Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah but it's a more interesting question than 90% of the shit people debate on here during slow news days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Slow news day so here's a "fun" question: If things got so bad that some blue coastal states eventually seceded from the U.S. after a democratic crisis, would they retain most features of the U.S. Constitution or go mostly from scratch with e.g. a parliamentary system instead? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tag yourself I'm The Elite Circles https://t.co/Vzn3qAcK6Q https://t.co/vB5BeShT3B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These prices are probably reasonably fair (though note they add up to >100%). Adams has lead on initial preference in 13 consecutive polls and the evidence on who benefits from ranked choice voting is all over the place. https://t.co/q43ZhyqLQj https://t.co/7TVxPbDeOC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Brian_Riedl: Some "Twitter is not real life" data, using Pew surveys: - Twitter users are D+15 - which would tie HI & VT for the most l… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm a fan of RCV overall, I think it's slightly more likely to produce a winner that reflects the "will of the electorate" than plurality-take-all, but the idea that it leads to more civil campaigning is not looking so hot in the closing days of the NYC mayoral race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I continue to think the pandemic catalyzed a lot of political developments by forcing us all to become Way Too Online. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JedKolko @Noahpinion Yeah the density of NYC allows for a lot more triangulation, e.g. let's say I'm meeting an older friend who is hard of hearing (so want something quiet) and doesn't want to walk too far... I still probably have several pretty good options within whatever food category they want. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Also I think some of these categories would benefit from a middlebrow vs. highbrow distinction. NYC has fairly good highbrow Mexican food but for everyday Mexican food we get our ass totally kicked by LA, Texas, etc. OTOH both our middlebrow and highbrow Italian is pretty strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Maybe not true when I moved there 12 years ago but sushi pretty clearly NYC > LA now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think we know very much about this. The GOP had a very bad 2018 and a mediocre 2020, capped off by a very bad result in the Georgia runoffs. And that was before 1/6 and everything that's happened since then. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it's still zero sum: Garcia and Yang are improving their chances by weakening Adams's and Wiley's. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although Yang and Garcia are *somewhat* ideologically compatible, this is likely much more of a tactical decision: RCV gives the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place candidates (Garcia, Yang, Wiley in some order) a lot of incentive to coordinate against the 1st place candidate (Adams). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is pretty clearly a smart move for both Garcia and Yang. Also arguably a flaw in ranked choice voting that these sorts of strategic alliances can matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Someone should feel free to expand on this, but I guess I've started to think of a "Swiss cheese model" of prevention of electoral subversion (analogous to various layers of protection against COVID) and a lot of the layers are being stripped away. https://t.co/ZGeXvSSC0I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Worrying. https://t.co/bj4OywrJRo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Isn't pot a good example of an incrementalist approach working, i.e. state-by-state and decriminalization or medical marijuana as a first step before "full blown" legalization? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @steveschale: Michael Jordan is still dunking on Stockton. While Stockton is peddling things off reddit, Jordan gave ten million to ope… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is probably right and of course the problem is that if you're always tuning the dial up to 11, it's hard to distinguish the biggest emergencies (such as the potential for GOP electoral subversion in the near future) from more routine problems. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Guy: ... Girl: Cool meme, what's it called? Guy: ... Girl: Cool meme, what's it called? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss @allahpundit Just take a left on Cymwry'nwnty — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit It sounds like a disease you'd get in the 19th Century. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're even behind (famously hesitant about vaccines) *France*? Man, not good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I've been meaning to do a Thread on this article, which (maybe without entirety realizing it) argues that the policy recommendations issued by public health authorities both *are and should be* infused with a left/communitarian/anti-individualist political viewpoint. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit It will still be the law in the United States of Indiana and Kentucky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Has there ever been an NBA season where, at this point in the playoffs, it was less clear who the favorite to win the Championship was? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The risk of a vaccinated young person getting severely ill from COVID is *incredibly* low. No, it's not zero. But it's incredibly low, and the trauma from keeping her isolated when she's clearly quite miserable is almost certainly worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, Manchin's revisions contain a pretty good ratio of meat to fat (more so than the original HR1/S1 in some ways). What's still missing, though, is anything really to deal with electoral subversion, such as amending the Electoral Count Act. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I were *fully vaccinated* and my parents didn't let me go to summer camp after I'd had a lonely and "terrible" school year by their own admission, I wouldn't *never* forgive them but I'd be mad about it for a long, long time. https://t.co/OSF9A4ftim https://t.co/Muer4OaO7i — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @awprokop: Notable shift in Manchin's messaging re: For the People Act today. Previously, he said lack of bipartisanship was a deal-brea… — PolitiTweet.org