extrapolation. https://t.co/8lIj9wcclm https://t.co/S6OAe4sYRX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a long, interesting thread on how much more transmissible B.1.1.7 (aka "the UK variant") really is. — PolitiTweet.org