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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We've added our old friend the scenario analysis chart to our forecast interactive. There's an 11 percent chance Trump wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College (<1% chance of the other way around). https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/m2oH2XMH3p — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: We added some awesome detail to the state pages of our presidential forecast -- a step-by-step look at how the forecast goe… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nataliemj10: Ariel said it better: https://t.co/uwSWY8anuJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nataliemj10: Re #2: THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS. Stay in your lane, JPM. https://t.co/kfktYNssWS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BrendanNyhan @jonmladd Since you think the Abramowitz model is strong, happy to agree to make it the standard by which we judge these and settle the debate that way. It's prediction for the the electoral vote this year is: Biden 996, Trump -453 I'll take the under on Biden. https://t.co/Nb2HFqaLR3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, per @COVID19Tracking, looks like Florida's numbers are going to be depressed for a bit here because of the hurricane: https://t.co/0QQpclHQb3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris It was "less biased than the polls in 201"6 based on one pollster running numbers **only after the fact once the results were known** and that probably just reflected the fact that the one poll happened to do a better job of capturing Trump's are of the white working-class vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One other factor to consider in how COVID could affect election forecasts is that variation in state COVID rates could conceivably be a factor in support for Trump, which could create some unusual correlations: — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @williamfleitch: @BenjySarlin @NateSilver538 This is what I was saying yesterday. His mere presence makes it impossible to have serious… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nursekelsey: If you want to know how we get people to comply with wearing face masks, ask a sexologist. It’s not our first rodeo when i… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @shearm: @realDonaldTrump's idea for a "statuary park" is not original. I wrote about one of the failed efforts to build one near Willia… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Deaths did decline again week over week, despite some individual states (notably, Arizona) posting high numbers. Obviously, it's uncertain how long that will continue. There's a bit of a whac-a-mole issue where a state will post OK numbers one day, and terrible ones the next day. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @poniewozik: @NateSilver538 Fox News' 8-11 p.m. lineup. Trump's power is more media- than party-based. Even then, the damage might be mo… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @poniewozik: @NateSilver538 Fox News' 8-11 p.m. lineup. Trump's power is more media- than party-based. Even then, the damage might be mo… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @WesleyLowery: As always, everything can be true. The violence can be the result of black residents, and also white anarchists and anti… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ABC: The first dog in the U.S. presumed to have COVID-19 may not have been infected with the virus after all, according to test results… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen @mattyglesias 2. Some pundits have an incentive to create partisan narratives (FWIW, I think Trump deserves a very, very low grade for his COVID response... but I also think the data on how much better worse things are getting is noisy and complicated). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @poniewozik: I also have no prediction on the election BUT it's a good point to keep in mind. The incentives in many fields, not just pu… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
*Either* the worker *or* the vulnerable household member could use the hotel room, whatever works best for the family. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @friscojosh: Good explainer thread from my very sharp quantitative editor. https://t.co/WPBrr2NGhI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @kjhealy: One more thing. The "Cubic Fit" from the CEA is that red line. But what's that weird bit where it turns from red dashes to pin… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, I wish we knew more about how much these activities have the potential to increase R. At least some evidence seems to suggest that outdoors is much safer than indoors, for instance. We're going to find out, I guess, because I don't expect people will stay inside all summer. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @nataliemj10: Unless it's an aerial photo, you cannot tell how far apart people are once they're about 20 feet away from the camera. It'… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The test used by NYC claims to have 93% specificity = a 7% false negative rate. That's a nontrivial problem. It may partly counteract the issue with false positives or even outweigh it, depending on the false positive rate and the true rate of infection. https://t.co/MUE08IzKT1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
New York's numbers remain quite encouraging, as I've tweeted about, but that's a good news/bad news situation. It means the rest of the country isn't making that much progress since most of the progress we are seeing comes from NY (+ NY/CT). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @friscojosh: This is rad https://t.co/rkp3GyYdYU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Newly-reported US COVID-19 deaths: Mon4/6—1182 Sun 4/5—1184 Sat 4/4—1352 Fri 4/3—1178 Thu 4/2—1084 Wed 4/1—954 Tue 3/31—807 Mon 3/30—511 Sun 3/29—463 Sat 3/28—435 Fri 3/27—367 Thu 3/26—263 Wed 3/25—225 Tue 3/24—204 Mon 3/23—73 Sun 3/22—126 Sat 3/21—53 Fri 3/20—59 Thu 3/19—48 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @JustinWolfers: Over 1,000 Americans dying each day, and a relentless upward trajectory which suggests things could get (exponentially)… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @friscojosh: Tremendous article by Jay Boice on expert consensus around Covid-19 outcomes. I haven’t seen this analysis anywhere else.… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ParkerMolloy: what the actual fuck is happening https://t.co/dfEHeXzOI0 — PolitiTweet.org
