Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol If the parties are more extreme though you'd expect to have fewer swing voters I think? It's more likely that at least one of the parties is unacceptably far away from you on some key issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin According to #science it would be the size of a hockey puck. https://t.co/KC2uvPEzt3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@KevinZollman In poker you'll sometimes hear people say this when they're contemplating a "big" fold or call that relies on physical reads or other hard-to-articulate intuitions about an opponent's hand strength. In my experience they're usually right, i.e. was the rational decision. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jessicagelman: Loved this discussion with Mike D'Antoni and partnering with THE @NateSilver538. We were unfiltered and Mike's insights… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey Thank you Daryl! Now that I'm 45 I acknowledge my chances of becoming an elite professional athlete are slim, but I'm not going to give up on the dream! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davewiner In some ways it is! I find Twitter less annoying these days but also less "engaging". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A little hard to put your finger on it but it sort of feels like Twitter in the Elon era is evolving from people yelling at one another to yelling past one another. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 In which @KFaulders, @baseballot and @NateSilver538 catch me up on everything I missed re: Kevin McCarthy and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Russian Facebook disinfo!" also served as a convenient bit of cope for the media to deflect criticism of its own handing of 2016, e.g. "BUT HER EMAILS". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Stapes You just have to internalize that doner kebabs are almost always the superior option in Europe when taco- or burrito-like cravings arrive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Stapes I'll go to Europe once a year or so and hit a point where it's like "too much of this completely delicious local cuisine: it's time for some tacos!" and it's always always a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @DouthatNYT That's why we need a parliamentary system so we can have the Reply Guys Party and the Just Asking Questions Party and the Only Really Cares About Taxes And Fantasy Football Party. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @mattyglesias @DouthatNYT Idk I think people who are well-aligned on >80% of policy positions held by the Democratic or Republican parties are the outliers in terms of the general population. I think of coalitions in a 2-party system as intrinsically being fragile. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @mattyglesias @DouthatNYT I think COVID is also an example where personality traits heavily influenced political preferences. As new political phenomena come along these may predict how new alliances form, e.g. it wouldn't be surprising if Yglesias and Douthat align on key issues in 2042. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @DouthatNYT Certainly in the short run, people will need to form political coalitions with people they clash with in terms of "personality type", and social media makes that harder in several respects. In the long run, I wonder if personality type will predict future political alignment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I sort of come out on the opposite side of this think that revealed preferences in terms of who we find insightful or engaging or vapid or annoying reflects differences that are more "real" in some sense than ostensible political affiliation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @TheStalwart: @NateSilver538 One step ahead of you https://t.co/NcV4jzIKvH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I was going to joke that this sounds like the hashtag for a third-division British soccer club but when I searched for it this was literally what came up. #MTFC https://t.co/YyImCf5mpX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"It's important to stand up to bullies" is one of those obvious things that midwits don't get and Congress is kind of the kingdom of the midwit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think that probably gives too little responsibility to Schumer. Congressional leadership ought to have some persuasive ability and this shouldn't have been that hard a sell as the debt ceiling increase would have been in D electoral interest as well as the country's interest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd I don't know how attainable the Sinema and Manchin votes were but I tend to doubt D leadership gave themselves much chance of holding the House? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Democrats had a good legislative term in 2022 but not passing a debt ceiling increase could be an RBG-not-retiring magnitude blunder. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@FernyReyes2 @mattyglesias Yeah re: point 3, I grew up in a college town and IMO college towns and neighborhoods punch below their weight foodwise. Maybe there's something about trying to split the difference between the student crowd and the faculty crowd that lends itself to "solid" but medicore places. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think there's a question of "how good is the food if you walk into a place at random" vs "how good a list can you curate @ various cuisines and price points if you put some effort in". I tend to think Boston underperforms more by the latter criteria than the former one but idk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Enjoyed today's mailbag but feels like there needs to be a full Slow Boring investigation on why Boston has such mediocre food. There are some highlights here and there but it's really quite an outlier in that department relative to pretty much every other major US metro area. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin I think you could argue that New Yorkers are at a 40-year low for California envy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah that's definitely related! Although I also think omakase is benefiting from a perfect storm of that + health trends + rich Americans tending to value their time highly (e.g. spending $300 for 90 minutes at an omakase is a better flex than $300 for 3 hours at a tasting menu). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Smallness can still denote exclusively. Small restaurants or food stalls. Small cocktail or wine bars or coffee shops. Small clothing stores or art galleries. Especially if adjacent to, as a contrast, big public spaces e.g. parks or reclaimed industrial spaces. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOL is this an NFL game? https://t.co/37M6Y8VhlX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You have one or two dozen House Republicans who will be vulnerable for reelection in 2024, they have strong incentives not to empower the most extreme/wacky members of their caucus, and they can deny McCarthy (or anyone else) a majority; it's pretty decent leverage. — PolitiTweet.org