Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 17, 2021

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Fri Apr 09 14:13:25 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's something analogous here to the "wet bias" in meteorology, where TV meteorologists semi-deliberately overpredict rain because reputationally they tend to get more criticism for false negatives (it rains when they say it won't) than false positives. https://t.co/EnBiuQgufG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You see something similar now where the mainstream press treats it as all but inevitable that the US will experience a new surge. Certainly possible and *some* experts do expect one. And yet, the models tracked by the CDC are *all over the place*; there's no consensus at all. https://t.co/xzBFcRk38w — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden It's weird to me that you'll have these vigorous, in-the-weeds debates among epidemiologists and then for some reason the debate dies down once it becomes a subject of public attention. The (still largely unresolved I think?!) debate about seasonality was another one like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2021